With victory over Vietnam in their opening match of the 2023 Women’s World Cup, the U.S. took the first important step towards qualification to the knockout stage, but they slipped in their second match, held to a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands in a rematch of the 2019 Women’s World Cup final.
The U.S. was poor throughout the Netherlands match, especially in the first half, when they trailed in a Women’s World Cup group stage match for the first time since 2011.
U.S. manager Vlatko Andonovski will see qualification to the knockout round as merely the first step toward the ultimate goal of hoisting the Women’s World Cup trophy, hoping to be the first nation ever to win three consecutive FIFA World Cup titles.
Still, they must get through the group stage before even thinking about progressing through the knockout rounds, and with a tough match against a feisty Portugal side, there’s still work to do.
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Group E standings
Note: Overall goal differential is the first tiebreaker
Team
PTS
GP
W
L
D
GF
GA
GD
1. USA
4
2
1
0
1
4
1
+3
2. Netherlands
4
2
1
0
1
2
1
+1
3. Portugal
3
2
1
1
0
2
1
+1
4. Vietnam
0
2
0
2
0
0
5
-5
How USWNT can qualify to Round of 16 at Women’s World Cup
The USA have advanced to the knockout round of the Women’s World Cup at every single tournament to date, winning the group in seven of the eight previous tournaments.
As the No. 1-ranked team in the world, and the betting favorite coming into the tournament, surely the U.S. will have their goal be to finish atop the Group E standings, but even if they fall short of that, qualification is the bare minimum for such a global power.
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How USA qualify for 2023 Women’s World Cup Round of 16
After the draw against the Netherlands, the U.S. have just one more group stage game left, set to take on Portugal on Tuesday, August 1.
After Portugal defeated Vietnam in their second group match, the scenario is simple for the United States in the last round. They must win or draw against Portugal to advance, and would almost surely be eliminated with a defeat.
The only way the U.S. can advance with a defeat is if the Netherlands also lose to Vietnam, which is theoretically possible but not realistic.
Win or draw vs. Portugal
Loss vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss vs. Vietnam AND U.S. maintain goal differential advantage over Netherlands
How USA can win Group E
Topping the Group E standings will come down to the final day of group action, and the U.S. are somewhat behind the eight ball as they have a tougher final day opponent than their rival for first place (Netherlands).
Since they start the day level with the Netherlands on points, goal difference could come into play as the first of the group tiebreakers if both win (or both draw) in their final group match.
Currently, the USA have a two-goal differential advantage over the Netherlands, but the United States have to play Portugal, while the Dutch get an easier assignment against Vietnam on the final day.
The USA can win Group E with:
Win vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss or draw vs. Vietnam
Win vs. Portugal AND Netherlands win vs. Vietnam AND USA win tiebreaker vs. Netherlands (goal difference, or total goals if necessary)
Draw vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss or draw vs. Vietnam
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USA path to Women’s World Cup final
There are two paths for the USA if they want to reach the 2023 Women’s World Cup final.
As Group E winner:
Round of 16:
Sat, Aug. 5
vs. 2G (likely Italy, Argentina or South Africa)
Quarterfinals:
Thu, Aug. 10
vs. 1A or 2C (Switzerland or Spain)
Semifinals:
Tue, Aug. 15
vs. 1C / 2A / 1G / 2E (likely Sweden, Japan, Norway, or Netherlands)
As Group E runner-up:
Round of 16:
Sun, Aug. 6
vs. 1G (likely Sweden)
Quarterfinals:
Fri, Aug. 11
vs. 1C / 2A (Japan or Norway)
Semifinals:
Tue, Aug. 15
vs. 1A / 2C / 1E / 2G (Switzerland, Spain, Netherlands, Italy or South Africa)
MORE: Revisiting USA vs. Netherlands 2019 World Cup final
How USWNT would be eliminated in Women’s World Cup group
The USWNT has never been eliminated from a Women’s World Cup in group stage play, having qualified for the knockout round in all eight previous editions of the competition.
Scenarios for the United States to be eliminated from group stage contention in 2023 boils down to losing against Portugal in the final group game.
Should they avoid defeat against Portugal, the USA would qualify for the knockout stage.
The USWNT surely have their sights set on winning the group, but qualification is the first and most important goal, and they would do so with any kind of result against both European opponents.
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