We’ve seen big point spreads with the Detroit Lions’ game on Thanksgiving before. It’s not usually the Lions who are big favorites.
The Lions are not only favored on Thanksgiving for the first time since 2016, according to the Action Network, they’re favored by 7.5 points over the Green Bay Packers. It’s going to take some time to get used to watching a top-five Lions team on Thanksgiving.
The Lions’ spread fits with the rest of the Thanksgiving games this season. All three games Thursday have a favorite of at least a touchdown at BetMGM. Hopefully we get better matchups than the odds indicate.
Packers (+7.5) over Lions
The last time these teams played, the Packers got crushed. It was the Thursday night game of Week 4, and the Lions took a 27-3 lead on their way to a 34-20 win. Detroit outplayed Green Bay in every way.
This Packers team has a little momentum, however. Jordan Love is coming off his two biggest games, in terms of passing yardage, and last Sunday was the best game of his career. He had 322 yards in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Losing Aaron Jones hurts, but the Packers look like a better team lately. And they remember how they were embarrassed last time.
This could turn ugly — Lions fans will be fired up for a Thanksgiving game with their best team in decades — but I’m going to trust the Packers to make a game of this.
Commanders (+12.5) over Cowboys
I always lean to double-digit underdogs in the NFL but this one was tough. The Cowboys are passing it more, and the Commanders simply can’t stop that. Tommy DeVito torched Washington last week, so what’s Dak Prescott going to do? Prescott might be one huge game from “Is Dak a real MVP candidate?” becoming a thing as well. It’s possible last week’s Commanders loss to the New York Giants was a tipping point for that team; it will be interesting to see how hard they play to save Ron Rivera’s job.
And yet, it’s still 12.5 points with a Commanders team that isn’t incapable on offense. Sam Howell is the only NFL quarterback with more than 3,000 yards passing already this season. Unlike other big favorites who fall behind too much and have no shot of rallying to cover the spread, the backdoor will be open for the Commanders.
49ers (-7) over Seahawks
I’d like to take a good home underdog getting a touchdown. However, I keep thinking back to last season’s meetings between these teams.
Seattle lost by 20, 8 and 18 to the 49ers and in that 21-13 loss, the Seahawks trailed 21-3 and were never in the game. Now Seattle comes in with top running back Kenneth Walker III likely out and Geno Smith’s right arm banged up.
San Francisco had that three-game losing streak earlier this season, but none of the losses was terrible. When the 49ers are right, they look like the best team in football. They have looked very good in the two games since their bye. If Seattle was healthy and had a full week I might take the Seahawks, but this is a tough spot for them against a team they didn’t match up well against last season.
Here is the rest of the sports betting slate for Thursday:
Don’t forget the Egg Bowl
The annual Ole Miss-Mississippi State game isn’t expected to be that close. Ole Miss, ranked 12th in the AP poll, is 9-2 and a 10-point favorite at 5-6 Mississippi State. But rivalry games can bring out the best in underdogs. Mississippi State won the Egg Bowl showdown 24-22 last season.
A lot of college basketball
We’ll get some good early season tournament college basketball action amid all the football. The Battle 4 Atlantis semifinals are a highlight.
The best game of the day will take place in Palm Springs, as Michigan State faces Arizona. Arizona has the best win of any team this season, a true road win at Duke. Michigan State was considered a title contender coming into the season, but losses to James Madison and Duke have knocked the Spartans back a bit. Arizona opened as a 3.5-point favorite.
There are other fun matchups like Oklahoma-Iowa, VCU-Iowa State and Seton Hall-USC if Thanksgiving basketball is your thing.
What’s the best bet?
If these three NFL games were happening on a Sunday, I’d probably pass on them all. I probably like the Packers best among the sides. For the top pick, I do like Arizona a lot against a Michigan State team that seems a little overrated. Whatever games you enjoy on Thursday, have a great Thanksgiving.
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