Why We Believe the Myth of High Crime Rates

Americans are convinced that they are living in a world ravaged by crime. In major cities, we fear riding public transportation or going out after dark. We buy weapons for self-defense and skip our nightly jogs. Next to the weather, the explosion of crime is a favorite topic of conversation. The overwhelming consensus is that crime is only getting worse. According to a Gallup poll, in late 2022, 78 percent of Americans contended that there was more crime than there used to be.

These perceptions would make sense if they were accurate, but they aren’t. Crime, in fact, is down in the U.S., rivaling low levels that haven’t been seen since the 1960s. According to FBI data, violent crime rates dropped by 8 percent and property crime dropped by about 6 percent by the third quarter of last year, compared with the same period in 2022. Still, the reality of these optimistic statistics doesn’t quell people’s fears.

New York City is a prime example. Crime was down by 6 percent in July 2023 from a year earlier. Specifically, murder was down by 11 percent, rape was down by 11 percent, and robbery was down by 6 percent. Yet at the time that these statistics were released in 2023, a poll of New Yorkers’ feelings around crime painted a grim picture of a city riddled with violence. The poll found that 61 percent of New Yorkers were worried about being the target of crime and that 36 percent fretted about the safety of public places. It is true that crime increased during the pandemic, and revising the way we view public safety after such a spike in crime statistics has ended happens at a slow pace. The pandemic is a case in point. The figures on major crime perceptions have remained inflated for years.

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The reasons for such misperceptions are manifold. Crime tends to concentrate in certain places, mostly within poorer neighborhoods in cities such as Baltimore, New Orleans, Detroit, Birmingham, Ala., and Memphis, Tenn. This means that most of us will never experience it. Only 2 percent of people are ever affected by violent crime, and 15 percent are affected by any type of misconduct. Perceptions matter because in most cases, they are the sole basis for the fears that fuel the idea that crime is rampant. That can affect people in different ways. The older you are, for example, the more likely you are to fear crime even though you’re half as likely to ever experience it, compared with other age groups.

Even more surprisingly, if you live in a part of the country with little crime, you’re probably more frightened of it than people who actually live in the relatively few neighborhoods where it is commonplace, such as the Belmont neighborhood in Detroit or Hopkins–Middle East in Baltimore, where violent crimes are respectively 150 and 300 times more likely to happen, compared with other neighborhoods. A study published in the April 2018 issue of the journal Humanities and Social Sciences Communications found that “significant levels of fear are often reported by people who enjoy low levels of victimization.” Study co-author Steven Bishop, a social science expert at University College London, says that if you experience crime or the threat of it more often, you’re more likely to have adjusted your fears in line with reality. In neighborhoods with more crime, people harness their expectations and avoid the areas where criminals congregate. But when you’re never exposed to crime, you’re a poor judge of the risk of encountering it.

Oftentimes, our perceptions of crime are built around an imaginary “elsewhere” in which, in the most extreme scenario, civil order has collapsed, says Wesley G. Skogan, a professor of crime policy and the politics of crime at Northwestern University. When we’re asked about our own neighborhood, for example, we’re more likely to be moderately realistic about crime levels, compared with when we’re asked about other parts of the country. “Within your neighborhood, you’re talking about your own experiences and the experiences of those whom you know,” Skogan says. In other words, your own insights into levels of public safety are the most accurate.

There are many reasons for these attitudes. Partisanship plays a growing role in fueling these perspectives. Our perspectives on crime are shaped by the politics of the moment — and have been for some time. During both George H.W. Bush’s and Bill Clinton’s presidencies, opposing parties held similar views on crime. But around 2000, perspectives began to depend on who was in power. According to the 2022 Gallup Poll, with President Joe Biden in the White House, 73 percent of Republicans said crime in their area was growing while only 42 percent of Democrats agreed. “Crime has become a big partisan split with the biggest gap in history happening during the Biden administration,” says Skogan. What’s more, Republicans are also more likely to be somewhat older, which could be a factor contributing to their fear of crime. (The average Republican is 50 years old, while the average Democrat is 47.)

Watershed events such as September 11 also contribute to how we think about crime. According to John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety & Justice at NORC at the University of Chicago, the 9/11 attacks marked a period under the George W. Bush administration when our views about crime began to fall out of line with reality. Roman contends that, as a nation, we didn’t foresee the largest terrorist attack in our country’s history, and that makes us worry that even when crime statistics show a reduction, an unforeseen event may still strike without warning. “Ever since 9/11 we’ve been bombarded with warnings and messages that didn’t exist before,” Roman says. Every time you’re in an airport or train station, there are warning signs that say things like “if you see something, say something”—reminders that lead to hypervigilance.

After 9/11 the federal government took on a partial role as public safety overseer, instituting a color-coded warning system to alert us to pending terrorist attacks. But that warning system is gone—and according to Roman, people have been left to make their own judgments about what it means to be safe, which can translate into the feeling of having to be on guard all the time. Similar issues arise when changes are made in policing. More and more cities have the police patrol with their lights flashing; while the goal is to raise police visibility, that tactic can result in the opposite of its intended effect.

Additionally, features that create a sense of disorder within a given neighborhood—for example, graffiti, broken-down buildings and trash—are often wrongly associated with an increased risk of crime. According to a September 2023 study published in the journal Landscape and Urban Planning, “public space regeneration significantly improves safety perceptions for both genders.” Seeing drug use in public places, graffiti and people sleeping on public transportation all send psychological warning signs to the average person who’s just trying to get home from work. Still, it’s largely inaccurate messaging, in Roman’s view. “Disorder and danger really aren’t as highly correlated as people think,” he says.

Media reports contribute to these flawed perceptions. Crimes that happen halfway across the globe have no real impact on our personal experience of safety on the street but can still weigh heavily on our psyche, Bishop says. This is also true for social media. “Overall, media and social media influenced perceptions of how frequently crime occurs,” reported a September 2017 study published in the American International Journal of Social Science.

Pablo Navarrete Hernandez of the University of Sheffield in England, lead author of the 2023 Landscape and Urban Planning study, says that misplaced fears have been shown to have a major impact on perceptions about the neighborhoods in which we live and how public resources are allocated to them. Spending on police for neighborhoods with relatively low crime rates can divert expenditures from needier areas.

Misperceptions also affect those who end up alone and indoors because of fears of nonexistent crime. Parents may be afraid to take their kids to the park or on walks around the neighborhood. Fears of taking the metro or the bus may keep us at home. And older people may forgo their favorite hobbies and social contacts, contributing to the national epidemic of loneliness and the health risks that come with it. In the end, fear begins to hold us hostage much more than the risk of crime ever could.

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