NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 2 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 1 Results

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Chiefs QB Patrick MahomesScott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season wrapped on Monday night with the New York Jets’ overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills. There’s plenty upon which to reflect, but the league will be back in action in just a couple of days.

The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles will kick off Week 2 on Thursday Night Football. With the full list of second-week odds available, let’s dive into some of the early lines that are worth exploiting before they shift.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

Packers -1 Versus Falcons

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Packers RB Aaron JonesTodd Rosenberg/Getty Images

This is a line that is likely to increase with it looking increasingly likely that Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (hamstring) will be fine.

Jones exited Green Bay’s 38-20 win over the Chicago Bears with the injury and did not return. However, it appears that his absence was merely precautionary.

“I’ve pulled my hamstring before, so I didn’t really feel a pull. Just a little bite. Thank for [coach] LaFleur for always looking out for me and my best interest,” Jones said, per ESPN’s Rob Demovsky.

The Packers should be at close to full strength against an Atlanta Falcons team that got gashed by the run (154 yards) on Sunday. Green Bay did a surprisingly good job of limiting the Bears’ ground game—a few Justin Fields scrambles aside—and Atlanta is still very much a run-oriented team.

This is essentially a pick-’em at this point in the week, and Green Bay should be able to control the tempo and the clock with Jones and AJ Dillon while getting the occasional big play from Jordan Love.

Expect a close game here with the Packers pulling it out late.

Chiefs -3 Versus Jaguars

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Chiefs TE Travis KelceMichael Owens/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs fell to the Detroit Lions by the narrowest of margins last Thursday. The defense did a tremendous job of limiting a potent Lions offense, but offensive miscues led to the one-point loss.

A third of Detroit’s points came on a picked Patrick Mahomes pass that bounced out of Kadarius Toney’s hands.

Kansas City has a long layoff and plenty of time to address its offensive issues ahead of its matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s also looking like they’ll have star tight end Travis Kelce (knee) back in the lineup.

“My sense and guess would be that the Chiefs will get Travis Kelce back this week,” ESPN’s Adam Schefter told The Pat McAfee Show.

Kansas City should also have defensive tackle Chris Jones back after he agreed to a new contract on Monday.

The Jaguars will present a tough challenge in Jacksonville, but the Chiefs will be desperate to erase the bitter taste of Thursday’s loss. The defense should do a good enough job of limiting Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense—as it did against the Lions—while the offense should suffer far fewer self-inflicted wounds with Kelce on the field.

Kansas City should win by a field goal, and the line is likely to move beyond that once Kelce’s return becomes official.

Buccaneers -3 Versus Bears

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Buccaneers QB Baker MayfieldDavid Berding/Getty Images

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shocked the Minnesota Vikings on the road in Week 1. It wasn’t easy, as Tampa survived a nine-catch, 150-yard performance by Justin Jefferson and required one last gritty drive to put the game away.

The Bears, meanwhile, struggled with offensive chemistry and cohesion throughout their loss to the Packers. New additions like Nate Davis, D.J. Moore and Darnell Wright were supposed to boost Fields’ protection and Chicago’s passing prowess. However, the Bears offense looked a lot like it did in 2022—with Fields frequently having to play hero ball.

If the Bears can’t jump-start their passing game, they’re going to have a hard time against a Bucs defense that allowed just 41 rushing yards and 2.4 yards per carry against Minnesota. Fields and Moore may eventually form a terrific tandem, but they don’t have the existing chemistry that Jefferson and Kirk Cousins share.

Expect a defensive battle in Tamps, and the Buccaneers have the better defense. Mayfield, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will do just enough to allow the home team to win by more than a field goal.

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