The Final Four in the women’s March Madness tournament has no shortage of storylines. The best of the best, however, is the superstar matchup between Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers in the Iowa vs. UConn clash on Friday night (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+/Sling/Fubo). For fans and bettors alike, the battle between former USA Basketball teammates will be an NCAA duel for the ages.
What more can we say about Clark? She has the range, quick release, and deadly accuracy of Steph Curry and she has shattered records like the NCAA version of LeBron James.
Clark averaged 32 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds in the regular season and just dropped 41/12/7 in Iowa’s revenge-game win over reigning-champion LSU in the Elite Eight. We have never seen dominance quite like Clark’s historic run over the past year and a half.
Any other year, Bueckers would be the talk of the NCAA universe. She’s scored nearly 28 points per game since UConn’s run through the Big East tournament, and her offensive heroics have helped lead Geno Auriemma to perhaps the most unlikely of his 23 Final Four appearances. Injuries, setbacks, and tough matchups be damned — the Huskies are in every game as long as they have Bueckers.
Let’s dive into the stat projections and BetMGM player props for Clark and Bueckers, assessing the betting value for each over/under and providing you with the best bets entering the tournament semifinals.
Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers Final Four stat projections: Points
Here are the latest odds and points player props for Clark and Buckers per BetMGM.
Player
Over
Under
Caitlin Clark
33.5 (-115)
33.5 (-115)
Paige Bueckers
26.5 (-125)
26.5 (-105)
Caitlin Clark’s points total (O/U 33.5)
To nobody’s surprise, oddsmakers went high with their Clark projection. The women’s NCAA GOAT averaged 32 points during the regular season, and she has dropped 33-plus in four of Iowa’s past nine games and 13 of its past 28.
The Huskies have also demonstrated a vulnerability to outside shooting this tournament, allowing nine treys vs. Syracuse and a whopping 13 to USC. The vast majority of player prop bettors will be putting their money on Clark’s OVER.
We won’t be, though. We expect Geno Auriemma to do everything he can to get the ball out of Clark’s hands and keep her from her spots outside the arc. He knows full well that the three-ball has hurt the Huskies, and he watched Clark drain three treys against LSU just like the rest of us.
Clark has eclipsed 33 points just once this tournament, and she bested this projection in 14 of her 37 total games (37%). A strong transition and high-screen defense, UConn should be able to keep her from scoring 34 once again on Friday. Let’s shy from the crowd and make some money off the path less traveled.
BEST BET: UNDER 33.5 points (-115)
Paige Bueckers’ points total (O/U 26.5)
Bueckers, meanwhile, has a very inviting OVER — probably because she has piqued far less interest than Clark from the betting public. The UConn star has surpassed 26 points in eight of her past 10 games, and she’s coming off a 28-point, 11-for-23 performance against USC in the Elite Eight.
Bueckers only averaged 22 points per game in the regular season, but she has scored nearly 28 PPG in the postseason. Her squad turns to her early and often in close games, and she has stepped up nicely as the Huskies’ go-to scorer.
Between her high usage and her solid efficiency (53.4/41.8/83.4 this season) — not to mention the fact that Iowa has surrendered 71.5 points per game on the season, and just gave up 87 points to LSU — we have Bueckers finishing with closer to 30 than 25.
BEST BET: OVER 26.5 points (-125)
MORE: Clark, Bueckers highlight Sporting News’ All-American teams
Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers Final Four stat projections: Assists
Player
Over
Under
Caitlin Clark
10.5 (-110)
10.5 (-110)
Caitlin Clark
9.5 (-125)
9.5 (-105)
Paige Bueckers
4.5 (-125)
4.5 (-105)
Caitlin Clark’s assist total (O/U 10.5, 9.5)
First off, it’s always interesting when sportsbooks give you two different over/under options for a player. That’s when you know the player has generated a ton of betting interest, and also when you know they have been lighting it up.
We have absolutely no reservations with betting the OVER on the higher projection here, as Clark has exceeded 10 assists in five of Iowa’s past nine games. In just the past two games vs. Colorado and LSU, she has tallied a whopping 27 dimes (15 vs. Colorado, 12 vs. LSU).
We have already established that we expect her to remain UNDER 33.5 points, and our final score prediction for this contest is 85-72. Thus, we know she will be dropping dimes and creating for others. She scored or assisted on 36 of Iowa’s 49 points in the 2nd half against LSU, and we wouldn’t be surprised if she’s responsible for an even larger percentage of Iowa’s points vs. UConn.
BEST BET: OVER 10.5 assists (-110), but we don’t blame you if you would rather bet the more modest OVER 9.5 (-125)
Paige Bueckers’ assist total (O/U 4.5)
This one’s too close for us to call, as Bueckers’ assist numbers have been far too volatile for our liking. She has logged six-plus dimes in three of UConn’s past four games, but she also has assist totals of one, three, and four in the Huskies’ other three postseason contests since the start of the Big East tourney. We’re not touching this one either way, as we would rather put more units on a higher-value player prop.
BEST BET: Stay away
MORE: Clark drawing record handle at Vegas sportsbooks
Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers Final Four stat projections: Rebounds
Player
Over
Under
Caitlin Clark
6.5 (-125)
6.5 (-105)
Paige Bueckers
6.5 (-115)
6.5 (-115)
Caitlin Clark’s rebounding total (O/U 6.5)
We’re locking in the OVER here, as Clark will do anything and everything to help Iowa get back to the National Championship. She has grabbed seven-plus boards in four of Iowa’s past five games and eight of the past 11, and the UConn women rank just 83rd in the nation in total rebounds per game.
BEST BET: OVER 6.5 rebounds (-125)
Paige Bueckers’ rebound total (O/U 6.5)
This OVER is our favorite player prop of the game, as Bueckers has been low-key phenomenal on the boards all postseason. She has grabbed double-digit rebounds in four of UConn’s six games between the Big East tourney and the March Madness tournament, including a 10-rebound effort in the Elite Eight against a USC squad that has plenty of height. Pound the OVER here.
BEST BET: OVER 6.5 rebounds (-115)
WOMEN’S MARCH MADNESS TICKETS: Final Four | Championship
Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers Final Four stat projections: Three-pointers
Player
Over
Under
Caitlin Clark
5.5 (-125)
5.5 (-105)
Paige Bueckers
2.5 (+115)
2.5 (-150)
Caitlin Clark three-pointers (O/U 5.5)
Just like her points projection, this number feels way too high. Can you tell that the average bettor loves betting the OVER? Sure, Clark hit nine triples against LSU in the Elite Eight — but that was the first time all tournament that she eclipses five threes.
In fact, she hadn’t sunk six treys in any of Iowa’s previous six postseason contests. Don’t follow the masses who will be smash-betting the OVER with their heart — use your head and bet the UNDER.
BEST BET: UNDER 5.5 three-pointers (-125)
MORE: Steph vs. Sabrina 2.0…with a twist?
Paige Bueckers three-pointers (O/U 2.5)
Any time you’re getting plus odds on an OVER and heavily-juiced odds on the UNDER, the obvious temptation amongst betting novices is to go for the plus odds while the logical choice for seasoned bettors is to either go for the more likely, juiced-up option or just fade it entirely.
We’re fading this one, because Bueckers’ total three-pointers over UConn’s past four games has looked way too topsy-turvy: 3-2-1-2. Too much risk in the OVER, too little value in the UNDER.
BEST BET: Fade
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