One of the many picks we made in our predictions file is who will lead the NBA in scoring this season.
There is no shortage of good options. Joel Embiid has won the last two scoring titles and is showing no signs of slowing down. Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are always a threat. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry are now in their mid-30s, but they’re still very much a part of the conversation.
Even with those and many other players in mind, there was a clear winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is coming off a breakout season that saw him earn his first All-Star and All-NBA selections.
I was one of five people who voted for the Thunder star. Here’s why he got my vote.
MORE: The Sporting News ranks the top 30 players in the NBA
Three reasons Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the NBA in scoring
1. Gilgeous-Alexander already has a seat at the table
Gilgeous-Alexander competed for the scoring title last season. He averaged a career-best 31.4 points per game, putting him behind only Embiid (33.1), Doncic (32.4) and Damian Lillard (32.2) for the highest mark in the league.
Gilgeous-Alexander generated more than half of his scoring in pick-and-rolls and isolation. He’s still not a high-volume 3-point shooter, but he’s an excellent midrange shooter and a strong finisher in the paint. He also lives at the free-throw line. Only Embiid and Antetokounmpo took more free throws than he did last season.
One thing the best defenders in the NBA will tell you about Gilgeous-Alexander is that he’s stronger than his 195-pound frame would suggest. He’s got a particularly mean shoulder, which he uses creatively to carve out the space he needs to get off a shot.
You’ve probably seen at least one video of Gilgeous-Alexander breaking a defender’s ankles at this point. Look closely and you’ll probably notice him throwing them off balance with a friendly nudge.
Gilgeous-Alexander has mastered how to create distance between himself and his defender. His shot is hard to contest, too. He’s a big guard at 6-6 with a 6-11.5 wingspan. That size helps him shoot over all types of defenders.
Put it all together and there isn’t really an answer for Gilgeous-Alexander anymore. He has a size advantage over most guards, and he’s either too shifty or too crafty for bigs to keep up with off the dribble. (More on that shiftiness and creativity here.) The Thunder also space the floor quite well for him. He’s almost always surrounded by at least three shooters and could have even more space moving forward with Chet Holmgren playing center.
If you need a bucket, few do it as well as Gilgeous-Alexander right now.
2. Gilgeous-Alexander faces less competition at the top
Working in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor is that the usual suspects might not average as many points this season.
Embiid could lead the NBA in scoring for a third time in a row, especially if James Harden remains away from the team, but 76ers head coach Nick Nurse has talked about making him more of a playmaker, so maybe his scoring drops a tad. (Also, Harden helped Embiid reach new levels as a scorer last season. Not having Harden feed him the ball could have an impact.)
Doncic averaged fewer points after the Mavericks acquired Kyrie Irving at last season’s trade deadline. He will now have a full season playing alongside Irving. Lillard and Antetokounmpo could also see their scoring take a hit now that they’re teammates.
Of course, further development from Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams, plus the arrival of Holmgren, could eat into Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot attempts, but he is still the unquestionable No. 1 option in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are going to lean on his scoring all season long.
In fact, the development of his teammates could make Gilgeous-Alexander an even better scorer.
3. Gilgeous-Alexander will have more help
The Thunder weren’t a one-man show last season, but Gilgeous-Alexander still did a lot of heavy lifting.
According to NBA.com, 79.0 percent of Gilgeous-Alexander’s made shots were unassisted. If that sounds like a lot, it is. Only Doncic created baskets for himself at a higher rate.
As the likes of Giddey, Williams and Holmgren grow, Gilgeous-Alexander should get more opportunities to play off-ball, which could juice his number even more. It hasn’t been a big part of his game to this point of his career, but he’s shown the ability to knock down catch-and-shoot 3s. Between 2019-20 and 2021-22, he canned 42.3 percent of those opportunities.
Similarly, he didn’t score much off of cuts last season, but the numbers point to him being very good at it when he did.
It would be one thing if Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t willing to play off-ball, but it sounds like he is.
“The best teams, like the best teams that have played the game. The teams that have won the most games, won the most championships, they play together,” he said before the season. “I don’t know if you saw The Last Dance documentary, but there’s a point in Michael Jordan’s career where he had to learn the triangle offense and playing (without) the ball in his hands 24/7. So if Michael Jordan has to do it, I definitely have to do it.”
Jordan won 10 scoring titles in his career. He’s not a bad person for Gilgeous-Alexander to learn from.
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