Still sitting third in the Premier League table and needing a resurgence to defend their domestic crown, Man City face a difficult challenge as they host Aston Villa in a midweek bout.
Pep Guardiola’s side sit three points back of leaders Liverpool, currently last amongst the three-horse race at the top of the table. With both Arsenal and Liverpool facing relegation-threatened opponents, Man City must now hold serve and give themselves a chance to gain ground at a later date, lest they drop points here and fall even further back.
The scoreless draw at home against Arsenal over the weekend was a disappointing result that saw the Citizens create an alarmingly low amount of opportunities on goal despite holding a massive possessional advantage.
They now have no room for error as they meet a fellow contender for the Champions League places. Aston Villa sit fourth in the table, looking to fend off Tottenham for the final guaranteed place in next year’s European top flight, although fifth looks likely to be a qualifying position as well.
Villa have done exceptionally well to maintain course despite a litany of injuries and other squad constraints, as Ollie Watkins and John McGinn will both miss this match for various reasons, while Boubacar Kamara and Emiliano Buendia continue their lengthy time out with serious knee injuries.
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Man City vs Aston Villa prediction, odds
Moneyline lean: Man City (-350)
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Aston Villa
Aston Villa have shown impressive resilience this season amidst a number of challenges, maintaining their Champions League chase despite a bevy of squad constraints. An injury to Ollie Watkins, however, could be more damaging than any other issue faced to this point, and it will be on young Colombian forward Jhon Duran and struggling Italian import Nicolo Zaniolo to keep the Aston Villa attack afloat.
Duran has been effective in European play this season, but managed just one shot against Wolves in his 45 minute weekend cameo after Watkins was brought off. Zaniolo, meanwhile, is a poor finisher who has also been used sparingly this season, although his goal against West Ham two weeks ago looms large.
Man City will find this match challenging, but at home against a weakened opponent who has struggled against ‘Big Six’ opposition this season, they should prevail in the end.
BetMGM
(USA)
Man City win
-350
Draw
+525
Aston Villa win
+850
Both teams
to score Y/N
-140 / +100
Over / Under
3.5 goals
-110 / -130
Man City
-1.5 goals
-145
Aston Villa
+1.5 goals
+100
Man City vs Aston Villa match facts
Date: Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Kickoff time: 8:15 p.m. local (3:15 p.m. ET / 12:15 p.m. PT)
Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
Referee: Darren England, VAR: John Brooks
Last meeting: Aston Villa 1-0 Man City (Dec. 6, 2023 | Premier League)
Man City vs Aston Villa best bet
Pick: Under 3.0 total goals
Odds: +135 (DraftKings)
Manchester City’s attacking trends are inching in the wrong direction, and against an opponent with a weakened forward unit, Pep Guardiola will know one or two goals could be enough to see out this match, and thus will prioritise solidity at the back while taking few risks in possession.
Erling Haaland has just four goals in nine matches (eight starts) since his return from injury in late January, which by his standards is a bonafide slump. The Norwegian star was completely neutralised in both recent matches against their Premier League title rivals, with just five combined shots worth 0.35 xG against Liverpool and Arsenal.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have to sort out how to create chances without Ollie Watkins at the head of the attack, as Moussa Diaby will need to step up and be more consistent in the final third. Overall, there’s reasons to back the under with the goal total massively inflated in a clash between two sides that have plenty of firepower but show signs of short-term regression.
Man City vs Aston Villa prop bet
Pick: Kevin De Bruyne anytime assist & Man City to win
Odds: +100 (FanDuel)
Don’t buy any Kevin De Bruyne negativity you see online — the Belgian is back to his best after his long injury bouts. After resting over the international break, De Bruyne was heavily tested against Arsenal, and while Man City failed to unlock the Premier League’s best back line, he did everything he could to lift his team to victory.
Arsenal blanketed De Bruyne with double teams and man-marking the entire match, and yet he still produced four chances created for a 0.83 xA total. Since returning to the starting lineup from injury at the start of March, De Bruyne has collected 13 chances created worth a whopping 2.49 xA across three matches. He grabbed the assist on his side’s only goal in the 1-1 draw with Liverpool, and was massively unlucky not to find a goal contribution in the win over Manchester United before that.
The only possible issue here is Pep Guardiola could be tempted to rest his oft-injured star in this match on short rest, so wait to play this until the lineups are released, but if he starts, De Bruyne will be heavily involved up front.
Man City vs Aston Villa live stream, TV channel
TV channel
Streaming
USA
—
Peacock
Canada
—
Fubo Canada
UK
TNT Sports 1
discovery+
U.S. rights-holders NBC Sports have decided to stream this midweek match exclusively on Peacock.
In Canada, the match will be available to stream exclusively on Fubo Canada, where every match across the entirety of the 2023/24 Premier League season can be accessed.
In the UK, this broadcast rights to this match are held by TNT Sports, who place the game on TNT Sports 1 with streaming on discovery+. The slightly earlier match between Arsenal and Luton Town, meanwhile, will be on TNT Sports 2.
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