College football betting picks: NCAAF week 9 rundown and odds

The Week 8 slate is now in the books and it was a relatively uneventful week of college football. Penn State was unable to produce the statement win over Ohio State as the Buckeyes walked away with a 20-12 victory as Drew Allar was unable to get the offense moving.

According to ESPN’s analytics, this Big Ten victory moves Ohio State’s chances of making the college football playoffs up to 74%. Alabama produced an impressive 34-20 victory over Tennessee and Oregon defeated Washington State 38-24. The most notable upset was Virginia taking down North Carolina 31-27 while Caleb Williams and USC saw all of their playoff hopes disappear by losing to Utah 34-32. The Top 6 of the College Football rankings (1-Georgia, 2-Michigan, 3-Ohio State, 4-Florida State, 5-Washington, and 6-Oklahoma) remain intact from last week. Penn State dropped from 7th to 10th following the loss to Ohio State with Texas and Oregon each moving up one spot in the table and Alabama hopping from 11 to 9 to move above the Nittany Lions as well.

There are still plenty of intriguing matchups on the board and plenty of value in the betting markets available to take advantage of. Here is a look at some of the most appealing matchups and what to make of the Week 9 college football schedule.

🏅 Win odds overview for this week’s matchups

NCAAF weekly predictions

After several weeks in which it was unclear who the best teams of college football are, the separation of the top programs is becoming clear. The Week 9 slate may not have the measuring stick-type matchups that future weeks bring on, but still some enticing games to keep an eye on.

Most notably, 8th-ranked Oregon will take on 13th-ranked Utah with both teams riding high off significant Week 8 wins. 1st-ranked Georgia will travel down to Florida with there being an argument that this will be their toughest test thus far this year. 10th-ranked Penn State will look to get back on track against an unranked Indiana team but will need to make quite the statement from here on out to get a chance at the playoffs.

Overall there will be two ranked matchups on the week. In addition to Oregon vs Utah, 20th-ranked Duke will travel to take on 18th-ranked Louisville although quarterback Riley Leonard’s status is still in doubt. The Heisman trophy race has taken a massive shift as, after climbing to a -130 favorite on DraftKings last week, Washington QB Michel Penix Jr. has dropped to the second-best odds at +320. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy has climbed to the frontrunner at +240 after a statement 49-0 victory over cross-state rival Michigan State.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels (+340) also remains in the hunt while Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel (+1100) and Florida State QB Jordan Travis (+1100) are tied for the 4th best odds. Michigan also holds sole possession as the National Championship favorites at +225 odds with Georgia (+275), Florida State (+700), Ohio State (+700), and Washington (+1200) rounding out the top five.

These odds are certain to change over the next few weeks as the most crucial stretch of football is still to be played, but 5th-ranked Washington’s frustrating 15-7 victory over Arizona State has shifted things in a major way.

Week 9 picks for the NCCAF

Week 9 college football betting picks

With plenty on the line this week, here is a look at the best value on the betting slate and a breakdown of each matchup.

✔️ Penn State vs. Indiana: Penn State -32 outcome at -110 odds (DraftKings)

Date and Time: Saturday, October 28th, 12:00 PM EST
Location: Jones University Park, Pennsylvania
TV/Stream: CBS

James Franklin proved once again unable to pick up the notable ranked win which would put the program in the driver’s seat for the college football playoff. Luckily for them, the door is not fully shut on a postseason appearance. They also face a great opportunity to get themselves right against an inferior opponent. There are sure to be some frustrations aired out at Penn State practice this week and expect this to be carried over to the field on Saturday. While the 32-point spread is intimidating, this is a perfect opportunity for Penn State to make a statement and in the long run, a loss to Ohio State is not one that will stain their resume in a way that cannot be overcome.

Indiana enters this matchup with a 2-5 record overall and is 0-4 in Big Ten play. They average just 17.9 points per game which ranks 124th out of 133 qualifying Division One football teams. Defensively they have also struggled allowing 29.3 points per game which also ranks in the bottom 40 of D1 programs. Indiana is coming off a 31-14 loss to Rutgers in which the Scarlet Knights passed for a grand total of 39 yards. Instead, they deployed a run-heavy attack which led to 276 rushing yards on 55 attempts and ultimately resulted in a convincing victory.

Against a bigger and more intimidating offensive line, don’t expect the results to be much different this week against Penn State. Expect the Nittany Lions to embrace their running game and for Indiana to have no answer. Despite the loss last week, Penn State still proved to be the high-level defense they have looked to be all season, and expect Indiana to have major difficulties moving the ball to any capacity. Count on this one to be a blowout victory in favor of Penn State and for them to cruise past the 32-point spread. It is tough to find any reason for optimism for how Indiana will put points on the board and this is a perfect opportunity for Penn State to lay in on thick. You can wager on this at -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

🏈 Bet on a Penn State -32 outcome at -110 with DraftKings 🏈

✔️ Georgia vs. Florida: Georgia -14.5 outcome at -110 odds (BetMGM)

Date and time: Saturday, October 28th, 3:30 PM EST
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
TV/Stream: CBS

Georgia has been the consensus number-one team from start to finish this season and is looking to secure their third National Championship in as many years. However, they have yet to be tested on the season. To this point, their 27-20 victory over Auburn is the only game that has ended within a single-digit deficit. On the season Georgia has tallied 281 total points, averaging 40.1 points per game, while allowing just 98 total points, which comes down to 14.0 points per game. Their scoring average ranks 8th in the country and the points allowed rank 7th amongst Division 1 teams.

