Elon Musk says Tesla FSD V12.4 is another big jump in capabilities and the training compute limitations are almost gone.
AI expert James Douma had said that with additional training and data, he expected FSD V12.X to reach 0.1-1% of the interventions for Tesla FSD v11.X.
If the level of improvement expected by James Douma were achieved then 1% intervention levels would be reached with three steps of 20% less each time.
100 interventions, 20 interventions, 4 interventions, 0.8 interventions.
If the rate of FSD training enabled 1 full release or improvement of an existing release every month, then 100X better than FSD v11.X would happen in May-June 2024.
IF the Nvidia H100 chip sales for 2023 is correct, then Tesla had 15,000 Nvidia H100s in 2023. These should be installed and operating by now. This means that Tesla has at least 65 Exaflops of compute for training.
Tesla had targeted 100 exaflops of training compute by October, 2024. If Tesla bought 10,000 Nvidia H100s in 2024 then Tesla will have over 100 Exaflops of training compute installed by May 2024.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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