Why the Bangladesh election is guaranteed to hand Sheikh Hasina a fifth term

Key PointsIt’s Bangladesh’s 12th election since independence in 1971.The BNP has urged the public not to participate in what it calls a “sham” election.Hasina branded the opposition party a “terrorist organisation” after they boycotted the polls.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is set to win a fourth straight term and the fifth overall for her Awami League-led alliance in a general election on Sunday, after a boycott led by an opposition party she branded a “terrorist organisation”.

Hasina has presided over exceptional economic growth in a country once beset by grinding poverty, but her government has been accused of rampant human rights abuses and a ruthless opposition crackdown.

Rights groups say the country of 170 million is headed for virtual one-party rule, after the boycott by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and some of its smaller allies.

Calls to boycott ‘sham’ election

The BNP, whose ranks have been decimated by mass arrests, is leading a weekend general strike urging the public not to participate in what it calls a “sham” election.

But Hasina, 76, urged the public to cast their ballots and show their faith in the democratic process.

“The BNP is a terrorist organisation,” she told waiting reporters after casting her vote at the Dhaka City College alongside her sister and daughter.

“I am trying my best to ensure that democracy should continue in this country,” she added.

Dhaka University students hold placards as they protest, demanding an election under a caretaker government, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Saturday. Source: AAP / Moniul Alam/EPA

The United States and Western nations, important customers of its garment industry, have called for a free and fair election — the country’s 12th since independence in 1971.

Early signs suggested turnout would be low, despite widespread reports of carrot-and-stick inducements aimed at bolstering the poll’s legitimacy.

Some voters said earlier they had been threatened with the confiscation of government benefit cards needed to access welfare payments if they refused to cast ballots for the ruling Awami League.

“They said they would seize it from me if I don’t vote,” Lal Mia, 64, told AFP in the central district of Faridpur. “They said since the government feeds us, we have to vote for them.”

Here’s what we know

About 120 million voters will choose from nearly 2,000 candidates for the 300 directly elected parliamentary seats. There are 436 independent candidates, the most since 2001.Polls will stay open until 5 pm (11 pm AEDT) with results expected after midnight.

Policemen assist voters outside a polling station in Dhaka on Sunday. Source: AAP / Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP

The BNP says the Awami League has propped up “dummy” candidates as independents to try to make the election look credible, a claim the ruling party denies.

The BNP, which also boycotted the 2014 poll but took part in 2018, has asked people to shun the poll and called a two-day strike nationwide from Saturday.

Hasina, who has refused BNP demands to resign and cede power to a neutral authority to run the election, accuses the opposition of instigating anti-government protests that have rocked Dhaka since late October and killed at least 14 people.

With the ballot outcome all but assured and a high risk of violence, turnout could be low on Sunday.

Violence erupted on the eve of the election, with a passenger train fire, which the government called arson, killing at least four people while several polling booths and institutions were set ablaze around the country.

Four people were killed after a passenger train caught fire on 5 January, with police suspecting an arson attack during unrest ahead of national elections. Source: AAP / Habibur Rahman/ABACA

Troops have fanned out across Bangladesh to maintain peace while nearly 800,000 police, paramilitary and police auxiliaries will guard polling booths on Sunday.

The BNP and other parties staged months of protests last year demanding Hasina step down ahead of the vote.

Around 25,000 opposition cadres including the BNP’s entire local leadership were arrested in the ensuing crackdown, the party says. The government puts the figure at 11,000.

Scattered protests continued in the days ahead of the election, including a few hundred opposition supporters who marched through central Dhaka on Friday — a shadow of the hundreds of thousands seen at rallies last year.

Politics in the world’s eighth-most populous country was long dominated by the rivalry between Hasina, the daughter of the country’s founding leader, and two-time premier Khaleda Zia, wife of a former military ruler.

In her last 15 years in power, Hasina has been credited with turning around Bangladesh’s economy and the garment industry.

But critics have also accused her of authoritarianism, human rights violations, crackdowns on free speech and suppression of dissent.

Members of Ganatantra Mancha, an alliance of six political parties, take part in a demonstration during a 48-hour nationwide strike in Dhaka on Saturday. Source: AAP / Monirul Alam/EPA

Her main rival, BNP leader Zia, is effectively under house arrest on corruption charges the opposition says have been trumped up.

Zia’s son, Tarique Rahman, is the acting chairman of the party, but he is in exile, facing charges that he denies.

The economy has also slowed sharply since the Russia-Ukraine war pushed up prices of fuel and food imports, forcing Bangladesh to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a bailout of $4.7 billion last year.

Pierre Prakash of the International Crisis Group said Hasina’s government was clearly “less popular than it was a few years ago, yet Bangladeshis have little real outlet at the ballot box”.

“That is a potentially dangerous combination.”

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