Last week’s NFL primetime games provided a perfect case study in cashing winning tickets by betting on the UNDER.
The Seahawks and 49ers entered their Thanksgiving night game with a closing total of 43. San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk scored the final touchdown of the game in a 31-13 win over Seattle. The OVER cashed only when Jake Moody made the extra point.
Things reverted back to what has become normal with the Ravens beating the Chargers 20-10 on Sunday Night Football. The Bears outlasted the Vikings 12-10 on Monday Night Football in a game that never had a chance to go OVER.
Chicago failed to score after a nine-minute opening drive, and both teams traded field goals to make it 3-3 at the half. It’s that damn difficult to hit in primetime if you like to bet on higher-scoring affairs during a 2023 NFL season that’s been plagued overall by bad quarterback play.
The UNDER has cashed in 29 of 39 “island games” this season, hitting at a ridiculous rate of 74.36% in primetime. It’s akin to watching Iowa play every week.
How to bet OVER/UNDERs in NFL Week 13 primetime games
Let’s take a look at NFL Week 13 primetime games and see if there’s any evidence to suggest betting on the OVER.
Thursday Night Football — Seahawks vs. Cowboys (O/U )Sunday Night Football — Chiefs vs. Packers (O/U )Monday Night Football — Bengals vs. Jaguars (O/U )
Thursday Night Football: Seahawks vs. Cowboys
Dallas hasn’t been a very nice host at AT&T Stadium this year. The Cowboys have routed all five opponents they’ve faced at home and averaged 41 points in the process.
Now comes a Seattle team that is struggling after losing three of its last four games. The lone win was a 29-26 nail biter over the Commanders.
Both teams played on Thanksgiving, so there’s not a short week to contend with as per usual with TNF games. This is the biggest total among NFL Week 13 primetime games, but the OVER is getable if the Cowboys maintain their high-octane scoring ways at home.
The OVER has cashed in four of five homes games for Dallas this season.
Play.
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Sunday Night Football: Chiefs vs. Packers
Weather might impact Sunday Night Football in Green Bay, and that could potentially help UNDER bettors for Chiefs vs. Packers. You think of Kansas City as being a high-scoring team, but the Chiefs have gone UNDER the total in eight of 11 games this season.
If Aaron Rodgers was starting at quarterback for the Packers, we’d be more inclined to consider the OVER. The UNDER has cashed in five of Green Bay’s last seven games.
Pass.
Monday Night Football: Bengals vs. Jaguars
It’s hard not to do a double take when you see a total this low involving the Bengals. Then you remember that there’s a different JB starting at QB. Jake Browning took over for Joe Burrow after the latter went down for the season with a wrist injury.
No offense to Browning, but Cincinnati’s offense is a shell of itself without Burrow behind center. The Bengals mustered all of 10 points in Sunday’s loss at home to Pittsburgh.
Fun fact: The UNDER is 12-1 in Monday Night Football games this season.
Pass.
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Author(s)
Kris Johnson is lead writer with Catena Media. With more than 15 years in sports journalism, his work has been featured in Sports Business Journal, Sports Business Daily, The Sporting News, NASCAR Illustrated, and more.
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