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Advancements in our understanding of solar eruptions have led to groundbreaking progress in predicting space storms, surpassing previous accuracy levels.
Scientists can now accurately forecast the speed and timing of a coronal mass ejection (CME) before it even erupts from the Sun, providing crucial insight into potential geomagnetic storms that could disrupt terrestrial technology.
CMEs are powerful eruptions of gas and magnetic fields from the Sun. These eruptions can lead to geomagnetic storms that have the potential to disrupt technology on Earth’s surface and in orbit. This is why there is a global effort to enhance space weather forecasting.
Researchers at Aberystwyth University will be sharing their latest findings at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting in Hull, emphasizing how advancements in this field can significantly safeguard crucial infrastructure essential for our daily lives.
The team made their breakthrough by examining specific regions on the Sun known as “Active Regions,” where powerful magnetic fields give rise to CMEs. By observing how these regions changed before, during, and after an eruption, the researchers focused on the critical height of the Active Regions. This critical height is where the magnetic field becomes unstable and can trigger a CME.
“By measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height, we can determine this critical height,” said lead researcher Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University.
“This data can then be used along with a geometric model which is used to track the true speed of CMEs in three dimensions, rather than just two, which is essential for precise predictions.”
She added: “Our findings reveal a strong relationship between the critical height at CME onset and the true CME speed. This insight allows us to predict the CME’s speed and, consequently, its arrival time on Earth, even before the CME has fully erupted.”
The impact of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) on Earth can be both breathtaking and dangerous. While these events can create stunning aurorae, commonly known as the Northern Lights in the Northern Hemisphere, they also seriously threaten our technological infrastructure, including satellites, power grids, and communication networks.
Therefore, it is crucial for scientists to accurately predict when CMEs will reach our planet in order to mitigate potential damage. By improving our understanding of CME speed shortly after the eruption, we can provide advanced warnings, allowing for better preparation and protection of critical systems.
“Understanding and using the critical height in our forecasts improves our ability to warn about incoming CMEs, helping to protect the technology that our modern lives depend on,” Gandhi said.
“Our research not only enhances our understanding of the Sun’s explosive behavior but also significantly improves our ability to forecast space weather events. This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day.”
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