Shohei Ohtani is (somehow) still getting better

As a baseball world collective, we’ve come to a pretty universal understanding regarding the greatness of Shohei Ohtani: It’s indisputable. It’s as close to an objective truth as the game of baseball will allow. After six years, we can attach whatever “all-time” moniker we want to, and it wouldn’t seem at all out of place. 

And yet, as impossible as it seems, it appears as if there was another level to Ohtani’s offensive game. A wild concept for someone who is roughly a .280 career hitter and has a career ISO even higher. 

A 2023 elbow injury necessitated a move to DH full-time for the 2024 season. While it postpones the debut of his two-way stardom in Dodger blue, it has, however, allowed Ohtani to refine one side of his craft to an even further extent. 

Context matters, though, in the discussion of what constitutes “another level” in Ohtani’s offensive production. In ruling the leaderboards, the 2023 season was actually Ohtani’s most productive as a hitter. He slashed .304/.412/.654/1.066, hit 44 home runs, and ISO’d an obscene .350. His overall wRC+ of 180 and OPS+ of 184 both reigned atop all qualified hitters. 

That trend, in itself, is not unique to 2023. Ohtani is once again atop the leaderboard in ISO (.322), wRC+ (219), and OPS+ (220). He’s 100th percentile in expected average, expected on-base, Barrel%, and hard hit rate. He’s 99th in average exit velocity. But the thought that should terrify opposing pitchers is in the underlying component where Ohtani continues to improve: his approach. 

As good as he is overall, Ohtani has been prone to bouts of poor plate discipline. His career strikeout rate is touching about 26 percent. He’s whiffed at 13.3 percent of pitches for his career and hacked at pitches outside the strike zone at a nearly 32 percent clip. No hitter’s perfect, and even someone like Ohtani proved to be beatable from time to time. 

There’s a marked change in 2024, however. There’s a slight swing rate decline from the last couple of seasons, but his O-Swing% is down much more notably than the broad figure (25.8 percent). His contact rate has shot up to 78.5 percent, which would represent the highest single-season rate of his career. He was a shade over 70 last year.

It’s not only about zone awareness, though. Ohtani is pursuing specific pitch types. Breaking pitches have represented a high source of whiff, with that pitch representing the highest Whiff% of any of the three main groups in each of the last three years. He was also prone to swinging at them with regularity; breaking pitches were his highest Swing% in 2022 and just about even with offspeed as his highest in 2023. 

This year, though, has seen a sharp decline in his pursuit of breaking pitches. He’s cut his Swing% against that pitch by almost 10 percent, down to 41.5. He’s dropped the chase rate on the pitch by even more (down to under 20 percent). With that, Ohtani has not only been able to drive up the contact rate, but cut the whiff rate. He’s under 10 percent for the year. The lowest Whiff% of his career was 12.3 back in 2019.

It must be a tough thought for opposing pitchers. Here you have one of the most prolific hitters of the last several decades. He possesses massive power. And yet, he’s been able to refine his game even further and make himself more of a threat with an improved approach and, subsequently, more contact. Showcasing the power with such regularity is exciting; becoming a dangerously well-rounded hitter, though, only adds to the Shohei Ohtani mythos.  

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