It’s mid-July, and we’re about two months away from the iPhone 16 launch. Many people will tell you now’s not the time to buy an iPhone. You should wait for one of the four iPhone 16 variants coming in September. Or you should wait for Apple to drop the price of the old iPhone 15 and iPhone 14 you’re eying.
I’m one of those people. I’m about to tell you that you should not buy a new iPhone in the coming two months unless you really have to. But this isn’t the advice I’d give you any summer ahead of a new iPhone generation’s release. This time it’s different.
This time, I’ll tell you there’s only one type of iPhone you should buy before the next-gen model arrives. Some of you might have guessed the reason already. It’s all about Apple Intelligence.
Buyers seem to prefer cheaper, older iPhones
A new report from CIRP shows that iPhone 15 sales continue to slide compared to the performance of their direct predecessors.
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CIRP looked at iPhone sales figures for the Q2 2024 quarter, concluding that the iPhone 15 accounted for 67% of US sales. That marks a massive decline compared to the iPhone 14 sales performance during the June 2023 quarter. The then-new iPhones accounted for 79% of total sales.
The figures show a continued decline in popularity for the iPhone 15 compared to its predecessor. In the March quarter, the four iPhone 15 accounted for 68% of sales compared to the 75% share the iPhone 14 got in the March 2023 quarter.
I will say that the iPhone 14 generation is very different from any iPhone generation. The iPhone 14 Pros were largely unavailable during the key Christmas 2022 sales period, following wide plant closures in China during a round of COVID lockdowns. Many people bought the iPhone 14 Pros in early 2023.
Back to the CIRP report, the analysts also found that the “legacy” models, or the non-iPhone 15 models that Apple sells, showed a boost in sales in the June 2024 quarter.
The iPhone 14/Plus accounted for 17% of sales, compared to 11% for the iPhone 13/mini pair during the June 2023 quarter. Similarly, the iPhone 13 got a 10% share during the June 2024 quarter, compared to 4% for the iPhone 12 during the June 2023 quarter.
The only iPhone you should buy right now
The iPhone 15 Pro Max is the only strong player of the iPhone 15 series, with a 22% share in the June 2024 quarter that matches its predecessor’s performance during the June 2023 quarter.
If the data is accurate, it shows that iPhone buyers tend to prefer older iPhone models that are cheaper than the iPhone 15 variants. This is where I tell you not to buy any iPhone 13 or iPhone 14 models right now.
If you want Apple Intelligence in your future, or smarter Siri, built-in ChatGPT, and a lot of generative AI features you’ll soon take for granted, these iPhones aren’t good. They’ll run iOS 18, sure. But they can’t handle the AI. Similarly, the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus won’t support Apple Intelligence.
After WWDC 2024, I said that iOS 18 marks the biggest fragmentation in the iPhone experience since Apple started making them. We’ll have hundreds of millions of iPhones on iOS 18 without Apple Intelligence and hundreds of millions of iPhones on iOS 18 with Apple Intelligence. The latter category will increase as newer generations arrive.
With all that in mind, if you absolutely need to get an iPhone right now, you should buy an iPhone 15 Pro or 15 Pro Max. These are the only iPhones in Apple’s lineup that will support the AI features in iOS 18. The Pro models will also be discontinued this fall, as the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus replace them.
What if I don’t need Apple Intelligence in iOS 18?
Yes, the iPhone 15 Pros are the most expensive iPhones in Apple’s lineup, and you might be shopping on a budget. But the iPhone is your main computer. You should futureproof the handset and use it for at least four years.
You should get an iPhone that can run Apple Intelligence even if you think you don’t need one. Apple’s AI will only get better, and you’ll start using some of those features without even stopping to consider you’re using genAI apps.
Finally, if you’re convinced you don’t need Apple Intelligence, waiting might still be a good idea. The iPhone 15 and iPhone 14 models will get cheaper once the iPhone 16 arrives. You’re looking at savings of $100 for each variant, the customary discount for these handsets.
There’s also the case of the iPhone SE 4 coming next spring, which could be an even better alternative. But there’s only so much waiting a person should do when buying a new gadget. Otherwise, you’ll never pick anything.
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