Despite his reputation as a highlight-reel receiver, Deebo Samuel seems to be flying under the radar a bit ahead of the 49ers’ Super Bowl 58 clash with the reigning-champion Chiefs.
The Big Game narratives have been dominated by Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, two-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, and Brock Purdy going from Mr. Irrelevant to Mr. Relevant.
However, savvy bettors know all about Deebo’s game-changing ability. And anyone betting the 49ers to win it all should consider the possibility that the former All-Pro will play a very big role in the victory.
We must assess every over/under projection and line for value, though. Casual bettors love betting the OVER on Super Bowl Sunday, which gives sportsbooks the ability to inflate the numbers to their advantage.
Allow us to do the research for you, and steer you toward the best bets. All season long, we have scoured the BetMGM and SuperDraft player prop markets, helping countless bettors win big. Our best bets column went 164-130-2 during the regular season, and we’ve been high-stepping through the playoffs with winning game picks, player prop bets, and DFS entries.
Let’s take a look at the best Deebo Samuel bets and fantasy prop picks ahead of Super Bowl 58 between the 49ers and Chiefs, ranking them in order of value and letting you know which way we lean on each one.
Deebo Samuel touchdown and receiving yards props for Super Bowl 58
Deebo Samuel touchdown — Anytime (+140 on BetMGM)
This feels like great value, especially when you consider that stud Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed will more than likely be covering Brandon Aiyuk most of the night. Deebo serves as the Niners’ Swiss Army knife — playing out of the backfield, in the slot, and out wide — and he’s more than capable of taking it to the house every time he touches the ball.
Speedy wideouts have hurt Kansas City at times this season. Most recently, we saw Dolphins All-Pro Tyreek Hill, Bills speedster Khalil Shakir, and stud Ravens rookie Zay Flowers each score touchdowns against the Chiefs this postseason. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been spectacular against the pass since Week 1, but its blemishes have been largely due to wideouts generating big YAC plays (yards after the catch).
Kyle Shanahan should utilize Deebo’s game-breaking speed early and often in this one. If Brock Purdy faces a ton of pressure from Chris Jones and the Chiefs’ underrated pass-rush, don’t be surprised to see the Niners wideout used in the screen game. If San Francisco struggles to get the downfield pass going like so many Kansas City opponents this season, look for some end-arounds and maybe even some trick plays.
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Deebo has yet to find the end zone this postseason, but the Niners’ come-from-behind victory over the Lions in the NFC Championship Game had his fingerprints all over it. All said, the fifth-year receiver hauled in 8-of-9 targets for 89 yards and added seven yards on the ground. He commanded a nearly 30-percent target share and had explosive plays of 26 yards, 17 yards, and 15 yards during the comeback.
Aiyuk had a massive catch in that title game as well, a 51-yarder that Purdy launched right into Lions cornerback Kindle Vildor’s arms, bounced off Vildor’s helmet, and wound up right in the diving Aiyuk’s hands. Just like they drew it up, right? Not exactly, but it turned out to be the signature play of the 49ers’ triumphant win. Take away that fortunate play that fell in San Fran’s favor, and Aiyuk would have finished with just two catches on eight targets for 17 yards.
Deebo Samuel receiving yards — OVER 59.5 (SuperDraft)
Can you tell we’re all-in on Deebo this Super Bowl Sunday? He’s being projected at exactly the yardage he averaged during the regular season, so we just love the big-play receiver in this matchup.
Look at some of Deebo’s receiving-yard averages in primetime games:
77.5 in four late tilts this season
71.4 in 21 night games throughout his career
72.8 across the four postseason contests Brock Purdy has started and finished
Like we already mentioned, speedy all-purpose wideouts have gashed Kansas City for chunk yardage throughout the season and into the playoffs. Zay Flowers turned five catches into 115 yards and a TD against the Chiefs in the AFC title game two weeks ago, and Tyreek Hill went OVER this number against KC in the first round.
Wideouts also cleared 60-plus receiving yards against Andy Reid’s squad 13 different times during the regular-season. L’Jarius Sneed should be able to neutralize Brandon Aiyuk, but Kansas City will have its hands full with Deebo from the Niners’ first possession on. Smash the OVER with confidence here.
Deebo Samuel rushing yards: UNDER 16.5 (SuperDraft)
This one feels like an easy UNDER. As much as we love Deebo’s dual-purpose ability, we also recognize that this number is a bit high. People love betting the OVER, and this seems like a prime example of the sportsbooks capitalizing on that.
Deebo has only gone OVER this total five times in 17 games since Week 1, and we don’t expect the Chiefs’ high-powered front-seven to suddenly open up running lanes for the speedy wideout.
Chargers rookie Derius Davis was the only wide receiver to exceed 16.5 rushing yards against Kansas City all season, and that was in Week 18 when the majority of the Chiefs’ first unit was resting. Deebo will do some damage this Super Sunday, but we don’t expect much of it to come from out of the backfield.
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