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Justin Gaethje celebrates with the BMF title.Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Get your popcorn ready. This is a fight fans have marked on their calendar since the moment it was announced.
Is it peculiar booking given Max Holloway’s featherweight background? Sure, but there’s no denying a banger when you see one. These are two fighters who love to put on a show. When UFC books guys like that at lightweight, fireworks ensue.
I worry that Holloway won’t be able to keep up with the volume Justin Gaethje brings. Also consider the power he’s giving up moving to a heavier weight class and this spells trouble for the future Hall of Famer. “Blessed” will go down, but not without a fight.
Prediction: Gaethje by unanimous decision
I get why they made the fight. I get why Holloway would want it. But I have a hard time believing he wins it. Do I think he’s more skilled, pound for pound, than Gaethje? Yes. But the weight classes matter, and it’s hard to see him not getting busted up.
Prediction: Gaethje by unanimous decision
I’m one of the only people on Earth who isn’t totally gaga over this fight, and while that’s partly due to the fact that I think the BMF title is impossibly stupid, it’s mainly because I’m worried Holloway will be on the receiving end of the kind of beatdown Gaethje gave Tony Ferguson in 2020.
There are two reasons I’m afraid this will happen. The first is that the last time Holloway moved up to lightweight, he was beaten up by a bigger, stronger fighter in Dustin Poirier. The second is that, like Ferguson, he is tough to a fault, meaning he will probably be able to withstand a ton of punishment from Gaethje, which may earn him some applause in the moment but will be devastating for his long-term well-being.
I really hope I’m wrong. I hope Holloway somehow pulls this off. If that doesn’t happen, I hope Gaethje puts him away quickly and cleanly. But the truth is that I see Gaethje landing huge shots for rounds on end, and Holloway eating them all—to his detriment.
If the Fight Gods are feeling merciful, the referee will intervene before five rounds are up, but I don’t see it happening.
Prediction: Gaethje by unanimous decision
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