2024 Kentucky Derby expert picks, post positions, odds, time: Insider fades Fierceness at Churchill Downs

American Pharoh became the first horse to win the Triple Crown in 37 years when he completed the feat in 2015. Three years later, Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner, leading horse racing fans to wonder if we were about to witness another run of Triple Crown champions every few years. No other horse has captured the Triple Crown since 2018, but that could all change in the 2024 Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Fierceness is the 5-2 favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, with Sierra Leone at 3-1. Conventionally wisdom would tell you one of these 2024 Kentucky Derby horses would have the best chances at delivering the 14th Triple Crown, but should you feel strong enough to include either of them in 2024 Kentucky Derby bets at their current 2024 Kentucky Derby odds?

Post time for the first leg of the Triple Crown is set for 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby offering arguably the best betting opportunity of any single sporting event of the year, you’ll want to see what Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks.

A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team since 2017, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014 and an $18,000 Pick 5 at Tampa Bay Downs in early April.

In April of last year, he hit a Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641, the exacta in the Florida Derby, a Pick 5 at Keeneland and the exacta in the Lexington Stakes. He smashed the trifecta in the Belmont Stakes for $532.96, and later in June he crushed a Pick 4 at Belmont for $555. Those were just some of his scores from 2023.

For Saturday, he has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Weir is fading Fierceness, even though he is the top favorite. Fierceness emerged as the 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite after taking the Florida Derby by 13 1/2 lengths, the widest margin of victory ever. Twenty-five horses have won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Florida Derby over the last 71 years, winning at a 35% clip.

However, recent results don’t match the 35% win rate. Always Dreaming is the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby after the Florida Derby, doing so in 2017. The last six Kentucky Derby races have been won by a horse other than the Florida Derby winner, with the last three winners coming off a loss altogether in their previous race. Fierceness has won three of five career races to become the favorite but at 5-2 odds, Weir suggests you’ll find better value elsewhere in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field.

Another curveball: Weir is high on the chances of Japanese invader Forever Young, even though he’s a 10-1 longshot. Forever Young is trained by Yoshito Yahagi, who trained two horses (Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine) to victories at the 2021 Breeders’ Cup. Yahagi became the first Japanese trainer to win any race at the Breeders’ Cup. He’s trained some of Japan’s best horses, including the 2020 Japanese Triple Crown winner.

No Japanese horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby, but Yahagi has already accomplished a first in American horse racing. Forever Young has won all five of his career races, one of only two horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field able to make that claim, and he’s one of five horses with odds of 10-1 or shorter to win the Run for the Roses. Japanese horses have garnered more respect in recent years, making it seemingly only a matter of time until one breaks through for a victory in the Kentucky Derby. You can see all of Weir’s 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.

How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Weir is high on a big double-digit longshot who “could be ready for his best.” Weir is including this surprising horse in his 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He’s sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So who wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and what double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the horse racing insider who has had multiple five-figure days at the track and just hit an $18,000 payday, and find out.