After a Week 12 slate packed with matchups between all 32 teams and spread out over four days, there will be a more normal slate of games this week.
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⚡ Quick NFL picks for Week 13
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders: Dolphins -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cardinals +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: Lions -4 (-110) at BetRivers
NFL Week 13 overview
The Thanksgiving games did not fully live up to the hype with the Commanders beating the Cowboys 45-10 and the 49ers taking down the Seahawks 31-13. The most surprising performance was the Packers pulling off a 29-22 upset over the Detroit Lions led by a three-touchdown performance by Jordan Love.
The trend of blowouts continues in the first-ever Black Friday matchup as the Dolphins secured a 34-13 victory over the Jets. On Sunday a number of games returned to their normal chaos with six games being decided by a one-possession score.
The Philadelphia Eagles continue to hold the best record in the NFL after taking down the Buffalo Bills 37-34 in a thrilling overtime win. They moved to 10-1 on the year and dropped the Bills to 6-6 which dropped them to +475 odds to even make the playoffs. There are plenty of notable storylines ahead of the week 13 slate as several teams have put themselves in a difficult position ahead of the final playoff push.
The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, and Las Vegas Raiders will each be off this week on a bye- making this tied with Week 7 for the most teams having off. Regardless, there are 13 games on the NFL schedule and plenty at stake for the active teams.
Here is a look at the best value on the NFL betting markets with the regular season continuing to wind down.
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NFL Week 13 – NFL odds & betting tips
⭐ Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders: Dolphins -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
The Miami Dolphins enter this matchup with an 8-3 record and coming off back-to-back victories. In contrast, the Washington Commanders hold a record of 4-8 and very well may have hit their low point of the season in their 45-10 Thanksgiving loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Washington ranks dead last defensively by allowing 29.2 points per game. They also rank 29th in yards allowed, 28th in turnover percentage, 31st in net yards per pass attempt, and dead last in passing touchdowns allowed.
All hope of righting the ship sailed out the window when the Commanders turned to sellers at the trade deadline. With Chase Young and Montrez Sweat each being traded away, the already poor defense lost what was likely their two best playe
This is especially concerning considering the Commanders will now have to attempt to slow down the high-flying offense of the Miami Dolphins. On the season, Miami ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 30.8 points per game. They also are 1st in total yards, 1st in passing touchdowns, 1st in net yards per rush attempts, and 5th in score percentage.
Tua Tagovailoa finds himself in the MVP hunt and is loaded with weapons around him to continue bolstering his numbers. Miami has covered the spread against the last eight teams they have played with a losing record while the Commanders have lost each of their last eight home games in December and failed to cover the spread in their last six December games.
Don’t overcomplicate this one and take the Dolphins to dominate the Commanders. They have far too much firepower on the offensive end for the Washington defense to be able to stop and not nearly the possible production on the offensive end to match this.
While the Miami defense is vulnerable and gives the Commanders a chance to still put up some points, don’t be surprised if this turns into a blowout early on. Washington has lost by double digits in four of their eight losses this season including the past two games. Expect this trend to continue and for the Dolphins to cover the -9.5 spread.
🏈 Wager on the Dolphins to cover the -9.5 spread at -110 with BetMGM 🏈
⭐ Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cardinals +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the more difficult teams to get a feel for this year. They enter Week 13 with a 7-4 record and with the inside track to a playoff spot.
Despite this, they have yet to put forth a convincing performance and have not won a game by more than a one-possession margin all season. Pittsburgh is averaging just 16.5 points per game which is 28th in the NFL. They have clearly stuck to the script of limiting turnovers, which they have lost the fewest turnovers in the league, and winning with their defense.
Led by T.J. Watt, the Steelers have a fearsome unit that is allowing 5th fewest points per game at 18.6. The defense also has done a nice job forcing turnovers as they rank 3rd in the league in both turnovers and turnover percentage.
On the other side, the Arizona Cardinals hold a record of 2-10 with their playoff hopes nonexistent. They have struggled on both sides of the ball this season ranking 31st in points allowed at 26.8 points per game and 25th in points scored at 17.2 points per game.
However, it should be noted that Kyler Murray returned from his ACL tear and has suited up the past three weeks to give the offense a slightly different look. While Murray is still shaking off some rust, the Cardinals are 1-2 in the games he has played and his ability to run with the football provides a dangerous element for opposing defenses.
Don’t expect this to be a high-scoring affair or the most aesthetically pleasing football, but 5.5 points is too many to give to the Steelers. Count on Kyler Murray to do enough on offense to keep the Cardinals in the game and to keep within this margin.
Four of the Steelers’ seven wins this season have fallen within a five-point margin and expect this to be added to the list. While Kenny Pickett is coming off arguably his best game of the season, it is still fair to be skeptical if he has the talent level to be capable of blowing out anyone. Count on this being a hard-nosed matchup and for a field goal likely making the difference.
🏈 Bet on the +5.5 point spread at -110 with DraftKings 🏈
⭐ Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: Lions -3.5 (-110) at BetRivers
Despite having their best start to the season since 1962, the Lions suffered the all-too-familiar feeling of losing on Thanksgiving last week. While the 29-22 loss to the Packers may have spoiled the holiday, they still sit at 8-3 and lead the NFC North.
They have an appealing bounceback spot here against the Saints who are 5-6 on the season and have been all over the place this year. They also will be entering this matchup on extended rest which is much needed after playing three games in a 12-day span. This will be a bit of a homecoming for Lions head coach Dan Campbell as he spent five seasons coaching under Sean Peyton in New Orleans from 2016 to 2020.
The Saints enter this matchup with a 5-6 record and tied with the Falcons for first place in the NFC South. They most recently suffered a 24-15 loss at the hands of the Falcons last week which complicated their route to win the division from here.
It should still be noted that these two teams will face off once again to end the season, but New Orleans will have their sights set on staying in the hunt.
Derek Carr has not provided the stability at quarterback that was hoped for as he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 2535 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. As a team, the Saints rank 18th in scoring at 20.8 points per game and are allowing 20.2 points per game which is the 9th best rate.
While the Saints should not be included in the conversation for bottom-of-the-barrel teams across the NFL, they are too inconsistent to count on weekly. Detroit will be looking to rebound from the Thanksgiving loss and the extra rest will be key for this team.
They have played at a much higher peak compared to the Saints this year so expect Detroit’s offensive firepower to be the difference. Their 26.7 points per game ranks 7th in the NFL and they have been held under 20 points per game just once this season.
Expect this to be a high-scoring affair but for the Lions to cruise to a comfortable victory and continue building up their resume for the postseason. Count on them to cover the 3.5-point spread and for the Saints to be unable to keep pace with their scoring.
🏈 Bet on the Lions to cover the 3.5-point spread at -110 with BetRivers 🏈
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About the author
Sean Barnard
Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.
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