When the Lions and Packers meet on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime) to open Week 4 of the 2023 NFL regular season, it will be a notable prime-time rematch from last season. The Lions won 20-16 at Lambeau Field in Week 18 in Aaron Rodgers’ last game as a Packer, spoiling their host’s playoff chances.
Will Jared Goff and the Lions (2-1) win again as slight favorites, or will Jordan Love the Packers (2-1) instead take early control of the NFC North? Here’s a betting breakdown for the TNF Lions-Packers showdown, including picks, predictions, and our favorite prop:
TNF INJURY UPDATES: Aaron Jones | Christian Watson | David Montgomery
Lions vs. Packers odds, spread, over/under
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Spread: Lions -1.5 (-110) | Packers +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 45.5 (-110) | UNDER 45.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Lions -125 | Packers +105
The Lions being slight road favorites in Green Bay is only mildly surprising, given the perception the visitors are the better overall team as the division favorites. It also helps there’s recent evidence (Week 18 in 2022) of Detroit being able to win at Lambeau under Dan Campbell.
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Should you bet the Lions against the spread?
The Lions come in with considerable injuries everywhere on a short week. They should be fine running the ball, and their defense can cause problems, but Jared Goff on the road in prime time usually isn’t a good formula. Although Goff went against that narrative in Week 18 last year against Green Bay and then Week 1 at the Chiefs, Green Bay’s defense should be healthier and revved up to get after him with the extra emotional boost at home. Plenty of Packers still have last year’s crushing result fresh on their minds.
Our Pick: Packers +1.5 (-110)
Should you bet the Lions vs. Packers OVER?
Love has been productive, but it’s been messy at times. Getting Aaron Jones (hamstring) and Christian Watson (hamstring) back can help him, while the Lions are hoping to have David Montgomery (thigh) in the backfield. This feels like a physical division rivalry game with some big plays but also some red-zone stalls with several field goals.
Our Pick: UNDER 45.5 (-110)
Should you bet the Packers on the moneyline?
The Packers will get some offensive reinforcements, and Love can carry the momentum of rallying them past the Saints at home. The Lions will be held enough at bay as they lose the turnover battle. The Packers will come out fired up and make a statement to compensate for last season’s Week 18 disappointment.
Final score prediction: Packers 23, Lions 20.
Best Lions-Packers prop bet on SuperDraft
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Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions — OVER 4 receptions
MORE: Full SuperDraft parlay picks for TNF
LaPorta has broken the rookie tight end convention by being great right away. He’s caught 18-of-22 targets in his first three NFL games for 186 yards, including a long TD last week. The Packers gave up five catches to Cole Kmet in the opener and six combined to Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith in Week 2. Last week, the Saints had four between Juwan Johnson, Jimmy Graham, and Taysom Hill.
The Packers are OK in tight end coverage, but they are also shakier vs. the run. LaPorta is dominating TE snaps, getting 74 percent last week with his 11 targets vs. the Falcons. It’s also looking good for top corner Jaire Alexander to return from his back injury, which can limit Josh Reynold again to funnel more targets inside to LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
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