It’s officially March Madness season.
The bracket for the 2024 NCAA men’s tournament was unveiled Selection Sunday.
The First Four will begin March 19, followed by the first round March 21.
Everything leads up to the NCAA championship game on Monday, April 8 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Below is the link to the NCAA’s printable bracket, which can serve a must-have reference as the tournament gets underway. Find more information, and all the details of the schedule, at NCAA.com.
NCAA March Madness @MarchMadnessMBB
The bracket 🙌 pic.twitter.com/X5pG3A8PlI
Sign up to play the NCAA March Madness Men’s Bracket Challenge, Tournament Run, and Conference Tournament Pick Em.
If you’re looking for data to back up your bracket decisions, there are a few resources you can look through. USA Today’s Jim Sergent did a deep dive into the success rates of brackets submitted between 1985 and 2021.
Sergent’s analysis shows where the predictive power of first-round seeding becomes limited. For example, a first-round No. 1 seed like UConn historically has a 99.3 percent chance of victory over a No. 16 opponent like Stetson, while No. 8 and No. 9 seeds (like Nebraska and Texas A&M) are almost equally likely to win their first-round battle.
Another resource to check out is analysis by Wayne Staats of NCAA.com of every Bracket Challenge Game winner between 2015 and 2023.
Staats points out that most brackets weigh later rounds more heavily, so crafting a likely Elite Eight package is likely a better use of your time than agonizing over every first-round upset.
Trust Seeding, To a Certain Extent
Although 12 of the last 16 March Madness champions have been top seeds, it’s likely the Final Four— and your bracket won’t be populated by all No. 1s.
The 2008 NCAA Tournament is the only time the four teams left were top seeds, so it’s unlikely that all four of Houston, Purdue, UConn and North Carolina are going to be sticking around for that national semifinals.
Top-four seeds are the most likely candidates to get past the Elite 8. Since 1984, No. 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four 60 times, while No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds have combined for 62 appearances, per Eric Vander Voort for NCAA.com. A high and debatably under-seeded team like Auburn could be a good bet to make it.
Andrew Weatherman @andreweatherman
Which teams are most under- or over-seeded relative to historic KenPom rating averages entering Selection Sunday?
UNDER===
1. Auburn (#4), +7.3
2. New Mexico (#11), +4.57
3. Longwood (#16), +4.52
OVER===
1. UAB (#12), -6.63
2. Wagner (#16), -6.53
3. Duquesne (#11), -5.0 pic.twitter.com/mHBF6j3WWC
To get an idea of how many unlikely winners you should be predicting this March Madness, check out Andy Wittry’s analysis for NCAA.com of upset data since 1985.
When defining “upset” as victory by a team at least five seeds below its opponent, Wittry reported an annual average of 8.5 upsets per men’s tournament.
These bracket-busting outcomes have become more common in the past decade. Wittry reports that at least 10 upsets occurred in nine of the past 12 NCAA Tournaments, including the last three straights.
Don’t be afraid to reach the double digits on your upset predictions. Take a look at No. 11 seeds like New Mexico (No. 22 in the NCAA’s NET rankings) playing a No. 6 seed in the first round. At least one 11th-seed has made it to the second round every NCAA tournament since 1985, per Joe Boozell of NCAA.com.
Whether it’s for an office pool or the official Bracket Challenge, make sure to pick your favorites and upsets before the tournament tips off March 19.
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