Long-Term Contracts: Bryce Harper (thru 2031), Trea Turner (thru 2033), Aaron Nola (thru 2030)
Controllable Assets: Cristopher Sánchez, Johan Rojas, Orion Kerkering, Kody Clemens
Top 100 Prospects: RHP Andrew Painter (23), SS Aidan Miller (40), RHP Mick Abel (55), OF Justin Crawford (58), SS Starlyn Caba (81)
Average 2021-24 Opening Day Payroll: $226.3 million (4th of 30)
The big question with the Phillies’ five-year outlook is how well that core of long-term contracts holds up into its mid-30s.
This was also the big question when they were on top of the NL East in the 2008-11 timeframe—before they got old, bottomed out and missed the postseason for a decade straight.
Maybe they’ll manage things differently this time around, though. Better yet, maybe Harper and Turner will age more gracefully than Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins did.
One thing’s for sure, though: This team is great right now, and it should be in fantastic shape next season, too, with only Jeff Hoffman and Spencer Turnbull hitting free agency this winter.
Beyond that, we shall see.
They’re slated to lose J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez after 2025, Alec Bohm, Taijuan Walker, José Alvarado and Nick Castellanos after 2026 and Zack Wheeler, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh after 2027—at which point Harper, Turner and Nola will all be entering their age-35 seasons with several expensive years left on each contract.
The Phillies have solid prospects, though, and repurposing the $20 million-ish salaries that each of Realmuto, Schwarber, Walker and Castellanos is receiving could be massive.
The Mets have shown in recent years that a willingness to spend big doesn’t necessarily translate to wins, but it’s reasonable to assume Philadelphia’s ability to spend will help it remain an annual contender.
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