SEATTLE — The second half of the season starts Friday, and there is so much yet that has to unfold before the final story of the 2023 season is written.
One thing — well, two things — seems almost wrapped up at this point, though. If you’ve been paying attention, this probably won’t surprise you. Both MVP races have overwhelming favorites: Ronald Acuña Jr. in the National League and Shohei Ohtani in the AL.
Over at BetMGM, Ohtani has -750 odds to win the AL MVP, Corey Seager is second, at +1600. Acuña’s the favorite, at -350, with Mookie Betts second, at +600. Translated for those non-bettors: They’re both massive, overwhelming, humongous favorites.
David faced better odds vs. Goliath over at BetBC, folks.
ICYMI: Ronald Acuña Jr. is better than ever. How much better could he get?
The two favorites don’t have to finish strong to wrap up the award. Heck, they probably don’t even have to finish to get there. That’s how good they’ve been. Remember when Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP award in 2010? Hamilton hit 33 home runs, to go with 100 RBIs, an 8.7 bWAR and 170 OPS+. He played a total of three games after Sept. 4, and still was the runaway winner, receiving 22 of the 28 first-place votes.
That’s the type of scenario we’re looking at here, for both players.
Acuña made it clear from the opening days of the season that he was on a mission to prove that, after a couple of injury-shortened seasons, he belonged among the inner circle of baseball’s elite players. And he has not let up.
Acuña leads the NL in stolen bases (41) and OPS (.990), which is not a common combination. He also leads in runs scored (79), OPS+ (162) and total bases (209) and a 5.0 bWAR, to go with his .331 average and .408 on-base percentage. His on-pace numbers are ridiculous: 144 runs scored, 46 doubles, 38 homers, 75 stolen bases and 9.1 bWAR.
Maybe most impressive thing about this particular season? Heading into 2023, Acuña had only 261 walks and 582 strikeouts. This year, he’s gotten that number down to almost a 1-to-1 ratio, with 44 walks and 49 strikeouts.
“We knew it was gonna be this good years ago,” Dodgers catcher Will Smith said. “He’s going out every night, putting up numbers. It’s incredible. He’s having a great year. Great player.”
He paused and smiled.
“I’m just glad we only have to play him six games a year.”
And Ohtani? What else can you say about him. The Mariners fans at the All-Star Game had their say on Tuesday, chanting “Come to Seattle!” with vigor and enthusiasm typically only shown to their beloved Seattle favorites. Ohtani noticed.
“Never experienced anything like that,” Ohtani said though an interpreter after he left the game.
And here’s what AL manager Dusty Baker — a baseball lifer — said about Ohtani before the Home Run Derby on Monday: “He’s the most incredible athlete I’ve ever seen in baseball. I’ve seen some great players, but I mean none that can both run like the wind, throw a hundred miles an hour and hit as well as anybody in the game.”
Ohtani leads the majors in homers (32), triples (six), OPS+ (180) and slugging (.663), and his 4.0 bWAR as a DH is bested by only two position players in the AL — Wander Franco (4.3) and Luis Robert Jr. (4.1). But when you add in his bWAR as a pitcher? His total of 6.5 blows away the field.
Here’s the real question: If the Angels do decide to trade Ohtani by the Aug. 1 deadline — and they absolutely should, for so many reasons — and they trade him to an NL team, could he still win the AL MVP award?
MORE: The Angels have failed Shohei Ohtani. They shouldn’t fail their fans too.
It sounds silly, but it’s really not. A total of 13 times since the 2000 season, either the AL or NL award has gone to a player with a bWAR of 7.3 or lower. That’s absolutely a reachable number for Ohtani, with a couple of more weeks before the trade deadline. In 2021, Bryce Harper won the NL award with a 5.9 bWAR in 141 games.
He’s been that good, folks. That scenario is unlikely to happen, of course, but the fact that it’s not impossible shows how very good he’s been this year.
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