Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke and head coach Doug PedersonJames Gilbert/Getty Images
The Jacksonville Jaguars escaped Thursday night’s game against the New Orleans Saints with a 31-24 victory that shouldn’t have been as close as it was.
Jacksonville was up 17-6 at halftime, and New Orleans struggled to get much of anything going offensively before a fourth-quarter surge made things very interesting. The Saints drew even before a Christian Kirk touchdown gave the lead back to Jacksonville.
The Saints had a chance to score again, but Derek Carr’s fourth-down pass fell incomplete.
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Saints don’t convert on 4th down
Jaguars win 31-24
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The Jags moved to 5-2 with the win, and they may be on the verge of pulling away in the AFC South. However, Jacksonville should want more than a division title this season. It should want a trip to the Super Bowl, and with the conference seemingly wide open, it should be aggressive about getting there.
The “big three” in the AFC—the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs—appear vulnerable. There are other good teams in the AFC—the Miami Dolphins are particularly intriguing with their historic offense, and the Baltimore Ravens will be a factor. However, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Kansas City were the ones standing with Jacksonville in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs.
Not one of the aforementioned three appears as dangerous as it did a year ago.
Buffalo has had some recent offensive struggles and is dealing with several key defensive injuries. Tre’Davious White, DaQuan Jones and Matt Milano are all on injured reserve.
If the Bills can’t rely on an explosive offense and injuries render their defense merely average, they’ll be in trouble.
Joe Burrow’s calf injury put Cincinnati in an early hole, and even with Burrow getting healthier, the offense remains out of sync. The Bengals rank 32nd in total offense and 27th in scoring.
Cincinnati’s offensive problems go deeper than Burrow’s injury. The play-calling has been suspect, and the ground game has been lacking.
The Chiefs’ problems are less obvious right now but could become more so in the postseason. While Kansas City’s defense is better than it was a year ago, the offense is worse.
Jawaan Taylor has been a borderline disaster at right tackle—he’s been responsible for 11 penalties, according to Pro Football Focus—there is no No. 1 wide receiver, and the play-calling has been unnecessarily gimmicky following the offseason departure of coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
After ranking first in passing offense, first in yards and first in scoring last year, the Chiefs currently rank second in passing, fourth in total yards and only ninth in points.
Kansas City’s offense will always be functional with Patrick Mahomes under center, but the Chiefs’ receiving corps leaves plenty to be desired after Travis Kelce. Kansas City recently traded for former Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman to help address the issue.
Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke needs to follow suit and make a few moves before the October 31 trade deadline. With just a couple more pieces, Jacksonville can be a team that catches the conference’s best.
To be clear, Jacksonville has a talented roster. Trevor Lawrence continues to flirt with the “elite” moniker, Travis Etienne Jr. is a special running back, and the Jags have a strong collection of pass-catchers. The offensive line, which did not surrender a sack on Thursday, is serviceable, and there are playmakers on defense.
Doug Pederson is a proven head coach and the right one for this team.
There’s a tremendous foundation on which Jacksonville can build. However, the Jaguars don’t have a complete roster. They’ve been great against the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry coming into Thursday, but they have struggled against the pass.
Before Thursday, Jacksonville ranked 24th in net yards per attempt allowed, 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed. The defense recorded only its 13th sack of the season against New Orleans.
The state of the Jaguars’ pass defense could (and has) cost them in a playoff game against Burrow, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa or Lamar Jackson. It nearly cost them against Derek Carr on Thursday.
Yes, the Jaguars defense picked off Carr once and did enough in the end to get the win. However, it benefited from several off throws, apparent miscommunications and tipped passes.
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Had Foster Moreau not dropped Carr’s third-down end-zone pass at the end of the game, Jacksonville might not have won at all.
Adding a top-tier pass-rusher to complement Josh Allen would go a long way to improving things up front. Allen has seven sacks on the season. 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker is next on Jacksonville’s stat sheet with just 2.5.
While there’s talent in the secondary, there’s room for an upgrade. Perimeter corner Tyson Campbell came into Thursday allowing an opposing passer rating of 100.8. Nickel corner Tre Herndon was allowing a 115.4 opposing QB rating.
Now, the first challenge of working the trade market is identifying the right target. The Jaguars may have already found one, as the team is interested in Minnesota Vikings sack-artist Danielle Hunter, according to Darren Wolfson of KTSP 5.
“I know this. Jacksonville has all sorts of interest in Danielle Hunter,” Wolfson said on the Skor North podcast (h/t John Shipley of FanNation). “What are they willing to offer? Can you complete that trade?”
Hunter, who is tied for the NFL lead in sacks with eight, is the top player on Bleacher Report’s latest Trade Block Big Board.
Chicago Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson is a player worth monitoring. He’s allowing an opposing passer rating of just 68.0 in coverage and, like Hunter, is set to be a free agent in the spring.
The second challenge, and often the more difficult one, is coming up with the trade capital and cap space to secure a quality veteran. The Jaguars have just $7.5 million in cap space and will be without a second-, third- or fourth-round 2024 draft pick—depending on Calvin Ridley’s performance this season and whether he signs a contract extension.
But being aggressive means meeting these challenges head-on and finding a way to break past them. Baalke and the Jaguars need to be aggressive over the next two weeks because they’re only a player or two away from evolving from a good team that loses early in the playoffs to a great team that makes a deep run.
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