In a span of 30 total NFL games played, the 49ers’ Brock Purdy has transformed from “Mr. Irrelevant” to one of the most successful big-game quarterbacks in the league. The 24-year-old has never lost a postseason game he has played from start to finish, and many sports bettors believe his success will continue against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 on Sunday evening.
However, bettors can’t just blindly bet the OVER on every prop listed for the QB they think will win. It’s crucial in sports betting to assess value before pulling the trigger on props, especially on Super Bowl Sunday when we often see the most inflated lines and bloated odds.
That’s why we analyze player projections with our minds, not our hearts, and review matchups rather than names and past performances. Casuals who blindly follow the crowd in Big Game betting almost always see suboptimal results, while the savvy bettors do the research, make informed wagering decisions, and enjoy the biggest boosts to their bankrolls.
Let us do the research for you! All season long, we have scoured the BetMGM and SuperDraft player prop markets for value, helping countless bettors hit it big with winning wagers. Our best bets column went 164-130-2 during the regular season, and we’ve been scorching through the playoffs with game picks, player prop bets, and DFS entries.
Let’s dive into the best Brock Purdy props for Super Bowl 58 between the 49ers and Chiefs, ranking them in order of value and letting you know which way we lean on each one.
Brock Purdy touchdown and passing yards props for Super Bowl 58
Brock Purdy passing touchdowns — UNDER 1.5 (+105 on BetMGM)
We like Purdy, but we’re not about to throw money away and bet his OVER on a two-TD prop. He barely got by a Packers defense that had allowed 364.5 yards per game over its previous 10 contests, and he needed a miracle Brandon Aiyuk catch off a helmet-doink to beat the Lions and their abysmal secondary. In both games, he maxed out at one passing TD.
In fact, Purdy hasn’t registered two passing TDs in a postseason game since his playoff debut in the 2022 Wild Card round against an inept Seahawks defense. Newsflash: Kansas City’s defense is far from inept, and there’s no pressure like a neutral-field duel with Patrick Mahomes on the biggest stage in sports.
The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked third in scoring defense and total yards allowed, and their AFC Championship victory over league MVP Lamar Jackson and the top-seeded Ravens was MasterClass-worthy.
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People love storylines, especially on Super Sunday. Many would love to see the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft lead his Niners to glory over the defending champs, winning Super Bowl MVP (he’s +230 to win the award, behind only reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes). But this marks the best defense San Francisco has faced since its Week 16 loss to Baltimore.
Purdy had four picks in that game, a 33-19 beatdown on the Niners’ home field in Santa Clara. On a neutral field, with Chris Jones terrorizing the pocket and L’Jarius Sneed shadowing Aiyuk, we would be very surprised if Purdy suddenly erupted for multiple passing TDs. Follow logic and reason and bet the UNDER with plus odds.
Brock Purdy passing yards — OVER 249.5 (SuperDraft)
Now, this one we can get behind. Purdy doesn’t have to be, well, pretty, to get to 250 passing yards. Tons of Super Bowl QBs have lost the Big Game with well over that many yards, especially over the past 10 years with the rules increasingly favoring the pass and offenses chucking the ball like never before.
Purdy has cleared 250-plus passing yards in three of the four postseason games he has finished (he got hurt in the 2022 NFC title game vs. Philadelphia after four passing attempts). He also threw for 250 or more in 10 of his final 14 regular-season contests of the 2023 campaign, including a 255-yard effort against the Ravens in that aforementioned blowout.
If Purdy could hit 255 against Baltimore despite tossing four picks and getting thrashed 33-19, we have to believe he can reach 250 against the Chiefs. Lamar Jackson just tallied 255 against Kansas City two weeks ago, and the Ravens only managed 10 points in that game!
We get it — the Chiefs only allowed four QBs to pass for 250-plus all regular season — but this is the top seed in the NFC we’re talking about here. Don’t expect Mr. Relevant to go down without a fight.
Brock Purdy pass attempts: OVER 30.5 (SuperDraft)
This one’s easy, as well. As this game projects to be pretty close — with an implied final score of about 25-23 49ers — we like Purdy to attempt a bunch of passes. This projection has actually gone down since it opened at 31.5, a number we were already betting the OVER on last week.
Purdy accumulated 70 passes through San Francisco’s first two playoff games this year, and he attempted 32 when the Niners faced their toughest regular-season competition against the Ravens in Week 16. Smash the OVER.
Brock Purdy interceptions: OVER 0.5 (-135 on BetMGM)
We like this one the least of the bunch, as Purdy has been a pretty efficient game manager on paper and we don’t love the value we’re getting with -135 odds. However, if we had to pick this prop either way, we would bet the OVER.
The Brock Star has gotten away with some really dangerous passes and poor decisions over the past month, stuff like throwing across his body on the run or launching prayers into double-coverage (or off cornerbacks’ helmets).
Elite defenses like Baltimore and Kansas City don’t let opposing QBs get away with such mental mistakes and big-game gaffes. We wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Purdy tosses at least one ball into the hands of L’Jarius Sneed, Justin Reid, or Willie Gay.
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