The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns in Week 11 having won four of five with a chance to move even more securely into an AFC playoff position against backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
The announcement of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending shoulder injury and impending surgery have caused a drastic narrowing of betting odds on this tilt, as the Browns were favored by up to 4.5 points before the injury news was announced. Another ripple leading up to this game is that Cleveland has announced rookie Thompson-Robinson as the starter at QB rather than the more experienced (and XFL legend) PJ Walker.
The Browns and Steelers are both 6-3, with the Steelers holding the slightest of edges in the playoff picture due to their divisional record. Games within the AFC North (especially in the second half of the season) are typically close, and this game will be no exception.
Betting odds for Browns vs. Steelers: Point spread, moneyline, total for NFL Week 11 matchup
Here are the latest NFL betting odds for Browns vs. Steelers at the best U.S. sportsbooks:
Browns betting news
Cleveland’s ATS record is 6-3-1 thus far, but of course stats accrued before Watson went on the shelf have limited relevance in relation to how the team is likely to perform with a rookie quarterback at the helm the rest of the way. Much like the Browns betting forecast was altered after Nick Chubb’s season-ending injury in Week 2, similar effects will be felt going forward — especially in the prop betting markets — including:
Jerome Ford’s role as the bell cow running back has been firmly established, and his usage is likely to increase even further in an attempt to keep the game slowed down for Thompson-Robinson. Ford’s impressive 4.3 YPC might drop down a bit over the rest of the season, but he and Kareem Hunt will both likely have their hands on the ball early and often going forward.Tight end David Njoku finally found paydirt in Week 8 vs. Seattle and followed that breakthrough with another score in Week 9 vs. the Cardinals. While he didn’t score last week in Baltimore, he was targeted nine times and caught six passes for 58 yards, a statline that will likely be equaled if not surpassed at home this Sunday.DPOY odds favorite (+140) Myles Garrett continues to dominate the line of scrimmage, and that trend doesn’t seem likely to subside any time soon. Look for his sack and pressure totals to continue to rise steadily, as they have all season long.
Futures: 2024 Super Bowl odds | Hamlin to win Comeback Player of the Year? | Odds to make NFL Playoffs
Steelers betting news
The Steelers 6-3 record is also their ATS record, which is just as quirky as their success thus far in 2023. Winners of their last two (very similar) games vs. the Titans and Packers, Pittsburgh looks to run their streak to three while throwing the kitchen sink at Cleveland now that Watson is out of the picture. At first glance, the team’s performance this year seemed like an early aberration, but going into the second half of the season with their record it’s tough to deny that they’re legitimate contenders for a postseason berth.
Kenny Pickett’s career trajectory has quickly veered from high-ceiling to that of a souped up Mitch Trubisky, but somehow some way PIttsburgh has won twice as many games as they’ve lost without getting a full solid game out of him to this point. We don’t have the time or space here to figure out how the Steelers are in contention with Pickett having thrown 6 TDs and 4 INTs through the first 10 weeks of the season, but it does seem like the offense will need to get rolling down the stretch for them to make the postseason because the trend of being outgained each week but winning seems unsustainable, to say the least.In the “same as it ever was” column, the Steelers defense has been led by a punishing LB duo of TJ Watt (10.5 sacks) and Alex Highsmith (4.5 sacks). These two, and the rest of Pittsburgh’s front seven, stand to see significant increases to these totals as defensive coordinator Teryl Austin dials up an even higher than usual level of blitz pressure vs. the Browns.
Browns vs. Steelers props
Lots of things can go wrong with a rookie QB, and defensive TDs are often the result. It’s worth considering a bet on the Steelers to score one vs. the Browns this week.
Both QBs offer passing props that pique our interest this week:
Dorian Thompson-Robinson UNDER : The rookie QB seems unlikely to eclipse even this paltry passing total, given that the Browns are going to keep the swimmies on their offensive game plan and run the ball a ton.Their passing production totals might be anemic this week.Kenny Pickett OVER : Pickett might get a few more deep ball play calls this week than usual, and he can probably go north of his modest passing prop even though this game won’t exactly be a Greatest Show on Turf variety of offensive exposition.
Steelers vs. Browns Week 11 prediction
It’s hard to bet on a rookie QB who has looked overmatched (0 TDs, 3 INTs). This game won’t see any records set on the offensive side, and Pittsburgh is better suited to grind this out and win by winning the field position battle consistently. This game could end up in the Steelers 27-13 range, demonstrating why the Browns shouldn’t have parted ways with QB Josh Dobbs.
Pick: Steelers
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Author(s)
Isaac Thorn is a writer from Cincinnati, Ohio, with a passion for sports analysis, history and gaming. He has mostly remained sane despite decades of rooting for the Reds, Bengals, New York Rangers and Cincinnati Bearcats.
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