Best Round 1 prop picks for 2023 Open Championship: Top DFS golf over/unders for Thursday

The 2023 Open Championship, also known as the Open or the British Open, tees off Thursday at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in the northwest England town of Hoylake. We have run the gauntlet of betting coverage leading up to the 151st installment of this famed major, from our betting guide to our sleepers and props to our DraftKings DFS lineup. Today, we will assemble a SuperDraft player prop parlay to make even more cash.

Golf betting has become increasingly popular, and player prop parlays like the ones featured on SuperDraft are a big reason why. By stringing together two or more over/unders each round, you can win money without needing to pick an outright tournament winner or top finisher from the entire weekend of links golf. 

Of course, some of the favorites, such as Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, will be tough to ignore while we make our plays. Royal Liverpool was the site of McIlroy’s 2014 Open Championship victory, and Scheffler remains the world No. 1 thanks to his impeccable play from tee to green.

However, we’ll shy away from both of the world’s top golfers, as their Round 1 over/under projections are a little too lofty for our liking. For instance, Scheffler’s Round 1 score projection is 68.5 strokes, and both McIlroy and Scheffler have over/unders of 4.5 birdies and two bogeys.

MORE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Odds, course breakdown, forecast, expert picks

So, who merits consideration in the over/under betting market? We’ll highlight the best over/under bets for Round 1 strokes, birdies, and bogeys entering the 2023 Open Championship. Let’s enjoy this major from start to finish and make some major cash along the way!

Not quite sure how SuperDraft works? Here’s the scoop: users can hand-select two or more player prop over/unders to bet, and the payout increases with every additional prop wager added. A bet on just two over/unders yields a potential payout of 3X the stake. Three correct picks would pay out at 6X. Four picks: 10X. Five: 20X. Six: 35X. Seven: 65X. Eight: 100X. The maximum you can bet on an eight-leg parlay prop is $5.

Get it? Got it? Good! Let’s make some winning picks for Round 1 of the Open Championship!

MORE: Join SuperDraft now and enjoy a deposit match up to $100! Enter promo code “TSN” for a free $10 when you register

Best SuperDraft Golfer Prop Picks for Open Championship Round 1

Xander Schauffele OVER 2.5 bogeys or worse

Schauffele ranks among our best bets to win the Open Championship. He just always seems to be in the mix in big tournaments in majors, and he’s perfectly suited to dominate Royal Liverpool GC. He comes into this weekend on a hot streak, although he hasn’t exactly gotten off to the hottest start in Round 1s as of late. 

Schauffele has carded four or more Round 1 bogeys in three of his past four tournaments and at least three Round 1 bogeys in four of his past five. In total, he would have cashed OVER 2.5 bogeys or worse in a whopping nine tournaments this PGA Tour season.

This is a great example of why you shouldn’t blindly trust a big name to explode out of the gates. Some players, especially in majors and tough conditions, start slowly and warm up as the weekend progresses. We think Schauffele will be one of them. 

MORE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Sleepers & props | DFS lineup

Collin Morikawa UNDER 70 strokes

Here’s a guy who we expect to come out blazing, and a player we think we’re getting good market value on in the over/under strokes department. Morikawa has established himself as a PGA force to be reckoned with, and his play in majors since becoming a pro just a few short years ago has been jaw-dropping. Back issues hampered him midway through this season, and as a result, oddsmakers have played it safe with his lines.

From what we can see, Morikawa is back and no longer dealing with back spasms. His last time out was at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he opened with a Round 1 66 (-6) and finished T2 with an impressive -24. He hit 21 birdies that weekend, maintained 300-plus yards per drive, and posted an incredible 79.2 greens-in-regulation percentage.

Morikawa has all the skills needed to dominate this large, hilly course, and the L.A. native should have no trouble with the occasional seaside gusts. He’s a great bet to emerge as a contender this weekend and is one of our favorites to go UNDER his projected Round 1 score. 

Tony Finau OVER 3.5 birdies or better

Finau has racked up an unfathomable 87 Round 1 birdies in 19 tournaments this season, good for an average of 4.6 per tourney. Sure, he’s had a ton of Round 1 bogeys, too, but what’s important is that he always seems to go for it all. The bogeys, in a way, help our cause with the OVER here. The more squares on his scorecard, the more he’ll want to make up for things with some circles. 

Like Morikawa, Finau is a strong ball-striker with an efficient approach game. The big Utah native drove the ball off the tee for an average of 318 yards at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a number that will be huge if he can replicate it at the plush and sometimes-wet course at Royal Liverpool. We love Finau to finish Round 1 with four or five birdies to get us the checkmark. 

Bryson DeChambeau OVER 2.5 bogeys

DeChambeau is another one of the guys we expect to have some blemishes on his Round 1 scorecard. The LIV defector had three-plus bogeys or worse in two of the three majors this year, including the Masters. That’s important, as Augusta plays a little bit like Royal Liverpool with its long par-4s, deep bunkers, and hilly fairways. Hoylake, which sits on the Wirral Peninsula off the northwest coast of England, has much more wind than eastern Georgia will ever have.

We have DeChambeau making some noise over the weekend — in fact, we drafted him to our DFS lineup — but we don’t think it’s going to be all sunshine and roses right off the bat. We would much rather bet DeChambeau to card OVER 2.5 bogeys than OVER four birdies. Remember, OVER four birdies means he needs to birdie five, not four or more. 

Keegan Bradley UNDER 71 strokes

We saved the best for last. Bradley serves as one of our favorite sleepers this weekend, as his strong ball-striking skills, clutch play at majors, and efficient approach/around-the-green skills should serve him well at Hoylake.

Bradley is fantastic on the approach from 150-250 yards, he excels at par-save scrambling, and he has one of the most underrated flat-sticks on TOUR. This is a tremendous value pick, as we have him projected for an opening-round 69. Make Bradley’s UNDER the cherry on top of your player prop sundae. 

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