Olympic Games Triathlon: Alex Yee vs Hayden Wilde ‘top trumps’

The first thing to say is that the men’s triathlon at the Olympics isn’t just about Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde.

Kristian Blummenfelt is back to defend his title against the two men who joined him on the podium in Tokyo.

Hosts France have such strength in depth that they couldn’t find room for two-time World Champion Vincent Luis.

And if the likes of America’s Morgan Pearson or Aussie Matt Hauser are in the mix on the run then they will be a threat to everyone.

But on everything we’ve seen since Tokyo there’s still a strong chance that it boils down to Yee and Wilde – and that’s certainly the view of the bookies.

They’ve had an absorbing rivalry over since the last Olympics and when they turn up fit and firing, they tend to dominate.

So if that’s the case next Tuesday – and with thanks to stats guru Graeme Acheson of Sports4Cast for the deep-dive data analysis in this piece – how do they stack up against each other?

Swim: Yee 7/10, Wilde 8/10

Graeme has looked at around 750,000 Olympic-distance results to generate the data and he’s come up with an overall average for each athlete in each discipline, their fastest-ever time for swim, bike and run – and then a ‘form’ indication, which is their average time since the start of 2023.

So let’s start with his verdict on the swim for our dynamic duo: “Yee and Wilde are not the fastest swimmers in the field, but are good enough to hold the feet of athletes in front.

“Wilde is marginally the stronger of the two, and given Yee’s run prowess he may look to take advantage here and put Yee under pressure early.”

Hayden Wilde in action during the swim (Photo – World Triathlon).

It may have been over half the distance but that’s what happened at the Commonwealth Games in 2022 when Wilde pulled out a great swim in Birmingham to lead Yee by 15 seconds out of the water.

It’s been interesting in the build-up this week hearing Alex talking about his swimming. He thinks he’s made big strides in the last 12 months or so and believes the recent training in the river in Libourne will stand him in good stead to handle the strong currents in the Seine.

But on what we’ve seen so far, it’s got to be a narrow advantage to Wilde early on.

Bike: Yee 9/10, Wilde 9/10

Acheson says even the stats don’t really separate two of the strongest riders, who do more than their fair share to animate the bunch.

He told us: “Both Yee and Wilde are right up there on the bike and can hardly be split statistically.

“Wilde has marginally the faster average across his lifetime of bike times, but it is clear that Yee has made improvements recently as their ‘form guide’ is almost exactly the same.”

Yee tried to drive it at the Test Event last year to put time between the front group and the rest but Wilde is a formidable opponent on two wheels. Honours even on this one.

Run: Yee 10/10, Wilde 9.5/10

Where the race will likely be won and lost and Acheson says: “Alex Yee sets the fastest times across the board here, the fastest single run, the fastest average overall and the fastest form average. This shows what we already know in some regards, but he came to the sport as a phenomenal runner, and has maintained that throughout.

“Wilde has clearly improved his running a lot, given his form average is only marginally behind Yee’s average time, but his overall average is a lot slower. He has managed to improve his 10k time by nearly two minutes since he joined the sport, a remarkable feat – but a necessary one to challenge Yee!”

Alex Yee romps to victory at the Olympic Games Paris Test Event in August 2023 [Photo credit: World Triathlon / Wagner Araujo]

Transitions: Yee 9/10, Wilde 10/10

Let’s not forget the fourth discipline – and these two are superb exponents of minimising time spent in T1 and T2.

There’s arguably no one better in the world than Wilde – and he’s also quick thinking approaching the transition area. Look back at WTCS Hamburg last year for example. It may have been a Super Sprint but after two days of eliminations it all came down to a mile run, with Wilde, Yee, Blummenfelt, Matt Hauser and Vasco Vilaca all bang in contention.

But a quite brilliant lead in to T2 from Wilde gave him what would prove a crucial race-winning gap.

Form leading into Paris: Yee 10/10, Wilde 9/10

Hard to fault either of them – and they’ve also had the well-earned luxury of knowing their spots were effectively booked a year out.

It’s meant they’ve been able to build everything towards 30 July and you have to give the nod for Yee for obvious reasons as he beat Wilde by a whole two seconds at WTCS Cagliari.

Photo Credit: Tommy Zaferes / World Triathlon

‘Every second counts’ as the Super League slogan used to go and both men have demonstrated their form recently with hit outs – and wins – at Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbuhel (Yee) and the Lindahls Pro+ Triathlon Series race in Bordeaux (Wilde).

Head-to-head: Yee 10/10, Wilde 8/10

That Cagliari race in many ways sums up most of the Olympic-distance battles between this pair when they are on top form – they invariably dominate the race and there’s little between them at the front, but it’s Yee who usually comes out on top.

But this is also the point to mention that they can both occasionally implode by their own high standards – it’s happened at the last two WTCS Grand Finals when world titles were on the line, arguably the last three if you look back to Edmonton in 2021.

Since Tokyo this is how they’ve shaped up in Olympic-distance races (Yee result first/Wilde second)…

2024

WTCS Cagliari – 1st/2nd

2023

WTCS Grand Final Pontevedra – 30th/10th

Paris Test Event – 1st/DNF (after bike fall previous day)

WTCS Cagliari – 1st/2nd

2022

WTCS Grand Final Abu Dhabi – 4th/6th

WTCS Yokohama 2022 – 1st/2nd

Alex Yee wins again at WTCS Cagliari [Photo Credit: Tommy Zaferes / World Triathlon]

Final verdict: Yee 55/60, Wilde 53.5/60

That last category has proved crucial in the scoring but what’s evident throughout is just how closely matched they are.

It’s been an absorbing – and respectful – rivalry already and there are hopefully many more chapters to come.

Races of course can be won in many different ways but their styles of racing actually have many similarities which makes them even harder to split. And the chances are that barring any mishaps there won’t be much between them at any point in Tuesday’s big dance which will be fascinating to watch.

Let’s just hope that this time, unlike their last big Games battle at the 2022 Commonwealths (over the sprint distance), it’s not a penalty that defines the race.

Our John Levison has brought his expertise to the party and taken on the tricky task of making his podium picks for the men’s race – and you can read that here.

More Paris 2024 Olympic Games Triathlon news, analysis and opinion.

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