Tesla is unveiling the Robotax on August 8, 2024 there is an ongoing ramp of the FSD (full self driving) software. What do we no know and not know about this rapidly changing situation?
This is all happening as Tesla’s sales growth is “between two growth waves”. Tesla has cut over 10% of its staff today.
Tesla cut the monthly subscription price of FSD to $99 per month.
If 10% of the 2 million possible US and Canada Tesla owners were to buy the subscription this would be $240 million per year.
If 20% of the 2 million possible US and Canada Tesla owners were to buy the subscription this would be $480 million per year.
If 10% of the 1.5 million possible China Tesla owners were to buy the subscription this would be $180 million per year.
If 20% of the 1.5 million possible China Tesla owners were to buy the subscription this would be $360 million per year.
Any near term actual production ramp for a new line for Robotaxi’s were require factory staff. This would be in Austin and/or Shanghai. This would require a few thousand to ten thousand factory staff.
Cutting global staff today would suggest that Tesla is at last 12 months away from pushing hard on a new Robotaxi or model 2 line.
Tesla Shanghai was able to seamlessly ramp the new Model 3 line a few months ago. This produced 30,000 units per month. This would seem be the maximum near term level of additional robotaxi production. Ramping with a few thousand units for a dozen Waymo scale (250 robotaxis) with safety drivers before removing the driver in six-12 months seems like a necessary step from August 2024 to around August 2025.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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