There might not be a better weekend of matchups than the slate of games on Sunday.
NFL fans begin their morning by watching the Chiefs face the Dolphins in Germany. The early afternoon window features the high-powered offenses of the Seahawks and Ravens squaring off before the Cowboys and Eagles face off in their first rivalry matchup of the year.
The night cap to the day ends with an AFC Divisional Round rematch between the Bengals and Bills that should be another close battle with Cincinnati on the upswing after a win against the 49ers.
MORE: Sign up for Caesars to make your NFL Week 9 picks
Each week, Sporting News’ model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team’s quarterback.
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team’s win probability. We’ve also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model’s odds with those from Caesars, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week’s games.
Here’s how the model sees Week 9 shaping up.
NFL WEEK 9 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
NFL picks, predictions Week 9
Steelers (-2) vs. Titans
Win probability: 58.6%, Steelers
Kenny Pickett appears on track to play on “Thursday Night Football,” which should give the Steelers a boost against a decent Titans team. Tennessee looked slightly better on offense with Will Levis under center, and he’s expected to get the start again against Pittsburgh. Bookmakers have the Steelers as 2.5-point home favorites against the Titans, nearly the same as the 2-point spread by the model, in what could be a low-scoring game.
Chiefs (-8) vs. Dolphins
Win probability: 75.7%, Chiefs
Kansas City dropped a game to the Broncos for the first time in 16 games, and questions have quickly re-emerged about the offense. Despite that, the model is still much more confident in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, making them a whopping eight-point favorites over the Dolphins. Caesars projects the spread much closer in Germany, favoring Kansas City only by 1.5.
Vikings (-4) vs. Falcons
Win probability: 63.4%, Vikings
The first where the model and betting markets disagree, the model has the Vikings as 4-point favorites, while Caesars has the Falcons as 5-point favorites. The major changes are at quarterback, where the Vikings will turn to Jaren Hall and the Falcons will turn to Taylor Heinicke. To understand why the model leaned this way, it’s important to bear in mind it sets a standard value for rookie quarterbacks with little to no experience, which, while still lower than its valuation of Heinicke, still means it’s not counting him out. The model sees Minnesota as a better team at this point in the season than Atlanta and puts the QB situation at nearly a toss up, giving Minnesota the edge even on the road.
Browns (-12) vs. Cardinals
Win probability: 84.3%, Browns
Both the Browns and Cardinals come into the week with quarterback uncertainty. The Browns will either turn to P.J. Walker for a fourth straight game or have Deshaun Watson attempt to return from injury. The Cardinals will either have Clayton Tune or Kyler Murray return. Regardless of who’s starting in center, both the model (12 points) and Caesars (8 points) are favoring the Browns heavily in a home tilt against Arizona.
Rams (PK) vs. Packers
Win probability: 50.2%, Rams
This spread could change if Matthew Stafford is unable to go against the Packers, but for now, the model has the game as a slight Rams edge, even if only by fractions of a percent. The Packers are in a free fall with four straight losses, while the Rams at least have looked somewhat better despite a blowout loss to the Cowboys. Caesars has the Packers as 3-point favorites in Green Bay.
Texans (-3) vs. Buccaneers
Win probability: 61.1%, Texans
The Buccaneers started off hot with a 3-1 record, but have now lost three straight games. The Texans are still a bit unpredictable, having just lost to the Panthers for Carolina’s first win of the season. A big part of the decision for the game comes down to the quarterback and the location: C.J. Stroud at this point appears better than Baker Mayfield, and the game is in Houston. The line from Caesars (2.5) and the model (3) is nearly the same in favoring Houston.
Saints (-7) vs. Bears
Win probability: 73.1%, Saints
Tyson Bagent has certainly had his moments in filling in for Justin Fields so far over the past few games. But heading on the road to face New Orleans seems like a rough draw, even if the Saints aren’t as good as the model initially expected them to be. The Saints made it close against Jacksonville then drummed the Colts to establish some faith this team can still be the top of the NFC South. Caesars (8.5) has even less faith in the Bears than the model (7), which both have spreads picking the Saints to win at home.
Patriots (-4) vs. Commanders
Win probability: 64.3%, Patriots
It’s important to note that the only personnel the model considers for teams is the quarterback. That the Commanders traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young does not factor into the projection. Yet it is in agreement with Caesars to favor New England by slightly more than a field goal, with the market putting the Pats as 3.5-point favorites and the model going by 4.
Ravens (-5) vs. Seahawks
Win probability: 67%, Ravens
Despite wide spreads from the model (5) and Caesars (6) that both pick Baltimore to win, this has all the makings of an intriguing game. The Seahawks acquired Leonard Williams to bolster their defense, and the offense has looked solid despite some redzone inefficiencies. The Ravens, however, appear to be a true Super Bowl contender and will hope to use this home matchup against Seattle to further bolster their position atop the AFC North both in the current standings and in the projected season.
