The majority of NBA players today would tell you that their core career goal is to win the next championship. Even those who have won it all and hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy amid confetti showers want to experience that high again. However, if you gave the top stars some truth serum and asked what drives them, many would admit that winning MVP also ranks high on their career bucket list. Today, we will take a look at the 2023-24 NBA MVP odds and declare who we view to be the best bets, sleepers, and long shots to hoist the next Michael Jordan Trophy.
Hoops-heads remember well how last year’s MVP race went. Joel Embiid went on a scoring rampage late in the season, ultimately winning the league’s scoring title, and exhibited fantastic defense throughout the campaign. Embiid’s excellence — combined with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic missing time in the home stretch of the regular season — allowed the 76ers superstar to dethrone the Joker (although Jokic would likely trade three MVPs for his 2022-23 NBA championship).
This year, many believe Joker has a great chance to get back to the top of the board. Others like the odds of former MVPs LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo to return to the MVP limelight. With a number of big stars changing places during the offseason, the futures odds suggest this award could be wide open for the foreseeable future.
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That’s where we come in handy, as we use our research and analysis to predict what’s to come. We will take a look at the 2023-24 NBA MVP odds board before breaking down who we view as best bets, top sleepers, and highest-value long shots to be recognized as the Association’s most outstanding player of the season.
NBA MVP odds 2023-24
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Player
Odds
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
+400
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
+500
Luka Doncic, Mavericks
+550
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
+800
Joel Embiid, 76ers
+850
Kevin Durant, Suns
+1100
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
+1500
Damian Lillard, Bucks
+1500
Devin Booker, Suns
+1500
Stephen Curry, Warriors
+1500
LeBron James, Lakers
+2500
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
+2500
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
+2800
Trae Young, Hawks
+3000
De’Aaron Fox, Kings
+3500
Zion Williamson, Pelicans
+4000
Jamal Murray, Nuggets
+4000
Anthony Davis, Lakers
+4000
Domantas Sabonis, Kings
+4000
Paul George, Clippers
+5000
Jalen Brunson, Knicks
+5000
Julius Randle, Knicks
+5000
Pascal Siakam, Raptors
+6000
James Harden, 76ers
+6000
Jimmy Butler, Heat
+6000
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks
+6000
LaMelo Ball, Hornets
+6000
Karl-Anthony Towns
+6000
Brandon Ingram, Pelicans
+6000
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers
+6000
DeMar DeRozan, Bulls
+7500
Mikal Bridges, Nets
+7500
Bradley Beal, Suns
+7500
Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers
+7500
Jordan Poole, Wizards
+7500
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
+7500
Darius Garland, Cavaliers
+10000
Lauri Markkanen, Jazz
+10000
Desmond Bane, Grizzlies
+10000
Zach LaVine, Bulls
+10000
NBA MVP 2023-24: Best bets
Best bet: Jayson Tatum, Celtics (+800)
Tatum stands out as easily the best player on arguably the best six-man rotation in basketball. Brad Stevens’ offseason MasterClass set Boston up nicely for a serious run at Banner 18, but the keys to the “Championship or Bust” truck still lie in JT’s hands. We’ve already seen glimpses of the new-look Celtics’ fluidity this preseason, but even when Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis shared the court with Tatum and Jaylen Brown, everyone let JT do his thing.
The 2022-23 All-NBA First Team selection has a lot of reason to be silently optimistic of his MVP chances. For one, he plays a ton of games each season, never a significant concern for rest days or load management. He also has the fact that he’s never won the award going for him, as media members in the recent past have proven that voter fatigue is indeed real. Of the top six on the MVP odds board, only Tatum and Luka Doncic have zero MVP trophies. Considering I have Dallas failing to make the playoffs and Boston winning the East, JT gets the nod for me.
He’s more than just a scorer and a winner. Tatum is also an underrated defender, ball-handler, rebounder, and passer, and he’s emerging into a quiet leader He has style and substance, and now he has one of the three best teams in the NBA. If Tatum averages 30/8/5, shoots and defends well, and leads Boston to the No. 1 seed, Joel Embiid might be getting knocked out of the race by the leader of his least favorite team.
Other best bets: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (+400); Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (+500)
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Top value: Devin Booker, Suns (+1500)
Even after Kevin Durant landed in Phoenix, Book remained “the guy.” From the jump, KD has deferred to Booker as the Suns’ go-to scorer and playmaker. Chris Paul, who has since become a Warrior by way of Washington, even took a backseat to Booker at point guard during the postseason. Now that a championship-caliber cast has been placed around him, Booker stands out as an incredibly intriguing MVP value.
When CP3 left, he vacated the 9.5 assists per game he averaged in his three-year run as the Sun’s point-man. Since Book is the best ball-handler, passer, and playmaker remaining in Phoenix’s core rotation — and he has KD, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen, and Yuta Watanabe as catch-and-shoot options — we have to imagine Book becomes the main benefactor of that deserted boatload of dimes. He already averaged 5.5 with Paul active, and he flirted with seven per game before CP3 landed in Phoenix. With the sheer embarrassment of riches around him now, it’s easy to envision him dropping eight dimes a game.
The 28 points per game almost feels like a BINGO free square at this point, and Booker’s ramped-up defense in the 2023 NBA Playoffs gives us hope that if he really wants to go all-in for the best record in the West and his first MVP trophy, he can make it happen. We’re putting a modest bet on Book over Shai Gilgeous Alexander at +1500 because Book’s been around longer and the Suns should win 10-15 more games than the Thunder.
Other strong value bets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (+1500)
Best sleeper: Anthony Davis, Lakers (+4000)
What’s not to love about these odds? AD’s only 30 and still in his prime, so we expect big things from the Brow this season. LeBron had to step up in Davis’s absence between December and January last season, with the modern-day GOAT’s usage rate skyrocketing to levels we haven’t seen from him since 2009-10. If he doesn’t have to work that hard or score that much, King James will not. He’s excluded from the NBA’s player participation policy due to his age and service time, so AD will likely be the main man (barring injury, of course) during the regular-season campaign.
With a solid team around them for the first time since L.A.’s bubble championship, AD and Bron should have a much better regular-season record than last year. Between Rob Pelinka’s masterful trade-deadline deals and Austin Reaves’ breakout, the Lakers went 18-8 following the deadline and proceeded to cruise to the Western Conference Finals. They lost to Denver in a clean sweep, of course, but that had a lot to do with James clearly not being 100 percent due to injury and the fatigue of that aforementioned high usage.
When Davis is healthy, nobody in the league is more dominant from end-to-end. He’s an unbelievably skilled defender and shot blocker, he rebounds everything that’s near him, he can shoot from all three levels, and he gets to the line a ton. He runs the floor well, passes efficiently, and complains to the refs a small fraction of the time his fellow superstars do each year. Come next June, oddsmakers might regret offering up this much of a payout for one of the game’s best.
Best long shot: Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers (+7500)
It’s a long shot because the Pacers are a long shot, but why not put a five-spot down on Hali? He already distinguished himself as one of the best passers and shooters in the NBA last season, and Indiana seems to get better and more confident with each passing year.
A lot has to go right around Haliburton for him to emerge as a true contender, but last year we probably would have said the same thing about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Now, SGA’s at +1500 odds. There’s nothing to dislike about Hali — he’s smart, gifted, and a class act through and through. If we lose $5, we say whatever. If we win $375, we’re going streaking through the quad.
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