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This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
I’ll be honest. A few weeks ago, when I began preparing this Around the Horn series, I looked at the San Diego outfield and figured it would look awfully different by the time I began writing.
Yet here we are. It’s late January, and the Padres haven’t made a meaningful addition to their outfield this winter. That would’ve been fine, of course, if they hadn’t subtracted in a major way last month — sending Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees.
That trade brought San Diego some of the pitching it was desperately seeking. It also left the Padres with just two outfielders on their 40-man roster and a sense that further moves were necessary. With four weeks until the Padres play their first Cactus League game, those moves have yet to materialize.
Here’s a look at where things stand:
On the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azocar
Departures: Soto, Grisham, Jurickson Profar
Top-30 prospects: Samuel Zavala (No. 5), Dillon Head (No. 9), Jakob Marsee (No. 13), Homer Bush Jr. (No. 14)
Bare minimum? The Padres still need two starters in their outfield.
Maybe you’re optimistic about a prospect like Marsee, the MVP of the Arizona Fall League. Maybe you think San Diego can fill a bench spot with a prospect like Jackson Merrill, Graham Pauley or Nathan Martorella (all of whom play elsewhere primarily but have taken reps in the outfield corners). Maybe you’re convinced Azocar is a serviceable fourth option, capable of playing all three spots and earning a few starts against lefties.
That still leaves the Padres searching for two outfielders. Considering the current state of their roster, at least one of those outfielders should be a left-handed hitter, and at least one should play center field.
Where do the Padres find those outfielders?
On the free-agent market right now, there’s Cody Bellinger, then a sizeable gap, then the next tier of available outfielders. The Padres aren’t in on Bellinger, which means they’ll be choosing from that lower tier.
Lefty-hitting outfielders worth at least 1 WAR last season include Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Travis Jankowski, David Peralta and Aaron Hicks (a switch-hitter). You can find the full list of available free agents here.
From that group, maybe the Padres land someone like Eddie Rosario. Perhaps they look to reunite with Jurickson Profar. It’s all on the table.
Still, given the general lack of impact free agents, it feels likelier than not that the Padres add an outfielder via trade before the season.
Tatis is the constant in the San Diego outfield, coming off a Platinum Glove Award-winning season. He was spectacular defensively in his first year as a right fielder. The Padres could probably expect similar results if he were to move to center field.
That said, the Padres have a good thing going with Tatis in right — and they know it. Petco Park’s spacious right field is a challenge in its own right, and moving Tatis to center would still necessitate adding a center-field type who could play that corner.
So while it’s possible the Padres use Tatis as a center fielder — or even a hybrid playing both spots — that doesn’t sound like the current preference. Don’t rule it out though.
“He could play anywhere,” general manager A.J. Preller said when asked about Tatis’ position following the Soto deal. “Maybe not catcher. … The center field thing, you never want to say no. Fernando’s got great talent, athleticism, instinct. He obviously picked up right field quickly.”
What’s the plan for the Padres’ prospects?
Given the current state of the roster, it sure looks like they’ll have every opportunity to compete for a roster spot in big league camp. That includes Marsee in center field. It includes Pauley, Merrill and Martorella as players who have gotten reps in the outfield corners (but whose primary position is elsewhere).
There’s almost certainly going to be opportunity for at least one player from that group to win an Opening Day roster spot. That said, the Padres do not want to enter March counting on that outcome.
If someone from that group is going to earn a big league job, the Padres want him to actually earn it. Which is why it’s imperative that they add at least two more outfielders (and probably a couple options on their non-roster-invitee list).
There are question marks elsewhere on the roster. The rotation is thin and volatile. The bench/DH situation is far too reliant on unproven young players.
But there’s not a single spot that must be addressed more urgently than the outfield. The Padres still must add at least two players. If they’re prudent, probably three.
Here’s guessing that before Opening Day, the Padres trade for an outfielder and sign two other low-cost options. From there, they can let their prospects compete for a bench spot or two — without being forced into pushing that group too fast.
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