Florida enters this game with a 5-2 record and 3-1 in conference play. They hover just outside of the Top 25 and most recently defeated South Carolina 41-39. The Gators have also defeated Tennessee, McNeese State, Charlotte, and Vanderbilt on the season while their losses to Kentucky and Utah are both pretty respectable. Florida averages 29.1 points per game while allowing 20.0 points per game on the defensive end. Most of their offensive damage is done through their running back duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. These two backs have combined for 845 yards and seven touchdowns so far this season.

Georgia has won 24 consecutive games across the past three seasons one of which includes a 42-20 victory over Florida in which they were 23-point favorites last year. The Gators are just 3-4 against the spread this season and have lost five of their last six matchups against the Bulldogs. While Georgia has only covered the spread once this season, it came against their lone ranked matchup of the year. Georgia is the better team on both sides of the ball and will prove that in this matchup.

The 14.5-point spread is still notable, but expect Georgia to break this game open and clear this number. There will be some extra juice in this rivalry matchup and count on it to bring out the best in the Bulldogs. While their larger goals are still on the horizon, feel confident in them to take care of business and produce the three-score victory over Florida. You can wager on this at -110 odds with BetMGM.

🏈 Bet on a Georgia -14.5 outcome at -110 with BetMGM 🏈

✔️ West Virginia vs. UCF: Over 58 outcome at -110 odds (BetRivers)

Date and time: Saturday, October 28th, 12:00 PM EST
Location: Orlando, Florida
TV/Stream: FS1

This will be the first matchup between West Virginia and UCF in nearly 20 years, but this will be the first time in program histories as conference opponents. While UCF enters as seven-point favorites in the matchup, the scoring total has more intriguing value. Neither of these teams has lived up to their early goals as WVU enters with a record of 4-3 on the season, 2-2 in conference play, and have lost their last two games. UCF are 3-4 on the season, 0-4 in conference play, and have lost four consecutive games coming into this matchup.

West Virginia is averaging an impressive 29.3 points per game and primarily leans on their rushing attack which has proven effective thus far. On the season they are averaging 191.4 rushing yards and 2.4 rushing touchdowns per game with a few rotating running backs making an impact.

Defensively, they have not had as impressive of results as the Mountaineers are allowing 26.3 points per game. The UCF Knights enter with a similar identity as they are producing an impressive 34.1 points per game on the season which is 34th in the country. They have an even more impressive rushing attack and have averaged 232.4 yards per game as well as 2.1 rushing touchdowns per game due to a pair of running backs, Timmy Mcclain and John Rhys Plumlee, who have each eclipsed 800 yards on the season already. However, they have even more significant defensive concerns and have allowed 28.3 points per game on the season.

Both teams rely heavily on the running game and struggle to stop it themselves. Both WVU and UCF rank in the bottom 40 in predicted points added per rush and rush success rate on the defensive side of the ball. Overs are also 3-0 in UCF home games and 4-1 in matchups in which UCF is the favorite this season. Stay away from a side in this matchup and expect this to be a high-scoring shootout.

The total of 59 is too low as each of these defenses struggle to get stops in the red zone and touchdowns could pile up in a hurry. You can capitalize on this by wagering on the over of 58 points at -110 odds on BetRivers.

🏈 Bet on an over 58 outcome at -110 odds with BetRivers 🏈

College football betting weekly highlights

Utah’s QB Cam Rising is shut down for the remainder of the season
Rising has been questionable each week but elected to shut things down
He will consider returning for his 7th season of college football next year
QB Quinn Ewers (Texas) is Doubtful this week with an AC Joint Sprain
Arch Manning could make college football debut
QB Cade McNamara (Iowa) out for the season with a torn ACL
QB Riley Leonard’s (Duke) status uncertain with ankle sprain
Returned from a high ankle sprain last week but had to leave the game after re-aggravating the ankle
QB Jalon Daniels (Kansas) is questionable with a back injury vs Oklahoma
Missed the last three games for Kansas
QB Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina) is out vs Marshall
Suffered a scary hit last week in which he had to be carted off the field and stayed overnight at a local hospital
Home teams are 358-183 this year straight up (66.2%)
Away teams are 183-358 this year straight up (33.8%)
Home teams are 248-278-13 against the spread this season (47.1%)
Away teams are 278-248-13 against the spread this season (52.9%)
Favorites are 261-265-13 against the spread this season (49.6%)
Underdogs are 265-261-13 against the spread this season (50.4%)
Home favorites are 153-156-9 against the spread this season (49.5%)
Away favorites are 83-70-4 against the spread this season (54.2%)
Home underdogs are 70-83-4 against the spread this season (45.8%)

🏈 Best college football betting sites

BetMGM (Available in: AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, MA, MI, MS, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, PR, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY)
DraftKings (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, and WV)
BetRivers (Available in: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY)
Unibet (Available in: AZ, IN, IA, NJ, PA, and VA)
Desert Diamond (Available in: AZ)
Betway (Available in: IA)

Big football fan? Check out the best NFL betting sites for the season!

About the author

Sean Barnard

Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.

Commercial content notice: Taking one of the bookmaker offers featured in this article may result in a payment to talkSPORT. 21+. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler

Responsible gambling

Remember to gamble responsibly
A responsible gambler is someone who:

Establishes time and monetary limits before playing
Only gambles with money they can afford to lose
Never chase their losses
Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry, or depressed
National Council on Problem Gambling – https://www.ncpgambling.org/
Gamble Aware – www.begambleaware.org

For help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline on 1-800-522-4700 or go to ncpgambling.org/chat

>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : TalkSport – https://talksport.com/betting/us/1616532/ncaaf-week-9-preview-picks-2023/