The Blueprint for Dak Prescott to Win MVP over Jalen Hurts, Other Top QBs Is Clear

Cowboys QB Dak PrescottRon Jenkins/Getty Images

The Dallas Cowboys managed to outlast the Seattle Seahawks 41-35 on Thursday night, but it wasn’t easy. Seattle had an eight-point lead and all of the momentum before some key defensive plays and another terrific performance by quarterback Dak Prescott.

For the first time since beating the 1-0 New York Jets in Week 2, the Cowboys beat a team with a winning record, and they couldn’t have done it without Prescott, who finished 29-of-40 for 299 yards, three touchdowns and 23 rushing yards.

Prescott is now a serious contender to be named the league’s 2023 MVP. The path to winning it isn’t exactly easy, though, and there are a few reasons why.

Let’s start by examining Prescott’s resume. Keeping him out of serious MVP consideration to this point has been Dallas’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams. However, the 30-year-old is putting up MVP-caliber numbers.

Coming into Thursday, Prescott had thrown for 2,935 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 70 percent of his passes and posting a 107.4 passer rating. While those numbers are already impressive, Prescott has been even better since Dallas’ Week 5 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell

Dak Prescott has an 80.7 QBR since Week 6.

Nobody else is over 68.

He’s been comfortably the best quarterback in football for half a season now.

Field Yates @FieldYates

Dak Prescott has 19 touchdown passes over the last 5+ games.

Only 5 quarterbacks have thrown for more touchdown passes this entire season.

For as great as Prescott has been, though, the most impressive part is that he’s had to overcome some of the Cowboys’ weaknesses.

While Dallas’ defense has been impressive statistically this season, it has been suspect at times. Yes, the Cowboys came into Thursday ranked third in yards allowed and fourth in points allowed. However, as previously pointed out, the Cowboys have spent much of the year picking on sub-.500 teams.

In losses to the 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals, the defense surrendered an average of 371 yards and 32.6 points. The defense certainly didn’t look good against Seattle before DaRon Bland’s third-quarter interception and a trio of fourth-quarter fourth-down stops.

Bland, who rightfully gained a lot of attention last week for snagging an NFL-record fifth pick-six, gained the wrong kind of attention before the pick for getting picked on by Geno Smith and Seattle’s receivers.

Bleacher Report @BleacherReport

Rough first half for DaRon Bland. pic.twitter.com/tyapFe2ATv

Dallas’ offensive line, while dependable in pass protection over the past few weeks, hasn’t been great overall. It has struggled to open holes in the ground game, and it has been downright bullied at times.

The Eagles and 49ers combined to sack Prescott eight times. Seattle got to Prescott four times, and he was often forced to scramble to avoid pressure.

The Cowboys rushing attack, long a strong point during the heyday of Ezekiel Elliott, has often underwhelmed. Dallas came in averaging just 4.1 yards per carry, ranked 19th in the NFL.

Starting back Tony Pollard averaged just 3.4 yards per carry against a Seattle defense that had allowed an average of 4.2.

On top of everything else, Dallas has been one of the league’s most mistake-prone teams. After Week 12, the Cowboys were tied with Seattle for the most penalties against in the NFC with 81. Dallas was flagged nine times for 127 yards against the Seahawks.

Oh, and the Cowboys had to learn a new offense this season when head coach Mike McCarthy replaced the departed Kellen Moore as the play-caller in the offseason. These are all arguments for Prescott being considered the league’s “most valuable,” even if he does benefit from having a premier No. 1 receiver in CeeDee Lamb.

Guess who else has elite top targets in their supporting casts—MVP front-runners Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.

Before Week 13, Prescott was right behind Hurts, Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in the MVP odds, according to DraftKings:

Jalen Hurts +155 (bet $100 to win $155)Patrick Mahomes +350Lamar Jackson +450Dak Prescott +500Tua Tagovailoa +900Brock Purdy +1300

Hurts has the advantage of playing behind a great offensive line that helps spearhead the league’s eighth-ranked rushing attack, while Mahomes and Jackson have benefited from defenses that have been more consistent than Dallas’.

One could argue that Prescott has been more valuable to his team than Hurts, Jackson or Mahomes has been to his respective team, but jumping all of them to win the MVP award won’t be easy.

The blueprint for doing it, however, is fairly simple, even if it’s not entirely in his control.

It starts with continuing to play at a high level and beating Hurts in next week’s head-to-head rematch. That would essentially draw Prescott even with the front-runner, whose numbers are down from last season.

Hurts has already thrown more interceptions this year (10) than he did all of last season. His passer rating is down from 101.5 to 94.9, and he’s averaging a full yard per carry less than he did in 2022—though with 11 rushing touchdowns, Hurts is closing in on Cam Newton’s single-season record (14) for a quarterback.

The next step will be to continue winning against above-average teams and do it on the road. The other knock against Prescott and the Cowboys is their 3-3 record away from AT&T Stadium.

Prescott will have all the opportunities he needs. Dallas’ remaining schedule is versus Philadelphia, at the Buffalo Bills, at the Miami Dolphins, versus the Detroit Lions and at the Washington Commanders. Only Washington is currently below. 500.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen may no longer be among the MVP favorites, but Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is. Beating those two high-profile passers in back-to-back weeks after taking out Hurts and the Eagles would be huge.

It will certainly help if Prescott can record a signature moment, like Hurts’ walk-off overtime touchdown against Buffalo last week:

Bleacher Report @BleacherReport

JALEN HURTS FOR THE WIN 🤯

WHAT. A. GAME.

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/YdKrSWKFFj

If Prescott can do that, and the Cowboys can finish 14-3, it could be hard not to bump him above Hurts, Mahomes and Jackson. Mahomes’ numbers are down from last season too, and he’s struggled to find a dependable receiver not named Travis Kelce. Jackson has been fantastic, but he lost top target Mark Andrews to a season-ending ankle injury in Week 11.

But Prescott can’t win his final five games by himself, no matter how great he’s playing. Dallas must support him by minimizing mistakes, playing more consistently on defense, running the ball better and giving Prescott time in the pocket.

Even if all of that happens, Prescott could still need help. San Francisco’s Brock Purdy lurks as a dark horse, despite leading the league in completion percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (9.4), passer rating (112.3) and QBR (75.6). He already has a head-to-head win over Prescott and will face both Hurts and Jackson over the next six weeks.

Yet the MVP is very much in reach for Prescott, but he’s going to need his teammates to start playing up to the level he’s been at since mid-October.

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