Panthers (-1) vs. Colts
Win probability: 55.1%, Panthers
The Panthers finally picked up their first win of the season. Now the model is picking them to get their second, favoring Carolina by a point in a close matchup with Indianapolis. Caesars is still skeptical of the Panthers, and has the Colts as 2.5-point favorites.
Eagles (-5) vs. Cowboys
Win probability: 68%, Eagles
In most weeks, this might appear to be the most compelling game of the week. The Cowboys have been streaky, but look dominant when they’re on. The Eagles have kept winning, but have not been as dominant as past years. The NFC East will get its first glimpse of seeing the two teams head-to-head when they meet up in Philadelphia. Both Caesars (3) and the model (5) are picking the Eagles, but the spreads are within a single score.
Raiders (-1) vs. Giants
Win probability: 54.4%, Raiders
The Giants could be in line to get Daniel Jones back, which would be a huge boost for an offense that accumulated minus-9 passing yards last week in an overtime loss to the Jets. The Raiders are in a tumultuous spot, having just fired Josh McDaniels and replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with Aidan O’Connell. Garoppolo has been among the worst QBs in the league when on the field, so starting O’Connell actually boosts Las Vegas’ chances to win at home. Caesars has the Raiders as 2-point favorites, just a half-point ahead of the model’s 1-point Raiders edge.
Bengals (-1) vs. Bills
Win probability: 54.7%, Bengals
This certainly appears to be the Game of the Week. The Bengals are back after the offense roared to life on the road against the 49ers, while the Bills looked explosive again after torching a decent Buccaneers defense. Cincinnati trounced Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round last year, but this has all the makings of a nail-biter between two of the AFC’s top Super Bowl contenders. It’s close, with Caesars picking the Bengals by 2 and the model going Bengals by 1, both reflective of Cincinnati’s homefield advantage.
Chargers (PK) vs. Jets
Win probability: 51.1%, Chargers
The model is not totally sold on the Chargers. Los Angeles crushed the Bears, but it’s otherwise been an underwhelming season. That’s why Caesars favors Los Angeles by 3, and the model has the game as a pick ’em. The Jets continue to find ways to win, and at home in prime time, that could be all the difference in the model’s eyes.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Dolphins 11-6 58.0% 26.5% 84.6% 11.4% 9.1% 4.6% Bills 10-7 24.6% 38.5% 63.1% 2.2% 7.0% 3.5% Jets 9-8 17.3% 28.6% 45.9% 1.4% 2.3% 1.3% Patriots 5-12 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AFC North
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Ravens 12-5 65.2% 26.5% 91.7% 18.5% 16.9% 8.6% Bengals 10-7 15.8% 39.8% 55.6% 2.2% 5.2% 2.5% Browns 10-7 10.3% 35.9% 46.2% 1.1% 2.1% 1.0% Steelers 9-8 8.7% 30.8% 39.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5%
AFC South
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Jaguars 12-5 85.4% 6.7% 92.1% 14.1% 12.1% 6.5% Titans 8-9 8.5% 12.4% 21.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% Texans 7-10 4.9% 10.7% 15.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Colts 7-10 1.1% 5.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
AFC West
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Chiefs 13-4 94.5% 4.1% 98.6% 47.2% 41.4% 22.5% Chargers 8-9 5.0% 26.7% 31.7% 0.5% 2.1% 0.8% Broncos 7-10 0.2% 4.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Raiders 6-11 0.3% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NFC East
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Eagles 13-4 75.0% 24.7% 99.7% 52.3% 37.7% 19.8% Cowboys 11-6 24.9% 68.5% 93.4% 14.1% 14.1% 6.1% Giants 6-11 0.1% 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commanders 6-11 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NFC North
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Lions 12-5 77.2% 18.2% 95.4% 16.3% 14.1% 6.3% Vikings 9-8 22.0% 50.2% 72.2% 1.1% 4.2% 1.7% Packers 6-11 0.4% 4.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bears 6-11 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NFC South
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% Saints 9-8 57.1% 11.7% 68.9% 0.6% 2.8% 0.9% Falcons 8-9 31.9% 13.6% 45.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% Buccaneers 7-10 10.2% 7.8% 18.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Panthers 5-12 0.8% 0.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NFC West
Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion% 49ers 11-6 66.2% 28.6% 94.7% 11.6% 19.9% 10.0% Seahawks 10-7 32.0% 49.6% 81.6% 3.9% 6.4% 2.8% Rams 7-10 1.8% 15.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Cardinals 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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