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The Mavericks go into Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals with a chance to sweep the Timberwolves on Tuesday (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Sling). The Sporting News’ betting team has identified multiple high-value wagers on BetMGM worth locking in ahead of the action.
Luka Doncic has been every bit the player that made him a finalist for MVP this season. He has scored 32-plus points in each of the first three games of this series, with shooting splits of 46.4/40.6/87.5. Combined with Kyrie Irving — who’s averaging 27.7 points per game on 52.5 percent shooting and 42.8 percent from 3-point land — this backcourt seems unstoppable.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has endured some struggles on the offensive end. Anthony Edwards has looked gassed during large stretches of the series, and Karl-Anthony Towns has shot just 37.5 percent from the floor and 13.6 percent from 3. Rudy Gobert has also had issues scoring, and his defense outside of the lane has been suspect at best.
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The Wolves now face a dire situation down 3-0 on the road with the Mavs knowing that Boston has 10 days to rest until the NBA Finals. Minnesota is getting just 1.5 points tonight against Dallas, which BetMGM lists as a -125 moneyline favorite.
As always, the Sporting News best bets are guided by value and reinforced by stats and trends. Let’s get to the top BetMGM value bets for Game 4 of the Mavs vs. Wolves series, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers.
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick
Mavericks -1.5 vs. Timberwolves (-110)
Let’s face it: Dallas wants to get this series over and done with on its home court tonight. A loss at American Airlines Center means one more flight to Minneapolis and one more tough game at Target Center (the Mavs won Game 1 by three points and Game 2 by one). It would also mean the Celtics — who will already have home-court advantage in the Finals — would have a considerable rest advantage over Dallas.
Long story short, expect the Mavericks to bring out the brooms tonight as Boston did with Indiana on Monday. Dallas has demonstrated superiority in just about every way: shooting, passing, hustle — heck, even defense. But Doncic and Irving know how tiring another trip to and from Minnesota will be, and they know how much of a disadvantage it will be to go into Boston next week with far less rest.
Jason Kidd’s team doesn’t have to change anything. KAT and Gobert have been so bad offensively that Wolves coaches Chris Finch and Micah Nori might not even know what to do offensively at this point. Edwards had his first good game of the series on Sunday, but he got so little help from his compatriots that the Wolves got beat by nine.
The biggest issue Minnesota has faced has been on the defensive end. Ant-man has been gassed trying to chase around Irving. Nobody can stop Luka, especially on the high screen-and-roll. KAT can’t stop fouling and has been woefully inadequate at containing the Mavs’ highly efficient lob game. The Mavs often look like they’re playing with their food and should cook up a sweep on Tuesday evening.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Mavs 111, Wolves 105 — Dallas wins (-125) and covers the -1.5 spread (-110), and the game finishes well OVER the projected total of 210.5 (-110).
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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet
Mavs team total OVER 105.5 vs. Wolves (-120)
Sporting News has benefited from successfully predicting three OVER bets so far this series — here’s hoping for a clean sweep tonight.
The Mavs have easily bested this over/under in four straight contests, averaging 112.5 points per game during that span. They’re coming off a 116-point effort in Game 3, they put up 115 in their previous home game against the Wolves in the regular season back in January, and they have averaged 117.2 PPG at home since the start of the 2023-24 NBA season.
Like the previous best bet said, Dallas won’t take its foot off the gas in Game 4. Jason Kidd’s squad probably views this as a must-win if it wants to mount a truly competitive NBA Finals series against the Celtics. This is fantastic value, and it is an even better bet than Dallas -1.5.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Mavs 111, Wolves 105 — Dallas wins (-125) and covers the -1.5 spread (-110), while going well OVER its projected team total of 105.5 points (-120).
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bet
Naz Reid points: OVER 12.5 (-115)
Karl-Anthony Towns has been so brutal this series that it will be a wonder if Minnesota can get 75 cents on the dollar for him on the trade market this offseason. The Wolves have turned to Naz for the clutch moments, and they would be justified to just start the Sixth Man of the Year over KAT with their backs against the proverbial wall in Game 4.
Either way, expect Reid to get heavy burn and see plenty of usage. He’s shooting 22-of-39 over Minnesota’s past four games, and he’s 11-of-20 from 3-point land this series. Why in the world aren’t Finch and company imploring Mike Conley and Edwards to get this guy more than 10 shots!?
Even without going over 14 field-goal attempts in any game this postseason, Naz has cleared this over/under in three straight contests and six total games this postseason (four of which were on the road). He’s averaging 17.3 PPG this series, and he should easily go OVER 12.5 tonight.
NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
GameTimeMoneylineSpreadO/UMavs @
Wolves8:30 pm
(TNT)DAL -125;
MIN +105DAL -1.5
(-110)210.5
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