Defying the odds: The 10 biggest MMA betting upsets of 2023

December 27, 2023 4:45 pm ET

Who doesn’t love a good upset?

In 2023, MMA saw its fair share of underdogs who defied the odds in the UFC, Bellator, PFL, and beyond. While everyone has an opinion of who should win and who should lose, the oddsmakers (and how the betting public responds) largely get the final say on what history reflects.

This year, with the help of MMA database Tapology, MMA Junkie has compiled the top 10 betting upsets of 2023. Fights that were eligible were those that multiple major online sportsbooks recognized, and that Tapology recorded before the close of the betting line.

Promotions eligible include UFC, Bellator, PFL, KSW, DWCS, Road to UFC, and ONE Championship.

Check out the top 10 MMA betting upsets of 2023 below. Only major MMA promotions were included in the tally.

Brendson Ribeiro (+380) def. Bruno Lopes (-600) | DWCS 61

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 05: (L-R) Brendson Ribeiro of Brazil punches Bruno Lopes of Brazil in a light heavyweight fight during Dana White’s Contender Series season seven, week five at UFC APEX on September 05, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Result: Brendson Ribeiro def. Bruno Lopes via TKO (punches) – Round 1, 3:47

Brendson Ribeiro punched his ticket to the UFC in style and ruined plenty of parlays in the process. Going up against the reigning LFA light heavyweight champion Bruno Lopes, and a fighter believed to be a UFC shoo-in, Ribeiro quickly gave the story an alternate ending. He pummeled Lopes en route to a Round 1 stoppage.

Jeka Saragih (+390) def. Lucas Alexander (-530) | UFC Fight Night 232

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 18: (R-L) Jeka Saragih of Indonesia battles Lucas Alexander of Brazil in a featherweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on November 18, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Result: Jeka Saragih def. Lucas Alexander via knockout (punches) – Round 1, 1:31

It took Jeka Saragih a total of 91 seconds to defy the odds Nov. 18 at the UFC Apex when he brutally knocked out Lucas Alexander. The victory was Saragih’s first in the promotion.

Cody Brundage (+450) def. Jacob Malkoun (-600) | UFC Fight Night 228

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 23: (R-L) Cody Brundage battles Jacob Malkoun of Australia in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 23, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Result: Cody Brundage def. Jacob Malkoun via disqualification (illegal strike to back of head) – Round 1, 4:15

The solo disqualification win that registered on this list begins to Cody Brundage, who was hit in the back of the head with an elbow during a Sept. 23 bout vs. Jacob Malkoun. Referee Mark Smith called timeout as a result of the foul and it was later determined Brundage was unable to continue.

Nicolas Dalby (+455) def. Gabriel Bonfim (-650) | UFC Fight Night 231

Nov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Nicolas Dalby (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Gabriel Bonfim (red gloves) during the UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-USA TODAY Sports

Result: Nicolas Dalby def. Gabriel Bonfim via TKO (strikes) – Round 2, 4:33

One of the most emphatic rallies was a big upset, too. In a Nov. 4 co-main event spot in Sao Paulo, Nicolas Dalby turned things around and poured on an onslaught of attack against Gabriel Bonfim. The barrage of strikes materialized in a TKO late in Round 2.

Sean Strickland (+470) def. Israel Adesanya (-650) | UFC 293

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – SEPTEMBER 10: Sean Strickland of United States trades punches with Israel Adesanya of Nigeria (L), during the UFC 293 event at Qudos Bank Arena on September 10, 2023 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

Result: Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Perhaps one of the most high-profile upsets in UFC history, Sean Strickland, the unlikely next title challenger, flew across the world and put on a clinic against reigning middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. In enemy territory, Strickland won four rounds on all three judges’ scorecards – and was cheered upon the decision announcement.

Elves Brener (+470) def. Zubaira Tukhugov (-625) | UFC 284

Feb 12, 2023; Perth, WA, AUSTRALIA; Zubaira Tukhugov (red gloves) fights Elves Brener (blue gloves) during UFC 284 at RAC Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports

Result: Elves Brener def. Zubaira Tukhugov via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Though controversial, Elves Brener notched an upset decision victory over former Khabib Nurmagomedov training partner Zubaira Tukhugov. The bout was his promotional debut and one he took on short notice.

Jeff Creighton (+850) def. Joey Davis (-1600) | Bellator 293

Jeff Creighton

Result: Jeff Creighton def. Joey Davis via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

A massive betting upset flew somewhat under the radar at Bellator 293 in March, when relative unknown Jeff Creighton established himself in MMA history when he defeated massive favorite Joey Davis. The fight played out mostly along the fence as Division II NCAA wrestling champion Davis shot for takedown after takedown. What he lacked in positional control, Creighton seemed to make up for in damage, at least in the eyes of the judges. It was close, but Creighton got the nod – and one of the biggest oddsmaker upsets ever.

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