Remember when offense skyrocketed last year and we all thought that was going to be the new normal brought on by the pitch clock, the shift ban and the bigger bases?
Not so much, as it turns out. Scoring is down from 4.6 to 4.3 runs per game, and the league-wide batting average is a mere .240. The only time it’s ever gone lower was in 1968, when the mound was higher and Bob Gibsons and Denny McLains roamed the earth.
There are real causes for concern at play. Home runs are notably down from 1.2 to 1.0 per game. And while it’s still low, the 21.1 caught-stealing percentage noted earlier is up from 19.8 percent in 2023.
Still, let’s let a little more time pass before we let our concern turn into panic.
Strikeouts are down, at least, and this is the first season of the 10-year Statcast era in which hitters deserve a better batting average than the one they actually have. They’re hitting .240, but they should be hitting .248.
Warm weather could be all that’s needed. It was the case when the league hit .232 in April of 2021 and 2022, years that ended with averages of .244 and .243. And it’s really always the case, as offense has long tended to peak in June, July and August.
It should be just a matter of time, in other words, before the hits keep coming.
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