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There are a lot of pitchers who could get traded this week, but the lone near certainty to be on the move at some point this offseason is Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow.
From the moment the Rays signed Glasnow to the two-year deal in which the salary for year No. 2 ($25 million) is nearly quintuple the first year ($5.35 million), it was always likely they would trade him away this offseason, as I don’t believe they have ever paid anyone a salary over $15 million.
Two questions linger in a possible Glasnow deal, with the obvious first one being: Where does he land?
Nearly every MLB team is in the market for starting pitching, but $25 million for one year of a guy who has yet to log more than 120 innings in a season in his eight-year career is quite the expensive gamble. If he does manage to stay healthy, though, Glasnow has a 3.03 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 12.5 K/9 dating back to the start of 2019 and could be a Cy Young candidate.
The Dodgers are probably most likely to make that gamble, but the Cubs and Yankees will also be in the mix, with the Reds looming as an intriguing dark horse. (Our official prediction is the Dodgers, who would clearly be in the market for a one-year stopgap starter if they do get Ohtani.)
The other question is: Are the Rays kind of going to punt away the 2024 season?
It was after six consecutive winning seasons from 2008-13 that they previously had little choice but to slog through a bit of a rebuild, and they are once again in a tough spot after six straight solid years.
Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are each recovering from major elbow surgery and will likely all be out until at least the All-Star break, if not the entire season. So if they were to trade away Glasnow, the rotation gets questionable in a hurry, with a lot riding on then-projected No. 3 starter Shane Baz, who has pitched all of 40.1 innings in his MLB career and is coming back from a Tommy John surgery of his own.
Throw in the uncertainty surrounding Wander Franco and the notion that the AL East might be even more loaded in 2024 than it already was in 2023, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if the Rays trade away more than just Glasnow.
It wouldn’t be a full-blown, Oakland A’s-level tank job by any means. Much more of a “retooling for a more plausible run in 2025” situation. But if they’re embracing some salary dump, might as well look to move Manuel Margot and Brandon Lowe, too—possibly even packaged in the Glasnow trade to increase the haul that they get for moving the potential ace.
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