RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Bundesliga match

An early-season clash between Bundesliga title contenders sees defending champions Bayern Munich travel to RB Leipzig on Saturday.

Bayern lead the league with 13 points from five matches, level with Bayer Leverkusen but ahead on goal differential.

Their draw with the aforementioned Leverkusen remains their only blemish of the season, and they have rebounded nicely from that result, topping Manchester United in the Champions League before stomping Bochum 7-0 in league play and slamming Preussen Munster 4-0 in the DFB-Pokal.

Yet RB Leipzig are only a point back amongst a crowded top half, with their early-season defeat to Leverkusen their only negative result. Victory here would see them climb above Bayern and perhaps underline their title credentials.

Leipzig hammered Bayern 3-0 in the season-opening DFL-Supercup, leaving Bayern looking for revenge just six weeks later. They will be hoping that Harry Kane, who made his debut off the bench in that match, will continue his sensational form for his new club.

MORE: Tracking all of Harry Kane’s goals in his first season with Bayern Munich

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich match facts

Date: Saturday, September 30
Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. local (12:30 p.m. ET / 9:30 a.m. PT)
Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig, Germany)
Official: TBD
Last meeting: Bayern Munich 0-3 RB Leipzig (Aug. 12, 2023 | DFL Super Cup)

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich prediction, odds

Moneyline lean: Bayern Munich (-105)
Score prediction: RB Leipzig 1-2 Bayern Munich

RB Leipzig are poised to challenge for a Champions League place, but there are signs that they do not quite boast the caliber required to be title contenders.

The hosts have scored their 14 goals this season from just 6.3 xG (expected goals) and 8.16 xGOT (expected goals on target), suggesting that while they finish at a very high level, they should regress closer to the mean.

Most notably, their joint-top scorer Xavi Simons has scored three goals on just 0.78 xG and 0.85 xGOT, indicating that while he is clearly vital to the squad, his return has been strongly inflated by poor goalkeeping. Extend that to his four assists on just 0.87 xA, and it’s clear this attack may not prove as potent across a larger sample size or against better opponents.

RB Leipzig
win
Draw
Bayern
win
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
3.5 goals
FCB
-0.5
RBL
+0.5

BetMGM
(USA)
+230
+300
-105
-250 / +175
-105 / -130
-115
-125

In Canada, bet Bundesliga at Sports Interaction: See the latest odds for RB Leipzig vs. Bayern here

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich: best bet

Pick: Bayern Munich over 5.5 corners
Odds: +115 (BetMGM)

While RB Leipzig do well to defend throughout matches, conceding few high-quality chances, they are happy to oblige when opponents push vertically for corners. Against Bayern, the Bundesliga leader in corners earned (46, 11 more than any other club), that should play into the hands of the visitors.

Even in victory, RB Leipzig are happy to concede set-pieces, coughing up 11 corners in their recent 1-0 win at Borussia Monchengladbach and giving away six at home to 12th-placed Augsburg in a 3-0 win at home. Bayern earned nine corners in the DFL-Supercup earlier this year and grabbed seven in the 3-1 loss last time these teams met in league play.

Bayern have gone over 5.5 corners in every single match this season across all competitions, and there’s no indication that will change here regardless of the result.

RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich prop bet

Pick: Under 3.5 goals
Odds: -130 (BetMGM)

These two teams have been known to contest high-scoring affairs, but there are reasons to suggest this will not be one of them.

Most notably, while RB Leipzig’s attack may be fool’s gold, as suggested above, their defensive capabilities are for real. They have conceded just four goals on 5.21 xGA (expected goals against), both second-best in the German top flight. Matching that is the Bayern back line, who, despite significant injuries, have also conceded four goals on 4.11 xGA. Goals in this match will prove well-earned.

Additionally, injuries have taken a toll on both sides up front. Timo Werner has been missing from the RB Leipzig attack for a number of weeks with a back injury, while Dani Olmo has not been available since earlier this month. Meanwhile, Bayern recently lost Serge Gnabry to a broken arm after he looked bright in the draw with Leverkusen.