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Pete Alonso has been at the forefront of trade rumors for nearly a year as his contractual situation with the New York Mets has gone unresolved, despite the team offering him a seven-year, $158 deal in 2023 per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Still without a deal that extends beyond this season, many expected the two-time Home Run Derby champ and 2019 NL Rookie of the Year to be traded by the deadline.
That no longer looks to be the case as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported, “The Mets continue to seek bullpen help, as they remain a buyer for now. That means Pete Alonso appears to be staying.”
That would be a mistake for two reasons, the most obvious being that if the team cannot get a deal done with its slugger, he will be free to sign elsewhere this offseason with the Mets getting no compensation in return.
He has also experienced steadily declining OPS and WAR since his breakout rookie campaign. Since his first season in the league, his OPS has dropped from .941 to .772 while he went from five wins above replacement to just 1.1 this season.
Sure, we are only through the first half of 2024 and there is plenty of time for The Polar Bear to catch fire and blast dingers, but if his numbers are any indication, there is reason to believe that will not happen.
He is currently on pace for his fewest home runs since 2021, with 19 through the first half.
Even Alonso’s on-base percentage numbers have dipped since the 2022 season, from .352 to .318 in 2023 and .319 this season. His .240 average this year is better than his abysmal .217 from a year ago, and he has already tallied 88 hits through the first half to the 123 he did a year ago, but he is still not the dynamic game-changer that he has been at other points in his career in New York.
Given Alonso’s current output, there is a real possibility that the Mets would not get what they want for him, so in the organization’s eyes, it makes more sense to hold onto him. Why risk getting nothing in return when the team could at least add a prospect or two, if not a draft pick or cash considerations?
Something is better for nothing for a guy who will cost whoever signs him a lot of money this offseason.
If the Mets have even the sneakiest suspicion that it will not be them, they must do their diligence, find a trade partner, and let Alonso take his one-man Home Run Derby show elsewhere.
Of course, he underwhelmed in that competition this season, too, as he was eliminated in the first round after mashing just 12 into the Globe Life Field stands.
The entire argument for Alonso moving before the deadline changes if the Mets know there is a better-than-even chance that they will re-sign him. He is one of the faces of the franchise, still elicits a big ovation when his bat does send a ball out of the park, and has only ever played for the Mets.
Keeping him around as one of the pillars, alongside Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo, could be one of the organization’s offseason goals. If so, holding onto him at the deadline is a priority.
If the potential that he walks away is any greater the team needs to pull off the proverbial Band-Aid and decide to split with their star now before it watches him play for another team, knowing it could have received at least something for him a few months earlier.
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