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Elon Musk believes that ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will be created within about three years and it will be smarter than the smartest human at most anything and will be able to write as good a novel as J.K. Rowling, discover new physics, or invent new technology.
Martin Shkreli revealed that training of OpenAI GPT-5 is expected to require a budget of $2.0-$2.5 billion. The training process will involve the use of 500,000 H100s Tensor Core GPUs over 90 days or an alternative configuration.
The estimated cost per Nvidia H100 chip and peripheral components is covered by Nvidia’s street price, which ranges from $25,000 to $30,000. The development of chips like the H100 requires substantial investment in research and development, with Nvidia’s AI-accelerating products already sold out until 2024. The AI accelerator market is expected to be worth around $150 billion by 2027.
Definitions for AI
AGI=artificial general intelligence=a machine that performs at the level of an average (median) human.
ASI=artificial superintelligence=a machine that performs at the level of an expert human in practically any field.
Turing Test
In this test, 2 humans and a machine look at something they haven’t seen and converse about it. The conversation is recorded and an evaluator determines which descriptor is the machine. The machine is only disqualified if the evaluator is positive it can identify it.
The Coffee Test (Wozniak)
If AGI machines need to understand the world as well as humans do, they must know how to make a good coffee. In this test an ai robot is required to go into an average home and figure out how to make coffee. It involves finding the coffee machine and adding coffee, as well as sourcing a mug and correctly brewing the hot drink.
Robot College Student Tests
The machine would take the same university classes as humans and complete the exam. GPT4 is already scoring very well at these tests.
Employment Test
This is where we should begin to worry about an I-Robot world. This test determines whether a machine can perform at least as well as humans in the same jobs
Elon Musk predicts AGI within next three years.
During a polarizing (to say the least) interview, Elon said the world is less than three years away from AGI — and will have the ability to “write as good a novel as J.K. Rowling, discover new physics, or invent new technology.” pic.twitter.com/7urCeorijn
— Rowan Cheung (@rowancheung) December 1, 2023
A speed superintelligence is an intellect that is just like a human mind but faster. This is conceptually the easiest form of superintelligence to analyze. — Bostrom, Nick. Superintelligence. OUP Oxford. Kindle Edition.
Collective superintelligence. A system composed of a large number of smaller intellects such that the system’s overall performance across many very general domains vastly outstrips that of any current cognitive system.
Quality superintelligence. A system that is at least as fast as a human mind and vastly qualitatively smarter.
As requested by @dralandthompson , here is the data updated from https://t.co/5zW33mS4VO, fitted to exponential growth. Seems we will reach AGI in july 2025? pic.twitter.com/Ei4CFwkBVz
— Dennis Xiloj (@denjohx) June 23, 2023
LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025.
that’s a huge deal. the implications are far more profound than the threat of the models getting things a bit wrong today.
— Mustafa Suleyman (@mustafasuleyman) June 9, 2023
Mass Produced Humanoid Robots are Coming
Mass produced humanoid robots are coming. The humanoid robots will have the AI systems added to them.
How quickly will they enhance or replace factory work? Like mass produced Futurama Bender but performing the factory work tasks instead of being a lazy drinking robot.
If Elon is correct and we have Artificial Super Intelligence in three years. This would be very much like the Star Trek Data Android for intelligence and productivity. However, we would choose to not make Data’s super strength and some other good for stories capabilities.
The relevant aspects of mass humanoid robots combined with Super AI would be the economic abundance and avoiding negative aspects. We have the choice of using the systems and the opportunity to enhance our world and lives.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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