Cowboys vs. Commanders odds, props, predictions: Dallas looks to cover biggest point spread of NFL Week 18

The Dallas Cowboys (11-5) are a heavy road favorite, with the NFC East title up for grabs late Sunday afternoon, when they face the Washington Commanders (4-12) in Week 18 of the 2023 NFL regular season.

A Cowboys victory or a loss by Philadelphia (11-5) on Sunday gives Dallas the crown, which would mark the 19th straight season a defending East champion — in this case, Philly — didn’t repeat as the division winner.

Dallas was listed as a 13.5-point favorite for this game when early odds were posted Sunday evening. The current Cowboys vs. Commanders odds have Dallas as favorites, with Washington getting on the moneyline, and the OVER/UNDER point total at .

Dallas has a 9-7 mark against the spread but has gone 0-3 ATS in its past three outings. Its crucial 20-19 home win over Detroit last Saturday is included as a 4.5-point choice. Washington is 6-9-1 ATS.

On the O/U chart, Washington games have gone OVER nine times; Dallas has had eight such games. Overall, this season, bettors on the UNDER have collected 55.5 percent of the time.

Cowboys vs. Commanders odds: Point spread, moneyline, total for NFL Week 18 contest

Here’s the latest NFL betting odds for Cowboys vs. Commanders:

This game is a rematch of their Thanksgiving meeting in the “Jerry Dome” when the Cowboys trampled the Commanders 45-10 as a 13-point choice with QB Dak Prescott throwing for 331 yards and four TDs.

That’s quite a contrast to when these teams met in the 2022 season finale when the Commanders, as 7-point underdogs, were 26-6 winners over the Cowboys. Rookie Washington QB Sam Howell made his first start in that rout.

In that game, which Dallas needed to win to have any hope of overtaking Philadelphia for the division crown, Prescott was 14-for-37 passing for 128 yards and an interception.

Of course, Washington had the league’s third-ranked defense last season. This year’s unit is 32nd.

NFL betting action: NFL Week 18 ATS picks | NFL Week 18 Sharp Money Report

Cowboys vs. Commanders injury news

Here is the current injury report for the Cowboys vs. Commanders.

Dallas has close to a clean injury report on offense, with the exception of left guard Tyler Smith. Smith injured his foot last Saturday against Detroit.

For Washington, the cornerbacks who started last week, both backups, are ailing for a pass defense that’s allowed a league-high 35 touchdown passes and has only seven interceptions, tied for second fewest.

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Cowboys betting news

Dallas got two big gifts last week that put them back in control to secure the No. 2 NFC seed.

First came the highly controversial 20-19 win over Detroit last Saturday, when a 2-point conversion in the final minute by Detroit was called back. The lineman who caught the pass from QB Jared Goff supposedly didn’t report he was an eligible receiver. Many analysts on TV/radio have lambasted the referee for that ruling.

Then came Philadelphia’s 35-31 home loss to Arizona a day later, when the Eagles squandered a 15-point halftime lead.

With regard to being such a heavy pick on the road, the Cowboys certainly know they can’t sleep-walk past a Commanders team on a seven-game losing streak.

This game marks the seventh week a club playing in enemy territory has been a double-digit choice. The only loss across the league came when Dallas fell at Arizona in Week 3, 28-16, as an 11.5-point pick.

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Commanders betting news

Coach Ron Rivera announced midweek that Howell will make his 17th straight start this season. He was recently benched in favor of Jacoby Brissett, but Brissett now has a hamstring issue.

Howell, the most-sacked QB in the league (61), could find himself on the run against the Cowboys, especially when pass-rush specialist Micah Parsons takes aim. He has 13 sacks this season.

Speaking of “on the run,” the Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry, led by Brian Robinson. That’s the seventh-best rate in the league. Playing from behind too often has limited their carries to only 21.4 per game.

Cowboys vs. Commanders props

Let’s look at some prop bets for the Cowboys vs. Commanders at top-rated sportsbook apps nationwide.

Cowboys vs. Commanders receiving props (FanDuel)

CeeDee Lamb O/U 93.5 receiving yards Terry McLaurin O/U 57.5 receiving yards Brandin Cooks O/U 39.5 receiving yards Jake Ferguson O/U 37.5 receiving yards

Winning Margin of Victory (BetMGM)

Cowboys by 1-6 Points: +425Commanders by 1-6: +775Cowboys by 7-12: +350Commanders by 7-12: +1750Cowboys by 13-18: +340Commanders by 13-18: +4000Cowboys by 19-24: +500Commanders by 19-24: +8000Cowboys by 37-42: +2000Commanders by 37-42: +10000

Cowboys vs. Commanders anytime TD scorer (FanDuel)

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: -175Cowboys RB Tony Pollard: -170Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson: +160Commanders RB Brian Robinson: +190Commanders WR Terry McLaurin +220Cowboys WR Michael Gallup: +220Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks: +220Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: +230Commanders QB Sam Howell: +900

Cowboys vs. Commanders Predictions

Washington has one of the worst defenses against the pass, but its rush defense hasn’t been much to text home about the past three weeks, giving up an average of 181.3 yards a game.

Thus, Dallas should thrive in the attack of its choice.

As for Howell, although he “outdueled” Prescott in last year’s season finale, there’s unlikely to be a repeat. Prescott is the league’s second-rated passer, and Howell has a league-high 19 interceptions, three more than anyone else.

One word of caution: The Cowboys could be vulnerable to a backdoor cover if coach Mike McCarthy opts to rest starters with a 20-point lead late in the game. The Commanders, meanwhile, probably will hustle to the final whistle in what’s likely the final game for their popular coach.

Prediction: Cowboys and OVER