Week 9 in the NFL was full of some predictable results and favorites coming through, even with a few last-minute beats. That still did plenty to build our confidence ahead with picks and predictions against the spread in the middle of the 2023 season.
Although the point totals have been all over the place with surprise shootouts and sudden shutdowns, there’s a much idea of what teams are better than others, and by how much. That said, what we did last week is pointless without a sunnier fearless forecast for the following week.
Here are Sporting News’ NFL picks against the spread for Week 10.
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
POWER RANKINGS: Steelers, Browns join Ravens, Bengals in top 10
NFL picks against the spread for Week 10
Game of Midweek: Panthers at Bears (-3, 40.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Bryce Young is up-and-down as expected and is very dependent on his support system. The running game, receiving corps and offensive line have all been limited or inconsistent. Whether it’s Tyson Bagent or Justin Fields, the Bears can go after the injury-depleted Panthers defense well, through the rushing attack and through a motivated revenge-minded D.J. Moore in the passing game.
Pick: Bears win 23-17 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: 49ers (-2.5, 44.5 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Neither Kyle Shanahan nor Doug Pederson have great track records after byes. San Francisco is going cross country here and its running game will make it to Jacksonville vs. a tough run defense. Brock Purdy also should be sharper from the time off with better healthy around him. Look for the 49ers’ pass rush to rev up with more help and do enough for Purdy to outduel Lawrence on the road.
Pick: 49ers win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Steelers (-3.5, 37 o/u) over Packers
Sunday 1 p.m.. ET, CBS
The Steelers’ defense will be licking its chops for a limited Packers offense with Jordan Love still fighting through it. Wisconsin native T.J. Watt will be ready to tear into Green Bay’s offensive line and on the other side, Pittsburgh’s run blocking should come through in a fine spot to keep both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren hot. Kenny Pickett won’t need late QB heroics here.
Pick: Steelers win 23-13 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Vikings (+2.5, 40.5 o/u) over Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Josh Dobbs has saved Minnesota’s season and at 5-4, it is very much in the NFC wild-card and division mix after recovering well from an 0-3 start. Also at 5-4, New Orleans is back in control of a weak NFC South. These teams are even and the Vikings’ defense remains on the uptick under Brian Flores, while the Saints’ defense has holes, especially vs. mobile QBs such as Dobbs. Derek Carr on the road gets roughed up enough.
Pick: Vikings win 24-23.
Colts (.1.5, 43.5 o/u) at Patriots (in Frankfurt, Germany)
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
Gardner Minshew is taking some hits in the passing game, but he’s been lifted by Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss running every week and the defense is starting to get better, especially on the back end vs. the pass. Mac Jones has been more competent with more diverse weapons and a running game revival, but he’s still missing throws and making a few key mistakes.
Pick: Colts win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Texans at Bengals (-8, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
C.J. Stroud is red-hot as a former Ohio State QB. Unfortunately, Joe Burrow is also sizzling as a former Ohio State QB. Stroud and the offense hasn’t been the same on the road and Cincinnati has a tough pass defense with its strong cornerbacks and bookend pressure. Burrow picks apart Houston’s pass defense inside out, while Stroud cools off in the Jungle.
Pick: Bengals win 33-22 and cover the spread.
Titans at Buccaneers (-1.5, 39 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Will Levis will be bright-eyed with his big arm trying to exploit a Buccaneers’ reeling pass defense that will be trying to pick up the pieces of being torched by Stroud. The good news is, the Titans’ run defense has suddenly become vulnerable and Rachaad White is hot. The Bucs can still slow Derrick Henry. Baker Mayfield also has the receivers to give the Titans’ corners trouble.
Pick: Buccaneers win 24-21 and cover the spread.
Browns at Ravens (-5.5, 38.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
These two defenses were absolutely destructive and dominant in Week 9 against overmatched NFC West foes. Cleveland is ripping through everyone with Myles Garrett but tends to play much better defense at home. Baltimore has brought it with a nasty pass rush and secondary that few expected even with their past reputation. The Browns can give it up on the ground on the road and the Ravens are rolling with the run. Deshaun Watson still isn’t playing well back healthy and he’ll make too many mistakes under pressure.
Pick: Ravens win 20-17 but fail the cover the spread.
Falcons (-2, 41.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Falcons will hope for better results with Taylor Heinicke as their offense continues to have lost any rushing or passing identity. The Cardinals cannot afford to trot out Clayton Tune again and should want to see what a healhy Kyler Murray can do before considering best QB plans for 2024. If Murray plays, the Falcons’ defense has proved the past two weeks it doesn’t respond well to QB curveballs, either with athleticism or a big arm.
Pick: Cardinals win 23-20.
Lions (-1.5, 48.5 o/u) at Chargers
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Lions will have their offense at full strength after a bye around Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown. They also should have a good traveling crowd in their favor to cheer on their NFC powerhouse push. They will regroup vs. the run and be ready to chase Justin Herbert as L.A. gets too one-dimensional with limited weapons under former Lions QB Kellen Moore. The Chargers’ pass rush will be held in check while St. Brown goes off to lead a big scoring charge.
Pick: Lions win 31-24 and cover the spread.
Giants at Cowboys (-15.5, 39.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Giants have lost Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor at QB, leaving them with Tommy DeVito and Matt Barkley. That doesn’t feel good at all vs. a red-hot Dak Prescott and a defense (and special teams) that beat them up 40-0 in the first meeting in New York in Week 1. Dallas will take out its disappointment in Philadelphia by ripping into another, much weaker NFC East rival at home.
Pick: Cowboys win 30-9 and cover the spread.
Commanders at Seahawks (-6, 45 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Commanders go from Washington city to state and will hope they keep playing well on the road with Sam Howell. The Seahawks are coming back from getting blasted on the Beltway in Baltimore and won’t mind this get-well game at all for both their power rushing attack and downfield passing game. Geno Smith plays much better, while Howell gets rattled a few many times.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-17 and cover the spread.
Jets (-1.5, 36.5 o/u) at Raiders
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Jets are coming off a short week in prime time and a hard-fought home game vs. another AFC West opponents, the Chargers. The Raiders are playing more inspired defense with a tough, relentless running game at home under interim coach Antonio Pierce, having just ripped into a much worse New York team from the NFC. The Raiders can hang in there with a run-heavy, physical approach, while this is a tough road trip for Zach Wilson. It’s time to cool the Jets as the Raiders regress more positively to the mean.
Pick: Raiders win 20-17.
Broncos at Bills (-7.5, 45.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Russell Wilson is playing well and at 3-5, the Broncos were inspired enough to think their offense, with Javonte Williams fully healthy to lift the rushing attack, can them back in the AFC playoff picture. Denver does have much great confidence with the defense playing well and just having dusted Kansas City before the bye. But Buffalo is ready to bump off a lesser team at home after losing in some tough road spots at New England and Cincy of late. Look for former Bronco Von Miller to finally have some impact getting revenge by dropping Wilson.
Pick: Bills win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 9 straight up: 10-3
Week 9 against the spread: 8-5
Season straight up: 95-40
Season against the spread: 76-56-1
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