MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 240.
UFC Fight Night 240 (ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Last event’s results: 1-5
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 22-25-2
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Trevor Peek (+184) vs. Charlie Campbell (-184)
Kicking off the main card is a proper lightweight action fight between Trevor Peek and Charlie Campbell.
Although Campbell is clearly the more skilled fighter, it’s hard to ignore the intangibles that Peek brings to the table.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Campbell pull away down the stretch, but I suspect that the smaller octagon will give a slight edge to Peek, given the chaos it encourages.
Add in the disparity in the durability department, and I’ll take a reluctant flier on Peek to win by knockout in Round 2.
Lukasz Brzeski (+210) vs. Valter Walker (-265)
Death, taxes, and the UFC matchmakers force-feeding us low-level heavyweights on Fight Night cards.
This week, they’re serving up a showdown between big boys, Lukasz Brzeski and Valter Walker.
Despite Brzeski being the cleaner striker on the feet, I believe that the small cage will favor the wrestling sensibilities of Walker.
An underdog win wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Walker to pick up a sloppy decision win on the scorecards.
Ignacio Bahamondes (-340) vs. Christos Giagos (+260)
Filling out the main card is another fun matchup at lightweight between Ignacio Bahamondes and Christos Giagos.
Even though Giagos has all the tools to give Bahamondes hell early, the Kill Cliff FC fighter has an unfortunate history of hitting a wall when forced to fight past the 7-minute mark.
Bahamondes may have some holes that he still needs to shore up in the wrestling realm, but the Chilean fighter has a deceptive submission game and traditionally fights well in the smaller octagon (currently standing 3-1 in the UFC Apex).
I’ll pick Bahamondes to survive the early storm and score a club-and-sub win in Round 3.
Chepe Mariscal (+100) vs. Morgan Charriere (-120)
Serving as a solid offering at featherweight is a matchup between Chepe Mariscal and Morgan Charriere.
Regardless of the number of losses you might see on his record, Charriere is one of the most promising French prospects currently signed with the UFC.
However, despite being the cleaner striker on the feet, I suspect that the smaller octagon will encourage the dogfights in which Mariscal traditionally thrives.
A knockout win by Charriere wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll pick the deceptively experienced Mariscal to make it ugly and edge a narrow decision on the scorecards.
Alexander Hernandez (-200) vs. Damon Jackson (+160)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a featherweight battle between Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson.
Both fighters have quietly been making improvements that they don’t necessarily get credit for, so this fight is a fantastic opportunity for a showcase on each side.
Despite being on a two-fight skid, Jackson is a dogged fighter who comes from a great camp in Fortis MMA. If Hernandez can’t find a finish early, then I believe that Jackson will be live for the upset late.
I wouldn’t mind being wrong, but I’ll take Hernandez to win by knockout in Round 1.
Brendan Allen (-210) vs. Chris Curtis (+168)
In keeping with the quiet theme of rematches that I’ve been citing since 2022, the main event at the Apex will feature yet another rematch at middleweight between Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I always smirk whenever the fighter who lost the first fight is favored the second time around.
Don’t get me wrong: Allen has made a ton of improvements since their first meeting and is the younger fighter with a higher ceiling.
However, you can also argue that Allen hasn’t faced a solid counter-wrestler and striker since the last time he met Curtis.
Stated biases for Curtis and his team aside, I still believe that this is a tough fight for Allen stylistically.
For that reason, I’ll pick Curtis to win by knockout in Round 3.
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