Early Sunday, it looked so promising for my picks. I was sweeping the six games at one point, leading me to believe I was destined for a good week.
Then I got coal in my stocking.
Some of the games went rotten, and it went bad from there. I ended up 6-10 against the spread and 10-6 straight up, neither of which is too impressive. That takes my ATS record to 116-113-11 and my straight-up record to 146-94.
There are two weeks left before the postseason to fix all that ails me. Like the teams, I need to sharpen up before the postseason begins.
New York Jets (+7) at Cleveland Browns
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
The Browns are rolling right now and Joe Flacco has them close to being in the playoffs. The Jets are playing out the string, although they did beat the Commanders last week after blowing a big lead. The Browns defense will cause all kinds of problems for whoever plays quarterback for the Jets. The Browns keep surging, but the Jets will keep it close.
Pick: Browns 22, Jets 21 (Result: Browns 37, Jets 20)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Cowboys have lost two straight, but they are in the playoffs. The Lions clinched the division last week, but are playing for seeding. Detroit is playing consecutive road games, while Dallas is home for the first time in three weeks. Look for the Cowboys to get back on track after two losses with an impressive game for both offense and the defense.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Lions 23
Miami Dolphins (+4) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week and could decide the top seed in the AFC and the MVP between Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have blown out a bunch of good teams, but that won’t be the case here. Miami will hang around in this one, but I think in the end the Ravens defense will be the difference with a late stop.
Pick: Ravens 28, Dolphins 27
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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-12)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are playing consecutive road games after beating the Broncos Sunday night. The Bills rallied to win last week against a bad Chargers team, so that will get them back focused again. Their playoff push continues as they handle the Patriots with a strong outing and get ready for Miami next week.
Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 14
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bears have come alive in recent weeks, serving notice they are a team to watch for next season. The Falcons are still alive in the playoff chase. This will be a tough task, though, against a team playing loose. Look for Justin Fields to outplay Taylor Heinicke to win it.
Pick: Bears 25, Falcons 19
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Titans might have Will Levis back for this one, while the Texans will have C.J. Stroud back as well. That would pit the two rookie quarterbacks against each other for the first time. The Texans beat the Titans two weeks ago with Case Keenum at quarterback. It was tight. This will be as well, no matter who plays quarterback for the Titans.
Pick: Texans 27, Titans 26
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Raiders are out on the road for a second straight week with slight playoff chances in play. The Colts need this for their playoff hopes. The Raiders defense is playing at a high level as we saw against the Chiefs Monday. I think that will continue here against Gardner Minshew as they pull off the upset.
Pick: Raiders 23, Colts 15
Carolina Panthers (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars have lost four straight games and have looked awful in doing so. But Carolina isn’t a good team, although Bryce Young was better last week. The health of Trevor Lawrence is key here. But even if he doesn’t play, the Jaguars will win this one to stay atop the AFC South standings.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Panthers 20
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Rams are streaking to the playoffs as Matt Stafford plays at a high level again. The Giants have offensive issues, but the defense will keep them in this game. The blitz looks will slow Stafford some, but the Rams will still find a way to win it.
Pick: Rams 23, Giants 20
Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Eagles haven’t looked crisp all season, but the Cardinals are playing consecutive road games and they had issues stopping the Chicago offense last week. Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon came from the Eagles, where he was defensive coordinator, so he knows them well. But I don’t think it matters. Eagles take it, but Arizona will get its points, too.
Pick: Eagles 33, Cardinals 27
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bucs have won four straight behind Baker Mayfield, but they have had troubles with the Saints in their recent history at home, losing four of five in their stadium. The Saints will be rested after playing last Thursday, but they didn’t play well in the loss to the Rams. I don’t think they turn it around here. Bucs keep rolling.
Pick: Bucs 27, Saints 17
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The 49ers are coming off a blowout loss Monday night to the Ravens, so they are on a long trip on a short week. It won’t matter. The 49ers will get back refocused as their defensive line comes up big against a bad Commanders offensive line.
Pick: 49ers 34, Commanders 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a playoff game of sorts for these two. The Seahawks are coming off a nice comeback victory over the Titans, while the Steelers handled the Bengals in Mason Rudolph’s first start. This will be a lot tougher on the road for Rudolph, but the Steelers will hang around. In the end, I think Geno Smith will make enough plays to win it late for Seattle like he did last week’s game.
Pick: Seahawks 29, Steelers 27
Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chargers showed some life last week with interim coach Giff Smith in their close loss to the Bills. The Broncos lost a game to New England they had to win. They are still alive, but need to win the last two to have a chance. They will get this one, but it’s not going to be easy.
Pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs have issues on offense, which they have to get fixed in the next two weeks before the playoffs. The Bengals are still alive, but barely. The Cincinnati defense had issues with Mason Rudolph at times last week, so maybe this will be a game to get Patrick Mahomes going. I think the Chiefs win, but the Bengals keep it close.
Pick: Chiefs 26, Bengals 23
Green Bay Packers (+2) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Both teams need this to stay alive in the playoff race. The Packers are playing consecutive road games, which is a challenge. But I think Jordan Love and the Packers passing game can have success here against a Minnesota defense that has struggled lately. And Nick Mullens is shaky at best.
Pick: Packers 30, Vikings 25
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