Will Dak Prescott and the Cowboys get things together on offense in Week 6? (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) (Thearon W. Henderson via Getty Images)
It’s hard enough having to set your fantasy football lineups every week, but sometimes, the games themselves tell us who to play. The game of Week 6 is looking like the Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers, a battle between two potent offenses (at least, on paper) with the highest projected total of the slate. Fantasy analysts Scott Pianowski and Jorge Martin play a little game of “Would You Rather,” choosing which vaunted offense will produce the most fantasy points on Monday Night Football.
The case for the Cowboys
You want an NFL game that sparks all the memes, the Cowboys and Chargers are here for you. Spiderman, meet Spiderman. These two franchises might be the most consistent underachievers of the 2000s.
The Chargers haven’t won their division since 2009, and they have three piddly playoff appearances in the last 13 years. If you trace Cowboys history back to 1998, you find a franchise that’s 4-11 in the playoffs and hasn’t won a Divisional Playoff game since 1995. Generally, these teams look great on paper, but you give them a buck and they hand back 73 cents. Prepare to be disappointed.
In fairness, Dallas is 3-2 and Los Angeles is 2-2. No one is buried in the standings. But you get the idea that full-blown panic could set in if either franchise plays poorly on Monday. And you know the rules of football: both teams can’t win.
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I’m picking the Cowboys as -2 favorites on the road, by the way. Of course, no NFL team plays a true road game with the Chargers — the crowd figures to be dominated by Dallas fans. Seventy percent? Eighty percent? More? I wish I could close my eyes, snap my fingers, and have the Chargers back where they belong, in San Diego.
Is the Chargers defense weak enough to fix the struggling Cowboys offense? LAC has allowed the most collective running back fantasy points (though the per-play average is around the median), and it’s the eighth-friendliest to opposing QBs (handing out a bloated 8.4 YPA).
Isn’t it about time CeeDee Lamb had a signature game? His five finishes thus far (grading off half-point PPR) are a little underwhelming: WR32, WR10, WR43, WR19, WR44. This is not the dominator I signed up for. He’s also seen more than seven targets just once. Let your best players be your best players.
I’ve been ranking Dak Prescott optimistically most of the year, but it’s time for a show-me game. He’s yet to chart over QB17. To be fair, four of five games have been blowouts. But he hasn’t gone off in any of the blowout wins, and he’s a big reason why the Cowboys were throttled in San Francisco next week.
Bottom line, I’m holding the line on Pollard and Lamb, still treating them as top 12-15 players at worst. I’ve been stumping for Jake Ferguson all year, not that it’s come in yet. I need Prescott in some Superflex and deeper leagues. I’m even considering Brandin Cooks a viable sleeper.
But if they don’t impose their will on the Chargers, I’m ready to throw this optimism in the trash. Summer camp has come and gone. September sloppiness can be tolerated, and the odd embarrassing loss is reasonable, too. But if the Pokes let us down again, that’s three stinkers out of four. Maybe the cheese really is bad. — Pianowski
The case for the Chargers
The Spiderman meme is perfect. Boy, have these two franchises ever underachieved, but at least Cowboys fans have the 70s, 80s and 90s to cling to. Chargers fans, all 12 of them, have what? Air Coryell teams that created the modern passing game, yet fell short in January. The years with LT and the other Big Papi, Philip Rivers; again, short. It’s fitting they blew a 27-0 lead in the playoffs last January. The Chargers franchise needs a reset, pronto.
Maybe it’s because I live somewhat near to SoFi Stadium — by LA traffic standards that means two hours or less on the freeway — I’m partial to the Chargers in this matchup. It starts with No. 10, Justin Herbert, who most weeks can beat NFL defenses one-handed. That’s good, because he’s nursing a broken middle finger on his left (non-throwing) hand that he suffered in Week 4. Luckily his right hand will be fine, and he’s used it for a 9.0 ADOT that is fifth in the league, just what fantasy managers wanted to see with the changeover to offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (Revenge game for a coach?).
Herbert is the engine for this offense, which is coming off the bye to both give the quarterback more time to heal and for the unit to form more cohesion. He’s due a blowup game at home in front of all those Cowboys fans, as both of his 300-yard games have been on the road. With the Cowboys fresh off Brock Purdy laying waste to their vaunted defense for 252 yards and four touchdowns just up the West Coast, maybe proximity to the Pacific Ocean is Kryptonite for the Dallas defense.
Keenan Allen will resume the wonderful campaign he’s having, as he was second in the NFL with 35 receptions through the first four games. Herbert will be looking for him early and often, as Michael Wilson’s 86 receiving yards (on two catches) in Arizona’s 28-16 victory over Dallas will surely show some cracks in the Cowboys’ armor. Hmmm, Arizona neighbors California, so perhaps there’s something about going west that doesn’t agree with the Cowboys.
What will definitely agree with the Chargers is the 99% chance that Austin Ekeler is returning to the starting lineup. Yes, we saw Jonathan Taylor get eased back in by the Colts with just six carries last week. The Chargers don’t have Zack Moss, and they’re still reeling from losing Mike Williams for the season. In Weeks 9-13 last year during which Williams appeared in one game and caught one ball for 15 yards, Ekeler had 449 scrimmage yards on 88 touches — including 33 receptions — and three touchdowns. As Ekeler told our amigo Matt Harmon earlier this week on Ekeler’s Edge, he can’t wait to get back on the field and make some music. How we miss those air guitar celebrations.
Surely the Chargers coaching staff and tight end Gerald Everett saw how open George Kittle was against this defense last week, on the way to catching three touchdown passes. Yes, Jake Ferguson is going to reward fantasy managers this year, but this is a good spot to get Everett on the cheap into DFS lineups. It would also be a great time for talented rookie Quentin Johnston to take a big step forward.
Luckily for both of us, and the Monday Night Football audience, the Chargers’ defense has allowed a league-worst 329.3 passing yards per game. Dak Prescott may even get close to that mark — he’s yet to hit 300 yards passing in a game this year.
This game is going to shoot out, so the Chargers’ first-down trumpet will be blaring all evening. Both these teams are going to score a ton. I can’t wait, so I’m going to get in my car now to take off for the game. I should be there in time for the tailgate with the Chargers fans. Plenty of room for more if you want to join us. I’ll save you some carne asada and a cold cerveza or two. — Martin
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