Our Senior Form Analyst Jamie Lynch reveals his five runners to keep onside at Bath and Hereford this Friday including a Dubawi filly representing William Haggas
Call Time (2.15- Bath)
Stan Moore has sent out more winners at Bath than any other turf track, and I’ve a feeling that CALL TIME will express himself more here than he’s had the chance to so far, having contested three strong 2-y-o novices on the bigger courses last year, before finding himself in a stacked 0-75 at Windsor for his needy reappearance, when he was actually travelling as well as anything 2f out, despite his 40-1 SP. Down in grade and trip, in an easier race than before, he could easily spring to life more, certainly a lively longshot.
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Liosa (4.00- Bath)
He’s basically a winner without a penalty because even the most contrarian commentators would struggle to say LIOSA wasn’t the best horse by far on his comeback at Wolverhampton, where he was strong as favourite but got no luck/room and finished with a full tank. On a macro level, he picked up where he left off last year (won at Wolverhampton), clearly in the fast lane of improvement now for the excellent Stuart Kittow and likely to stay there for a while, being a low-mileage 4-y-o. There are, however, certain red flags which stop short of going all in on him, as the comeback highlighted the perils of a horse who needs to be held up and, headstrong by nature, he needs little invitation to lock on, and this race is cold on projected pace. But, all things being equal, he ought to take care of this lot.
Jax Edge (4.30- Bath)
Though yet to have a winner in 2024, Christopher Mason is towards the top of the league on the run-to-form ratio (5 of last 8 runners have made the podium), signifying that the floodgates are about to open, and maybe JAX EDGE is the one to break through. Her form figures at Bath read 412, and the ‘1’ was second-time-out last May, the same formula as today, following a reappearance at Windsor which didn’t get near the bottom of her (met some traffic). She’s 2 lb lower in the handicap than the ‘2’ at Bath when clear with Moulin Booj, a strong piece of form, emphasising her liking for the track, and, all in all, she looks to be sitting on a peak performance.
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William Haggas is represented by Bittalemon at Bath
Bittalemon (5.00- Bath)
A dose of improvement is going to win the fillies’ novice and the question isn’t who but how much, because at least four of these are in the departure lounge, and their flight plans aren’t yet set, but it’s fair to surmise that BITTALEMON may hit the highest altitude given her pedigree and platform. That platform was at Newbury, in a race that hasn’t worked out, though it wasn’t who she faced but how she shaped that marked her out from the crowd, pushing through greenness to record the second-fastest split between 4f-2f out, before that took its toll. Smarter and sharper for Newbury, she’s the one to take the biggest leap in form here.
Riskintheground (7.30- Hereford)
In his first spell over fences, between October and December, all in handicaps, we never saw the best of RISKINTHEGROUND, firstly as he was brought down through no fault of his own and subsequently because he was campaigned around 3m, which was plainly too far for him, trading much shorter than his SP on each occasion but never seeing it out. Back from a break, with the stable flying along (13 wins in May at a 22% strike-rate), Riskintheground should show his truer colours now reverted to what promises to be his optimum trip of 2½m.
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