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The NFL draft goes through similar cycles almost every year. There’s a small group of quarterbacks in contention for the No. 1 pick, and there are others who might be good enough to start. All of them wind up being talked about as potential top-10 quarterbacks.
Last year, many thought Will Levis could be a dark horse to land in the top 10 after someone traded up for him on draft day. Instead, he wound up going 33rd overall to the Titans in the second round.
The cycle is beginning again in 2024. There is the clear No. 1 pick, Caleb Williams, and there are two more top prospects, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, who have been rumored all offseason to directly follow him in some order. There’s the rapid riser, J.J. McCarthy, and there are two others, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., who might jump higher than expected if a team wants to ensure it gets a signal-caller.
Until the NFL draft officially begins, there’s no telling how these QBs will be dispersed. It’s possible Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, and one of (or both) Penix and Nix go in the top 10. It’s possible it’s just the first four. It’s also possible McCarthy slips out of the top 10 entirely.
If the run on quarterbacks starts early in 2024, what would it take for this year’s draft to set the record for the most quarterbacks taken in the top 10 picks? Here’s what you need to know.
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Most quarterbacks drafted top 10
The record for top-10 quarterbacks in a single draft is shared between 1949 and 2018. It will be easy for the 1949 NFL Draft to be overlooked — there were only 10 teams — which is why 2018 is often considered to be the real benchmark for the record.
1949 NFL Draft
In 1949, the Lions drafted John Rauch second, the Packers took Stan Heath fifth, the Rams selected Bobby Thomason seventh, and the Eagles landed on Frank Tripucka ninth. Thomason and Tripucka were the only quarterbacks to pass for more than 1,000 yards in their careers, and neither finished their career with more touchdown passes than interceptions, though both received at least one Pro Bowl nod.
2018 NFL Draft
The 2018 NFL Draft class has stood the test of time a bit better, with three of the QBs currently lined up as starters for their respective teams in 2024, though only one with the team that originally drafted him. The Browns took Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield first overall. Next, the Jets took Sam Darnold with the third overall pick. Buffalo landed strong-armed Josh Allen seventh overall. The Cardinals used the No. 10 pick on Josh Rosen.
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield has had an up-and-down career, leading the Browns to a playoff win in the 2020 season but getting traded before 2022 to Carolina after falling out of favor in Cleveland. He rebuilt his career in Tampa Bay in 2023, leading the Buccaneers to an NFC South title and signing a three-year, $115 million contract in free agency to return to the Buccaneers.
Sam Darnold
Darnold showed promise over his first two seasons with the Jets, throwing for 36 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. He stood out during the final stretch of his rookie season, which featured his second 300-yard game. Darnold also had several bright spots in his second year with the team before plummeting in 2020, throwing for nine touchdowns and 11 picks. He was traded to the Panthers for a second-round pick, then signed with the 49ers to be a backup in 2023. He inked a one-year deal with the Vikings for 2024 and is currently in line to be the starter.
Josh Allen
There is no doubt Allen has had the best career of the top 10 quarterbacks drafted in 2018, though two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, who was drafted 32nd overall in 2018, has arguably had the better overall NFL tenure. Allen had relatively low completion rates over his first two seasons, but he broke out in 2020 as an MVP-caliber QB with a rocket arm and bulldozing rushing ability. He has led Buffalo to four straight division titles and playoff wins in each of the past four seasons, though he has yet to take the next step and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl. He signed a six-year, $258 million extension in Buffalo in 2021 and is widely considered a top-five quarterback.
Josh Rosen
Then there was Rosen. The Cardinals’ selection quickly flamed out, posting a woeful 11:14 TD-to-INT ratio as a rookie with a 55.2-percent completion percentage. Once considered a candidate to go first overall himself, he watched as Arizona drafted Kyler Murray first overall in 2019, and he was quickly traded to the Dolphins for a 2019 second and 2020 fifth. He appeared in six games and had one touchdown to five interceptions. He was waived the following offseason, and he has not appeared in a game since 2021.
Most quarterbacks drafted in top five
There have been five NFL draft classes that have featured three quarterbacks going in the top five. Should McCarthy wind up landing at No. 4 or 5, the 2024 draft class would set the record in this department, as well.
Those previous classes were 1954, 1971, 1999, 2021, and 2023.
1954 NFL Draft
The 1954 draft saw Bobby Garrett (No. 1, Browns), Lamar McHan (No. 2, Cardinals), and Cotton Davidson (No. 3, Colts) all land in the top five. Only Davidson went on to earn a Pro Bowl nod in his career.
1971 NFL Draft
The 1971 NFL Draft was the first time quarterbacks went 1-2-3. The Patriots kicked things off by selecting Jim Plunkett, followed by the Saints taking Archie Manning, and the Oilers drafting Dan Pastorini. Though each started for at least nine seasons, none finished their career with more touchdown passes than interceptions, and only Manning (twice) and Pastorini (once) earned Pro Bowl selections.
1999 NFL Draft
There was more success to be found in the 1999 NFL Draft, even if only from one team. Quarterbacks again went first, second, and third, starting with the Browns taking Tim Couch, the Eagles landing Donovan McNabb, and the Bengals drafting Akili Smith. Couch and Smith combined to be the primary starter for four seasons in their pro careers. McNabb earned six Pro Bowls, led the Eagles to four straight conference championships, and still holds nearly all team passing records.
2021 NFL Draft
Before there was the 2024 class for quarterbacks, there was the 2021 class. The quarterback selection had several big names, leading many to believe it could be the best group of passers in recent memory. Quarterbacks filled the top three with Trevor Lawrence going first to the Jaguars, Zach Wilson following to the Jets, and Trey Lance landing with the 49ers. Though Lawrence appeared to take the step forward many expected in his second year, he seemed to regress in his third season. Wilson has long since fallen out of favor in New York, and Lance is a backup with the Cowboys after a season-ending injury in 2022 cost him the starting gig in San Francisco, ultimately leading to the ascendancy of Brock Purdy.
2023 NFL Draft
There are still plenty of unknowns with the 2023 class, but at least one quarterback has lived up to the billing. The Panthers took Bryce Young first overall, followed by the Texans drafting C.J. Stroud second, and the Colts landing on Anthony Richardson fourth overall. Young struggled with a dismal supporting cast in Charlotte, while Richardson’s season ended early due to shoulder surgery. Stroud, however, earned a Pro Bowl nod and posted perhaps the best season by a rookie quarterback in NFL history, throwing for 23 touchdowns, 4,108 yards, and only five interceptions while leading the Texans to an AFC South crown and a wild-card win.
Most quarterbacks drafted in top three
This appears to be the most confident outcome anyone can project for this year’s draft. Unless the Patriots pull off a huge stunner at No. 3, quarterbacks will all but certainly be the top three picks in the class.
That has happened only three other times: 1971, 1999, and 2021. Between the three drafts, McNabb is so far the only player to truly become a franchise game-changer expected of such an early selection, though many believe Lawrence still has the chance to reach that ceiling.
Only time will tell if Williams, Maye, or Daniels will reach those heights, but all signs point to them getting the opportunity.
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