Shohei Ohtani’s next contract is one of the most difficult things to predict in recent memory in the sports world.
The idea of figuring out how to value a player who has been one of the best hitters and pitchers in baseball and is likely heading toward a his second American League MVP award is dizzying. Some tea-leaf diviners have tried to divide the contract between pitcher Ohtani and hitter Ohtani, with the obvious caveat that the team that lands him would need just one roster spot.
Ohtani is already playing on the biggest one-year contract for an arbitration-eligible player in MLB history, at $30 million this season. Him becoming the highest-paid player in MLB history is almost an inevitability. The last formality is to figure out by how much.
The other question, of course, is where Ohtani will land. He chose the Angels in 2018, but although his personal tenure has been otherworldly, the team’s results have been anything but. LA hasn’t made the playoffs with him, and the front office led by owner Arte Moreno has floundered while trying to build around him and fellow all-world player Mike Trout.
MORE: Angels GM indicates team unlikely to deal Ohtani before trade deadline, free agency
The Dodgers and Mets are frequently in Ohtani rumors; they’re the two teams most likely to break out the checkbook, however much money it may require to sign him. But the Angels are playing well this season and emerging as a contender to retain him.
Here’s what to know about Ohtani’s future with the Angels, including what he’s making now and what he could make in the future.
Shohei Ohtani contract details
In his final year of salary arbitration eligibility, Ohtani is playing on a one-year, $30 million contract with the Angels.
That’s the largest sum an arbitration-eligible player has made in MLB history, surpassing Dodgers star Mookie Betts’ $27 million salary in 2020.
Ohtani’s career earnings in MLB are now $42.27 million. His previous highest salary was $5.5 million in 2022.
Will Shohei Ohtani be traded?
The short answer is it would be almost impossible that Ohtani will be traded.
Because the Angels are contending for a playoff spot and hoping to convince Ohtani to stay with the team beyond this year, it’s hard to fathom a scenario in which he is dealt before the Aug. 1 deadline.
On top of that, it’s difficult to fathom the package it would require to add Ohtani, even if only for half a season. The Padres gave up MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit for 2.5 years of Juan Soto last year. Ohtani would command at least a comparable package and likely more, and he will reach free agency after the season.
FAGAN: If the Angels aren’t trading Shohei Ohtani, roster upgrades are critical
It’s difficult to imagine a contender with the prospect capital to get that deal done. The Dodgers could make it work if they were willing to pony up their top prospects, and they’ve been known to deal top assets for elite talent (see: Max Scherzer and Trea Turner). But it makes much more sense for the Angels to make a playoff run and see where it leads.
How much does Shohei Ohtani make in endorsements?
Ohtani is an all-world star, which means that, on top of his contract, he is making serious endorsement money.
Sportico claims Ohtani makes $40 million in endorsements in 2023, blowing away his MLB compatriots (Trout is second at $5 million). Between his contract this year and those reported endorsements, Ohtani is up to $70 million total this year.
Trout implied recently on the “Foul Territory” podcast that the endorsement money could also mean that Ohtanin won’t chase the biggest contract as a free agent.
“I don’t think it’s about the money, man,” Trout said. “I think if we can win, he’s making all this money off the field, so . . . I think ultimately it comes down to he just wants to win and have some fun.”
MORE: How many homers is Shohei Ohtani on pace to hit in 2023?
Trout’s statement, of course, is conjecture.
MLB fans likely know by now that Ohtani is tied to New Balance as a featured athlete. Among his other endorsements are Fanatics, ASICS, Hugo Boss, New Era, Oakley, Topps, Seiko, Panini and Porsche Japan, per Sportskeeda. There are also sponsorships with Japan Airlines and Nishikawa Co.
Shohei Ohtani contract projection
Again, to project Ohtani’s next contract is a fool’s errand. His potential to help a team is limitless. The dollar amount depends strictly on how high a front office is willing to go.
It’s almost a certainty that the total will be higher than the $426.5 million Trout is being paid in his deal, the current largest MLB contract by total dollars.
Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser claimed that a senior MLB executive said in June that Glaser’s speculation of $550 million was “too low.” That would mean the bidding is starting remarkably high.
Last week, I casually posited 11 years, $550 million for Shohei Ohtani in free agency to a senior front office official.
His response?
“You’re too low.”
— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) June 28, 2023
One agent speculated to the Los Angeles Times that the contract could go to 12 years and $600 million ($50 million average annual value).
MORE: Shohei Ohtani ends June with a 493-foot HR that ties an AL record
The unspoken issue with a unicorn like Ohtani — who will turn 29 on July 5 — is the risk of injury for a two-way player on a long-term contract. Any team that signs him would incur massive risk, and a contract the size of Ohtani’s would be difficult to insure (recent examples of teams waiving insurance are the Nationals with Stephen Strasburg and the Rangers with Jacob deGrom).
While teams don’t like to think about worst-case scenarios with injuries, they would, it seems, have to consider them in this case.
Ohtani will get a huge payday, and he’ll continue to be well-paid off the field as well. Where he plays next season and beyond will be the most compelling question for the rest of this season.
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