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Iga Swiatek will be a heavy favorite to win her third straight and fourth overall French Open title on Saturday.
The top-ranked women’s singles player in the world faces 12th-seeded Italian Jasmine Paolini in the championship match at Roland Garros.
Paolini experienced her first breakthrough at a Grand Slam tournament over the last two weeks, but finishing off that run with a title will be incredibly difficult against Swiatek.
Swiatek holds the edge in the matchup because of her clay-court expertise. She also owns a 2-0 head-to-head record over Paolini.
French Open Women’s Final Info
Swiatek has not lost at Roland Garros in three years.
The top-ranked player in the world conquered the clay in 2020, 2022 and 2023. Her only loss in that span came in the 2021 quarterfinals to Maria Sakkari.
Swiatek won the French Open final in straight sets in 2020 and 2022. She was taken to three sets by Karolina Muchova last June.
The four-time major winner won at least one set by a 6-1 or 6-2 margin in each of her three French Open finals.
She also happens to be perfect in Grand Slam finals. She is 4-0 with three triumphs in Paris and a win from the 2022 U.S. Open.
Swiatek has been as dominant as usual this year in Paris. She dropped a single set in the second round to Naomi Osaka.
She eliminated a pair of top-five seeds, Marketa Vondrousova and Coco Gauff, by a combined score of 24-8 in the last two rounds.
Paolini has an uphill climb not just to win the match, but to take a few games in each set off Swiatek.
The 12th-seeded Italian won six games in four career sets against Swiatek. They met in Prague in 2018 and at the 2022 U.S. Open.
Paolini had not been past the fourth round at any Grand Slam singles event prior to the French Open. Her previous best finish came at the 2024 Australian Open.
Paolini knocked out No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina and teenage phenom Mirra Andreeva in the last two rounds to get into the final.
The three-set quarterfinal win over Rybakina is the best comparison to the type of match she will see against Swiatek.
That victory combined with her overall form could give Paolini some confidence going into Saturday, but even if she plays a perfect match, she might not compare to Swiatek’s peak level.
Anything other than a straight-set win from Swiatek would be viewed as a surprise result.
Prediction: Iga Swiatek def. Jasmine Paolini, 6-2, 6-2
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