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The Raptors host the Western Conference-leading Thunder at Scotiabank on Friday (7:00 p.m. ET/Sportsnet), in a battle of squads heading in polar-opposite situations. Toronto enters this game as a big home underdog, but we have identified multiple value betting opportunities for you to cash in on.
As the TSN broadcasting crew said on Wednesday night, “Mama said there’d be days like this.” The Raptors have stacked up key injuries, lost eight games in a row and 10 of their past 11 and they just got demolished by Domantas Sabonis and the Kings 123-89.
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Things could go from bad to worse with Toronto native and undisputed MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rolling into town with his 48-20 Thunder. OKC has gone 11-3 since the All-Star break, and everything seems to be clicking for Mark Daigneault’s squad.
Can Toronto make this one interesting? Or, will Oklahoma City blow the doors off the undermanned Raptors like Sacramento did two days ago? Let’s dive into the BetMGM odds and best bets for this interconference clash.
Raptors vs. Thunder prediction, player props, best bets against the spread and moneyline
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
ATS: Thunder -15.5 (-110) | Raptors +15.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -1400 | Raptors +800
Over/under: O 230.5 (-105) | U 230.5 (-115)
No surprises here. The undermanned Raptors have gone just 13-21 straight up and against the spread at home, while the Thunder have gone an impressive 20-13 SU on the road. OKC has the third-best scoring offense in the NBA (120.7 PPG) and averages the fourth-most road points per game (118.6). Only three teams average fewer points at home than Toronto’s 110.3.
The struggle has only worsened for the Raps over the past month. With All-Star Scottie Barnes (hand), big man Jakob Poeltl (pinky), R.J. Barrett (bereavement) and Immanuel Quickley (person) all sidelined or away from the team, Toronto has had trouble keeping its offense above water.
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Raptors vs. Thunder predictions, best bets
Two days ago, we told our readers to smash-bet the visiting Kings -11.5 in Toronto, and also to bet the UNDER (230.5). Sacramento made us look good, pounding the undermanned Raps by 123-89. We’re going back to the gift that keeps on giving today, betting against Darko Rajaković’s squad like it’s a Nike clearance sale.
A 13-point win is not a lot to ask for here, considering the Thunder enter the weekend relatively healthy and the Raptors will be missing four of their main rotational cogs. Over the past two weeks, OKC has beat the Grizzlies by 31, the Mavs by seven, and most recently the Jazz by 12. They’ve also pulled off road wins by 13 or more twice since Feb. 13, with a 13-point victory in Houston and a 14-point win in Orlando.
The Raps, meanwhile, have gone just 2-9 against the spread over their past 11 games. They’re not just losing — they’re getting dismantled on a regular basis. With no real offensive leader, it has basically looked like a bunch of supporting characters trying to be lead actors (we’d better end this paragraph before I drop an “Oppenheimer” reference!).
SGA’s coming to the 905 to play his hometown squad, he’s firmly entrenched in an MVP battle with Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards, and the Thunder have a narrow lead over Ant’s Wolves and Joker’s Nuggets. OKC won’t leave much to chance here — this squad will be gunning for the commanding dub coming off an off-day Thursday and with another day off on Saturday. Plus, Daigneault will want his guys to stay sharp ahead of a huge Sunday tilt in Milwaukee.
With no Barnes, Poeltl, Barrett, or Quickley, the Thunder rumble through Jurassic Park and rip the Raptors even worse than the Kings did. OKC is too strong on both ends of the court, SGA and Jalen Williams controlling the perimeter, Chet Holmgren dominating the interior, and every other piece on this squad knowing its role and identity.
What Daigneault has now is what Darko wants his team to eventually be. But that’s a ways away, while OKC’s days of contending for a title have already arrived.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 123, Raptors 105 — The Kings win (-1400) and cover (-15.5), and the score finishes just UNDER the projected total (230.5).
Raptors vs. Thunder top player prop bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points — OVER 30.5 (-105)
SGA dropped 29 the last time he visited his hometown squad, and 26 the time before that. Something tells us he will be looking to go off against the Raps this evening, with a chance to move closer to the scoring title and/or the MVP trophy.
The Raptors and the Bucks are the only two teams SGA has not dropped 30 points on, so look for the Toronto native to go off and leave the Raptors in even more dismay than the Kings left them in on Wednesday.
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