Let’s get the pessimistic side of this analysis out of the way first.
Siakam turns 30 in April. He’s a career 32.7 percent three-point shooter. His overall scoring efficiency has been well below average over the four-and-a-half seasons since Kawhi Leonard left the Raptors. Also, he’s unrestricted free agent this summer.
With that context in mind, three first-rounders, even if the one in 2026 is top-four-protected, feels like a lot.
But even if there’s no guarantee he’ll re-sign with Indiana, Siakam is reportedly “expected to be eager to work out a new contract with the franchise.”
And he’s undoubtedly a short-term upgrade over Brown.
Siakam is four inches taller, has made two All-NBA teams and has averaged at least 21 points and four assists in each of his past four seasons. He’ll put pressure on opposing defenses in a way Indiana simply hasn’t been able to from the frontcourt this season.
Additionally, he’s never played with a creator like Tyrese Haliburton before (most haven’t). Instead of having to isolate and spam the spin button—as he often did in Toronto—Siakam will get multiple stress-free finishing opportunities set up by Haliburton in Indiana.
That alone could juice his sometimes underwhelming efficiency marks, but he’ll also be able to play in plenty of lineups with four shooters, thanks in large part to the range of center Myles Turner.
With the floor spaced the way Indiana can space it (the Pacers are sixth in both threes per 100 possessions and three-point percentage, despite Brown’s struggles from deep this season), Siakam should have wider and more luxurious driving lanes than he typically experienced in Toronto.
The upgrade in size should help on the defensive end, too.
Siakam has an above-average defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices) this season, but just having a 6’8″ forward with a 7’3″ wingspan alongside Turner in the starting five could lead to a greater impact than that. Those two will be able to cover a lot of ground and disrupt passing lanes on defense.
Of course, given the strength at the top of the Eastern Conference, this deal certainly doesn’t guarantee Indiana will win a playoff series. A quick postseason flameout coming right before Siakam bolts in free agency would make this trade look like a disaster.
But those hypotheticals are way off in the distance.
Indiana has one of the three or four best point guards in the NBA right now. Haliburton is an offensive engine unto himself, and he’s made the Pacers competitive earlier than most could’ve expected.
Justifying a win-now move, even if it carries some risk with it, isn’t hard.
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